GENERAL COMMENTS:
Livestock markets ended the day and week with positive moves as cattle and lean hog futures both posted sizable gains Friday afternoon. Cash cattle trade appears to be the main focus through the end of the week with weekly prices generally $10 to $12 per cwt above week-ago levels. The aggressive cash market support seen in the market through early June is expected to help bring additional underlying support to the complex, although there remain questions if this price support will be able to be sustained long term. But for now, traders in all segments remain extremely bullish. This has helped push futures contracts to contract highs, and many are uncertain just how much higher prices may go before things start cooling off. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.98 with a weighted average of $110.51 on 2,570 hogs. July corn closed down 6 at $4.103 and July soybean meal closed down $4.50 at $276.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 106.59 at 42,982.43.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures closed steady to lower, with spot month June contracts battling back from early losses, closing unchanged at $221.60 per cwt. The underlying pressure seen earlier in the week continues to add softness to the entire complex as traders continue to back away from market highs seen earlier this month. June futures are still holding above the 40-day moving average, but the rest of the complex remains below this threshold after breaking below this point in the last few days. Given the current price levels well above $200 per cwt in all nearby contracts, the market is still a long way away from a major sell-off. But technically, traders are looking for some additional underlying support to be established before actively stepping back into the market.
Cash cattle country remains very quiet this afternoon with asking prices noted around $228 to $230 in the South, but they are still not established in the North. Bids remain very elusive, and significant trade volume will be delayed until Thursday and/or Friday. June live cattle closed unchanged, August live cattle closed $0.58 lower at $208.975 and October live cattle closed $0.60 lower at $206.35.
Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head, steady with a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.69 ($394.94) and select down $6.12 ($376.29) with a movement of 104.82 loads (58.77 loads of choice, 25.00 loads of select, 8.87 loads of trim and 12.18 loads of ground beef).
THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Cash cattle activity is expected to remain sluggish early Thursday, although more interest is likely as the day progresses. Given the pullback in futures and cash values last week, steady to moderately lower prices are not out of the question at the end of the week.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle closed mixed after trading lower through the first half of the trading session. Continued softness in grain market trade and lack of support in live cattle trade is keeping feeder cattle futures unsettled, with the potential to move prices in either direction over the coming days. Nearby contracts are hovering at or near the 40-day moving average price over the past couple of trading days. A significant shift below these levels could limit market momentum and start to impact technical trade direction through the next couple of weeks. Although volume through the rest of this week is expected to remain stable to active, markets may become much more sluggish next week due to the Fourth of July Holiday quickly approaching. August feeders closed $0.05 higher at $302.3, September feeders closed $0.15 higher at $302.6 and October feeders closed $0.10 higher at $300.75. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 23: up $0.27, $310.6.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog futures bounced higher Wednesday, breaking away from market pressure still developing in cattle and grain markets. Although the quarterly hogs and pigs report, which will be released Thursday usually does not cause significant market shifts, the general expectations that the report will show more of the same production trend as seen over the past several months is helping to bring additional support to summer contract prices. July and August futures continue to hold well above $110 per cwt, based on current and expected short-term demand for pork. Late-year price levels still remain in question as traders are still uncertain of trade and tariff impact as well as other economic and global factors affecting long-term pork prices. July lean hogs closed $0.60 higher at $112.825, August lean hogs closed $0.28 higher at $111.225 and October lean hogs closed $0.25 higher at $95.725. Wednesday's hog slaughter is estimated at 478,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 239.68 loads with 203.31 loads of pork cuts and 36.37 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.25 at $121.81. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 23: up $0.89, $110.44.
THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Limited early morning direction is expected to be seen in cash hog prices Thursday. Moderate focus will be placed on the afternoon release of the June 1st Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, but this may still limit packer initial movement through the rest of the week.
No comments:
Post a Comment