GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a wild day for the cattle complex as traders ran both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts higher thanks to the added support of the fed cash cattle market. Throughout the day live cattle traded at $230 to $232 which is $8.00 to $10.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and some Northern dressed cattle have been reported at $380 which is $13.00 higher than last week's weighted average. July corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is down $0.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 108.00 points and the NASDAQ is down 162.04 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 9,000 metric tons (mt) for 2025 were down 39% from the previous week and 27% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (4,500 mt), Japan (2,800 mt) and Canada (1,000 mt). Pork net sales of 36,400 mt for 2025 were up 19% from the previous week and 25% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were China (12,700 mt), Mexico (12,000 mt) and Japan (3,000 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
It was fully assumed that if the fed cash cattle market traded higher this week traders would continue their support of the contracts, but I didn't believe that traders would run this wildly with the marketplace. Upon seeing Wednesday's afternoon trade and then seeing the continued support of the live cattle sales today in Kansas and then later the few sales in Nebraska. Traders didn't bat an eye at advancing the nearby live cattle contracts $2.00 to $4.00 higher and pushing the spot August contract to new contract highs. June live cattle closed $4.50 higher at $222.90, August live cattle closed $4.47 higher at $216.82 and October live cattle closed $3.37 higher at $213.97. Around the noon hour, there were more live cattle traded in the South at $230 which is $8.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and higher than the business done on Wednesday, which mostly happened at $225 to $228. But, prices only got sweeter as the day went on as trade at $232 ($10.00 higher) was posted in Texas, and some sales were reported in Nebraska dressed at $380, which is $13.00 higher than last week's weighted average.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head, steady with a week and a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.69 ($366.85) and select down $0.11 ($356.61) with a movement of 97 loads (55.51 loads of choice, 14.33 loads of select, 20.13 loads of trim and 7.23 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. The prices seen this week in the South will likely remain the theme for any more cattle that trade on Friday, but it's anyone's guess at this point how much higher prices will be in the North as more dressed cattle need to trade.
FEEDER CATTLE:
It was also a wild, rallying type of day for the feeder cattle complex as traders saw the rally in the live cattle complex and didn't want to have the feeder cattle market fall behind. So, within no time flat, the feeder cattle complex rallied as well and kept its momentum through the day's close. August feeders closed $5.27 higher at $309.15, September feeders closed $5.15 higher at $308.30 and October feeders closed $4.80 higher at $306.07. At Clovis Livestock Auction in Clovis, New Mexico, compared to last week, steer calves weighing 400 to 500 pounds sold $20.00 to $25.00 higher, but those weighing 550 to 600 pounds traded $6.00 lower. Feeder steers weighing 650 to 700 pounds sold $2.00 higher, and those weighing 950 to 1,000 pounds traded $20.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold $10.00 to $15.00 higher and slaughter bulls sold $10.00 to $12.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 39%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/4/2025: up $1.35, $304.86.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex closed mixed as one could tell that the market desired to trade fully higher, but with the mixed demand signals this week from consumers, traders elected to play it safe and keep the nearby contracts just shy of steady. July lean hogs closed $0.22 lower at $104.80, August lean hogs closed $0.45 lower at $107.05 and October lean hogs closed $0.05 lower at $91.07. This afternoon pork cutout values did close higher, and most of the cuts saw day-over-day increases – but even so, traders remained leery of being too supportive. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.20 with a weighted average price of $101.85 on 6,246 head. Pork cutouts total 249.20 loads with 215.93 loads of pork cuts and 33.27 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.50, $108.12. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head, 5,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/3/2025: up $0.41, $96.75.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, it's likely that packers have bought the vast majority of their hogs for the week and that prices will be lower on Friday.
No comments:
Post a Comment