GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle sector dipped lower before the day's close, but the lean hog complex continued to rally. Friday's Cattle on Feed report was extremely bullish, with placements lighter than a year ago. July corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 35.16 points and the NASDAQ is down 98.86 points.
Friday's export report shared that beef net sales of 11,700 mt for 2025 were down 24% from the previous week and 9% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (4,000 mt), South Korea (3,200 mt) and Mexico (1,500 mt). Pork net sales of 28,200 mt for 2025 were up noticeably from the previous week but down 1% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (16,200 mt), Japan (5,000 mt) and Australia (1,600 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
Upon seeing the live cattle contracts dip lower, and upon seeing the slight dip in cash cattle prices, I don't think there's anyone in the cattle business who doesn't wish that the market would have closed up shop at noon as opposed to trading until the day's closing bell. August live cattle closed $1.85 lower at $209.82, October live cattle closed $1.87 lower at $207.35 and December live cattle closed $1.57 lower at $208.32. Throughout the afternoon there were some cattle traded in the South at $228, which is $7.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Thus far this week Northern dressed cattle have traded at mostly $376, which is $4.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and up until the trade that developed this afternoon, most of the live cattle that sold in the Southern plains had traded at $231 which is $5.00 lower than last week's weighted average.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 102,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 16,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 1,000 head. The week's total slaughter is projected to be around 554,000 head, 4,000 head less than a week ago and 57,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $3.29 ($390.50) and select up $2.36 ($376.95) with a movement of 93 loads (66.76 loads of choice, 8.88 loads of select, 9.99 loads of trim and 6.87 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With packers able to work the market lower this week, it's likely that they're going to try to do so again next week.
FEEDER CATTLE:
It wasn't surprising to see the feeder cattle complex close lower given the fact that the live cattle market closed lower too. I understand that from a fundamental point of view, it's beyond maddening to see the futures contracts dropping lower while supplies are thin and feeder cattle prices are still strong. However, the decision to move the futures market lower was solely based on the market's technicals. It had nothing to do with how the market was performing from a fundamental standpoint. On Monday one would hope that today's bullish Cattle on Feed report would help perk the market's morale, but with traders seeming almost unwilling to acknowledge any fundamental support in the marketplace there's a chance that the report could be overlooked. DTN's Cattle on Feed Comments:
The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week feeder steers and steer calves traded steady to $5.00 lower, and feeder heifers traded $2.00 to $6.00 lower. But heifer calves under 500 pounds sold $8.00 to $12.00 lower, and those over 500 pounds sold steady to $2.00 lower. The sale barn report did note that the summer's heat and humidity are upon the area, which is making any unweaned calves that haven't been vaccinated sell for a sharp discount. The CME feeder cattle index 6/19/2025: down $1.63, $310.99.
LEAN HOGS:
Although the cattle complex closed lower, the lean hog contracts were able to rally throughout the day as pork demand remained extremely strong. July lean hogs closed $0.60 higher at $112.77, August lean hogs closed $0.45 higher at $112.45 and October lean hogs closed $0.87 higher at $96.02. It was pretty impressive to note that on this afternoon's pork cutout report none of the major cuts closed lower. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.66 with a weighted average price of $110.46 on 1,615 head. Pork cutouts total 264.51 loads, with 236.76 loads of pork cuts and 27.75 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.16, $122.14. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 461,000 head, 26,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 15,000 head. The CME lean hog index 6/18/2025: up $1.25, $107.59.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. Packers aren't typically aggressive in the cash market on Monday, but given the strong pork demand the market is currently seeing, there's a chance that they could be.
No comments:
Post a Comment