GENERAL COMMENTS:
Livestock futures have seen another slow and sluggish start Thursday, although light to moderate buyer support seen in nearby feeder cattle trade is helping to bring some much-needed stability to the entire cattle complex. Given the early week pressure in cattle futures prices and lack of optimism over the last week and a half when it comes to renewed cash market support, market stability seems to be holding through the Thursday session. Lean hog futures are expected to see limited trade through the rest of the morning with light to moderate losses seen in nearby and deferred contracts. July corn is down 1/2 at $4.098 and July soybean meal is down $4.40 at $271.6. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 347.66 at 43,330.09.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures have hovered in a narrow trading range through Thursday morning with limited early support in spot June contracts being offset by very limited and narrow losses in the rest of the complex. Traders see very little new direction in the market at the end of the week with the focus on cash market moves and the ability to sustain beef values heading into the holiday week. Overall trade may become increasingly sluggish next week due to the Fourth of July holiday, but traders still remain focused on the recent market support which has developed over the past two months, and continue to look for additional support to be seen in order to curb the current market correction seen over the past two weeks. According to the latest weekly export sales report, for the period of June 13 to June 19, beef net sales of 14,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025 were up 20% from the previous week and 11% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (6,800 MT), South Korea (3,000 MT), Taiwan (1,100 MT,), Canada (900 MT), and Hong Kong (600 MT). Exports of 12,600 MT were down 7% from the previous week and 3% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (3,800 MT), Japan (3,400 MT), Taiwan (1,400 MT), Mexico (1,300 MT), and Canada (900 MT).
Cash cattle markets are starting to slowly develop with a few bids on the table in parts of Nebraska. But they are well below current asking prices of around $228 to $230 in the South and $376-plus in the North. Packer inquiry will continue to improve as the day progresses. We are hearing a couple of packing plans will be dark or running with limited production today and/or Friday. The Grand Island, Nebraska, JBS plant will limit production due to flooding, heavy rainfall and lagoon issues; production is expected to drop to between 1,000 to 1,500 head, down from the usual 5,200 head. Tyson's facility in Amarillo, Texas, will be dark today and Friday due to labor issues, as workers vote on whether to strike or not. There is said to be picketing around the plant, with labor demands mostly centering around wages and more time off. Amarillo has a daily slaughter of around 5,500 head. June live cattle are $0.10 higher at $221.7, August live cattle are $0.50 higher at $209.475, October live cattle are steady.
Boxed beef prices are Mixed: choice down $0.57 ($394.37) and select up $2.27 ($378.56) with a movement of 60.36 loads (39.95 loads of choice, 9.00 loads of select, 3.79 loads of trim and 7.62 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle futures are mixed with light but stable buyer support moving into nearby contracts Thursday. Limited activity is expected to be seen through the rest of the day with traders looking for additional longer term direction from both cash cattle trade at the end of the week and outside market direction. August feeders are $1.05 higher at $303.35, September feeders are $0.75 higher at $303.35 and October feeders are $0.60 higher at $301.35.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog futures have posted light to moderate losses during morning trade Thursday. Traders continue to look ahead to the afternoon release of the June 1 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, but early expectations see significant fireworks from the report. Many feel overall hog numbers and breeding intentions will be fractionally changed from year ago levels. Given that these reports are quarterly in nature, most of the expected impact is likely already factored into the market over the past several weeks. But a surprise in the report could bring about some market shifts early Friday. But for now, traders remain focused on current fundamental market direction. In the weekly export sales and shipments report, total sales for the week was reported at 51,400 metric tons with the largest buyer being Mexico at 30,600 metric tons. Exports for the week totaled 39,900 metric tons with Mexico once again accounting for the bulk of the export business with 16,000 metric tons. Other major countries with purchases through the week were South Korea, Japan and China. July lean hogs are $0.35 lower at $112.475, August lean hogs are $0.78 lower at $110.45 and October lean hogs are $0.68 lower at $95.05. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, down $3.92 with a weighted average of $108.09, ranging from 102.00 to 110.00 on 652 head with a five-day rolling average of 110.85. Pork Cutouts totaled 99.01 loads with 83.61 loads of pork cuts and 15.40 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $1.00 at $119.11.
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