GENERAL COMMENTS:
Although prices traded steady to $5.00 higher in the fed cash cattle market, traders are concerned that the market is overbought and elected to let the contracts drift lower throughout the day even though fundamental support was ample. Throughout the day dressed cattle were traded at $380 which is steady with last week's weighted average and some more live cattle trade developed in the South at $235 which is $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average. July corn is up 1 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $0.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 101.85 points and the NASDAQ is up 46.60 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 15,300 mt for 2025 were up 71% from the previous week and 21% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (6,100 mt), Japan (3,200 mt) and Mexico (2,700 mt). Pork net sales of 9,700 mt for 2025 were down 73% from the previous week and 70% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (3,600 mt), Canada (1,900 mt) and Colombia (1,400 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
It was a slightly disappointing day for the live cattle complex as traders took one look at the cash cattle market's trade (steady to $5.00 higher) and didn't seem to give feedlot managers the credit they deserved as traders still let the contracts drift slightly lower. August live cattle closed $1.07 lower at $216.95, October live cattle closed $0.67 lower at $214.35 and December live cattle closed $0.47 lower at $214.40. A steady to $5.00 higher trend in the cash market when prices are at an all-time high coupled with the fact that boxed beef prices are higher should merit stronger trade on the board – but traders are seeming exhausted and somewhat concerned that the market is overbought, which is why we're currently seeing the downward trend despite strong market fundamentals. Throughout the day, dressed cattle were traded at $380, which is steady with last week's weighted average and some more live cattle trade developed in the South at $235, which is $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head, 5,000 head less than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago.
Thursday's WASDE report shared supportive news for both the cattle and beef markets of 2025. Beef production for 2025 was decreased by 65 million pounds as fed steer and heifer processing was lower than anticipated in the second quarter of 2025, and production throughout the rest of the year is expected to be light. Quarterly steer price projections showed a positive increase as steer prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $226 (up $9.00 from last month) steer prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $226 (up $10.00 from last month) steer prices in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $229 (up $9.00 from last month) and steer prices in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $227 (up $5.00 from last month). Beef imports for 2025 were increased by 115 million pounds as Oceania and South America continue to ship substantial amounts of production into the U.S., and beef exports for 2025 also increased 45 million pounds.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.96 ($376.72) and select up $2.32 ($363.07) with a movement of 91 loads (50.57 loads of choice, 15.85 loads of select, 13.06 loads of trim and 11.45 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that cattle have now traded in both regions, it's likely that prices will remain steady with the week's trend.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Once again, following directly in the footsteps of the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle market is also mostly lower. August feeders closed $0.17 higher at $311.25, September feeders closed $0.25 lower at $310.55 and October feeders closed $0.40 lower at $308.45. One would have logically thought that the fed cash cattle market's steady to $5.00 higher trend would have been enough fundamental support amid stronger boxed beef prices to garnish higher trade in the futures complex, but obviously, traders are beginning to feel that the market is overbought and that it's time to sit on their hands for a bit and let the market breath awhile. At Clovis Livestock Auction in Clovis, New Mexico, compared to last week, steer calves weighing 400 to 450 pounds traded $2.00 lower, steer calves weighing 450 to 600 pounds sold $5.00 to $6.00 higher. Heifer calves weighing 400 to 550 pounds sold $8.00 to $12.00 higher, but heifers weighing 550 to 600 pounds traded $6.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold $5.00 to $7.00 lower and slaughter bulls traded $3.00 to $8.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 37%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/11/2025: up $1.23, $315.85.
LEAN HOGS:
It was a rock 'n roll type of day for the lean hog complex as even though the futures market's gains may have been minimal, the market still closed higher, and most importantly, consumer demand remained stronger. July lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $108.90, August lean hogs closed $0.02 lower at $110.17 and October lean hogs closed $0.17 higher at $93.92. Again, this afternoon it was impressive to note that the only cut that closed slightly lower was the picnic, but otherwise, all the other cuts closed higher, which aided in the carcass prices' higher close. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.38 with a weighted average price of $105.95 on 5,455 head. Pork cutouts totaled 215.58 loads, with 184.85 loads of pork cuts and 30.73 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.42, $114.50. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head, steady with a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago.
Thursday's WASDE report shared mixed news for pork and hog markets of 2025. Pork production for 2025 was unchanged from last month's report at 27,996 million pounds. Quarterly price projections were supportive as each quarter was increased from last month's anticipation. Hog prices in the second quarter are expected to average $69 (up $1.00 from last month), hog prices in the third quarter are expected to average $74 (up $3.00 from last month), hog prices in the fourth quarter are expected to average $63 (up $3.00 from last month) and hog prices in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $63 (up $1.00 from last month). Pork imports for 2025 were increased by 15 million pounds, while pork exports were decreased by 110 million pounds. The CME lean hog index 6/10/2025: up $0.94, $100.91.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, packers have likely fulfilled their needs for the week.
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