GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is trading mixed into Thursday's noon hour as the cattle contracts are still receiving ample support, but the lean hog contracts are feeling pressured and trading lower. Still no developments have surfaced in the fed cash cattle market, but trade should develop here shortly. September corn is up 4 1/2 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is up $2.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 274.82 points and the NASDAQ is up 69.50 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 15,900 mt for 2025 were up 88% from the previous week and 40% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (6,100 mt), South Korea (4,000 mt) and Mexico (1,800 mt). Pork net sales of 31,000 mt for 2025 were down 22% from the previous week but up 27% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were China (12,500 mt), Mexico (7,000 mt) and South Korea (2,800 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
With the unseasonal rally in boxed beef prices, the live cattle complex continues to challenge the market's resistance threshold, which also happens to be its all-time market high, as the cattle complex's strong fundamental footing of limited supplies amid unfathomable demand continues to lend support beyond anyone's wildest belief. August live cattle are up $1.27 at $237.57, October live cattle are up $1.22 at $230.87 and December live cattle are up $1.50 at $232.22. It will be especially interesting to see what develops this week in the fed cash cattle market as though packers were able to buy some supply last week and commit those cattle to the nearby delivery option, they still need to stay engaged enough in the market to avoid being short bought in the weeks ahead and feedlot managers haven't been easy for packers to deal with in recent weeks either. Asking prices are firm in the South at $238 to $240, but are still not established in the North. Packer demand could improve at any moment, but at this point, no trade has developed just yet.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.41 ($378.27) and select up $2.18 ($353.54) with a movement of 45 loads (21.95 loads of choice, 7.80 loads of select, 10.13 loads of trim and 5.28 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex is again pushing into the midday fully higher except for the August 2025 contract. The slight pullback in the August contract likely has more to do with the fact that traders are moving their positions from the August contract into the currently most actively traded September contract, and not because of any fundamental rhyme or reason, as demand is just robust in the countryside; there's no other way to describe it. August feeders are down $0.05 at $344.97, September feeders are up $1.17 at $345.40 and October feeders are up $1.70 at $344.10.
LEAN HOGS:
One would think that on a day when midday pork cutout values are up over $4.00, the market would be rejoicing. With traders battling resistance pressure and with the morning's export sales report weaker, the market is trading lower into midday Thursday. October lean hogs are down $).97 at $91.00, December lean hogs are down $1.00 at $83.52 and February lean hogs are down $0.62 at $86.25. More than anything, it seems as though the market's resistance pressure is affecting traders most. Although they thought they had enough support to drive the complex higher earlier this week, the market's fundamentals haven't been as collectively supportive as initially hoped for.
The projected lean hog index for 8/6/2025 is up $0.50 at $110.10, and the actual index for 8/5/2025 is up $0.04 at $109.60. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $6.87 with a weighted average price of $107.48, ranging from $105.50 to $113.00 on 1,565 head and a five-day rolling average of $111.85. Pork cutouts total 126.89 loads with 119.92 loads of pork cuts and 6.96 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.06, $119.28.
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