GENERAL COMMENTS:
The cattle complex is rallying into Tuesday's noon hour as beef demand is red hot. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex is trading in the opposite direction as demand isn't as strong. September corn is down 12 1/2 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is up $5.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 473.30 points and NASDAQ is up 243.05 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The biggest news for the live cattle complex this morning has undoubtedly been the wild rally in midday boxed beef prices, which aren't up mildly, but up a dramatic $8.50 for choice and up $5.39 for select. Thankfully, this positive fundamental development has consequently helped drive the live cattle contracts higher as all of the contracts are trading more than $1.00 higher into Tuesday's noon hour. October live cattle are up $1.57 at $227.67, December live cattle are up $1.27 at $229.75 and February live cattle are up $1.15 at $230.85. Still no news has developed in the cash cattle complex as no bids or asking prices have been posted.
Tuesday's WASDE report was rather bullish for the beef and cattle markets of 2025. Beef production for 2025 was decreased by 262 million pounds as both fed and non-fed cattle slaughter speeds have been reduced and carcass weights have decline slightly as well. But the major jaw-dropping data in the report was the quarterly steer price projections. Steer prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $238 (up $12.00 from last month's estimate), fourth quarter steer prices are expected to average $240 (up $11 from last month's estimate), steer prices in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $242 (up $15 from last month's estimate) and steer prices in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to average $243 (up $15 from last month's estimate). 2025 beef imports were reduced by 103 million pounds as tariff restrictions are expected to limit Brazilian beef imports. And 2025 beef exports were reduced by 46 million pounds as supplies remain tight domestically.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $8.50 ($390.02) and select up $5.39 ($365.00) with a movement of 69 loads (38.28 loads of choice, 16.08 loads of select, 7.17 loads of trim and 7.93 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Keeping with slightly stronger tone of Monday, the feeder cattle complex is trading higher into Tuesday's noon hour. August feeders are up $1.72 at $341.95, September feeders are up $1.77 at $342.25 and October feeders are up $1.50 at $341.17. As seen Monday afternoon through the day, the CME feeder cattle index closed at $$341.04, up $3.83 from the previous day. Feeder cattle demand remains red hot in the countryside as buyers still have orders to fill and they know supplies aren't going to become numerous anytime soon.
LEAN HOGS:
With both pork cutout values and cash prices lower this morning, it comes as no real surprise that the lean hog complex is trading lower into the noon hour. October lean hogs are down $0.50 at $91.27, December lean hogs are down $0.90 at $83.32 and February lean hogs are down $0.77 at $86.15. And with the spot October contract nearing resistance pressure (at $92.50), it's unlikely that without robust fundamental support, the contracts are going to trade higher and challenge that threshold.
The projected lean hog index for 8/11/2025 is down $0.18 at $109.84, and the actual index for 8/8/2025 is down $0.23 at $110.02. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.42 with a weighted average price of $106.35, ranging from $103.00 to $110.00 on 1,195 head and a five-day rolling average of $110.73. Pork cutouts total 191.55 loads with 170.11 loads of pork cuts and 21.44 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.91, $116.18.
Tuesday's WASDE report shared mostly positive news for the pork and hog markets of 2025. Pork production for 2025 was reduced by 557 million pounds as chain speeds have been and are expected to remain slower, and carcass weights are lighter as well. Luckily, the quarterly price projections saw an increase compared to last month's report as hog prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $77 (up $1.00 from last month's estimate), hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $67 (up $2.00 from last month's estimate), hog prices in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $64 (unchanged from last month's estimate) and hog prices in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to average $69 (up $1.00 from last month's report). Pork imports for 2025 were decreased by 9 million pounds, but pork exports for 2025 were increased by 9 million pounds.
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