Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Packers Panicked and Dumped Cattle Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

What an absolutely mess of a day for the cattle complex as traders let both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts flounder lower through Thursday's close. But even so, some light cash cattle trade was noted in the North at $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average. September corn is up 2 1/4 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is up $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 330.30 points and the NASDAQ is down 7.22 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 8,500 metric tons (mt) for 2025 were down 49% from the previous week and 30% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (1,700 mt), South Korea (1,200 mt) and Taiwan (1,000 mt). Pork net sales of 39,500 mt for 2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 85% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (23,100 mt), Japan (8,100 mt) and South Korea (3,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

What a day, what a day. A total turn of events for the cattle complex as the market closed severely lower Thursday afternoon. Whether it be because traders were anxious about the ramifications of the 50% tariff that could go into effect on Brazilian beef and cattle imports in seven days, or the sole fact that the futures complex is overextended and overbought -- in true trader fashion -- today's move seems entirely overdone. August live cattle closed $5.30 lower at $227.77, October live cattle closed $6.57 lower at $223.15 and December live cattle closed $5.97 lower at $223.92. But even with the steep decline in the futures complex, the cash cattle market still saw some light trade develop in the North at $383, which is $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Asking prices remain firm at $236 plus in the South and $385 plus in the North. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 111,000 head, 6,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.67 ($361.32) and select up $0.46 ($341.37) with a movement of 109 loads (64.73 loads of choice, 16.13 loads of select, 18.02 loads of trim and 10.12 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Given that some light trade has been noted at higher prices, it's likely that that's going to be the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The futures complex merely pulled the plug on the feeder cattle market's support as its contracts closed anywhere from $7.00 to $8.00 throughout the day, but that was solely a technical decision as demand remains incredible for calves in the countryside. August feeders closed $7.57 lower at $331.37, September feeders closed $8.20 lower at $331.55 and October feeders closed $8.37 lower at $330.17. At the Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, compared to last week, feeder steers weighing 600 to 975 pounds traded $2.00 to $5.00 higher. And steer calves weighing 350 to 600 pounds sold $20.00 to $40.00 higher, with the market's most interest seen on those weighing the lightest. Heifers weighing 375 to 975 pounds sold $6.00 to $20.00 higher on light receipts. Slaughter cows and bulls sold steady to $2.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 84%. The CME feeder cattle index 7/30/2025: up $1.98, $335.01.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex won traders' attention throughout the day as they weren't going to bite whatsoever into supporting the cattle contracts. But with the slight stabilization in the futures complex for the hog sector, traders didn't seem to mind that the market's fundamentals were weaker; they traded the contracts higher anyway. August lean hogs closed $0.10 higher at $107.12, October lean hogs closed $0.37 higher at $89.57 and December lean hogs closed $0.52 higher at $81.72. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.67 with a weighted average price of $111.67 on 1,615 head. Pork cutouts totaled 243.16 loads with 208.52 loads of pork cuts and 34.64 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.00, $114.00. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 479,000 head, 14,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 7/29/2025: up $0.10, $110.51. The CME lean hog index 7/29/2025: up $0.10, $110.51.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With packers diving wildly into the market on Wednesday, they're likely done buying this week in the cash hog market.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Tariff Concerns Have Traders Flustered

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Tariff concerns have the cattle complex trading lower into Thursday's noon hour, but that's unlikely going to affect this week's fed cash cattle trade as feedlot managers are holding out for higher prices. Bids of $235 are currently offered in Kansas, but otherwise the market remains quiet. September corn is up 1 3/4 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is up $1.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 46.44 points and NASDAQ is up 210.54 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 8,500 metric tons (mt) for 2025 were down 49% from the previous week and 30% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (1,700 mt), South Korea (1,200 mt) and Taiwan (1,000 mt). Pork net sales of 39,500 mt for 2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 85% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (23,100 mt), Japan (8,100 mt) and South Korea (3,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex has waved its white flag today as traders seem uncertain on what to do with the onset of a 50% tariff affecting beef and cattle imports from Brazil, which goes into effect in seven days. Cattlemen don't mind the fact that Brazilian beef and cattle could face a greater tariff, as truthfully, they want their own product to be marketed as opposed to the imported products. However, where the tricky part of this matter comes into play is in beef prices, and how consumers are going to react. We all know that President Trump uses tariffs as a way to get foreign leaders to the table to negotiate, but if for whatever reason the Brazilian government doesn't budge, domestic consumers could be affected as beef prices would likely trade higher because supplies of beef would become even more limited. Needless to say, it's a situation that we need to keep a very close eye on. If the U.S. beef cowherd wasn't at a 62-year low, the story would be entirely different. Again, most cattle producers wouldn't mind the fact that foreign beef was taxed at a higher rate than in years past.

August live cattle are down $3.40 at $229.67, October live cattle are down $4.42 at $225.30 and December live cattle are down $3.82 at $226.07. There was a small (extremely small) volume of cattle traded in Kansas on Wednesday at $235, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average, but no more sales have transpired today. Bids of $235 are currently being offered in Kansas again, but no more cattle have traded hands. Packer demand should improve at any point in time now. Asking prices are firm in the South at $236 plus and in the North at $390.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.45 ($363.44) and select up $1.04 ($341.95) with a movement of 68 loads (33.90 loads of choice, 11.81 loads of select, 13.27 loads of trim and 9.47 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Because of the announcement that a 50% tariff could go into effect on beef and cattle imports from Brazil -- the feeder cattle complex is trading lower thanks to the morning's announcement. This decision is solely being made because of technical uncertainty, not because it reflects what's going on in the countryside. August feeders are down $3.62 at $335.32, September feeders are down $4.32 at $335.42 and October feeders are down $4.35 at $333.97.

LEAN HOGS:

The cattle complex may be enduring some pressure, but the lean hog contracts have seemed to find some more technical footing in the contracts, which is helping the market trade higher. Unfortunately, it's not because of stronger pork demand or higher cash sales, but solely because of the added stability in the futures complex. August lean hogs are up $0.12 at $107.15, October lean hogs are up $0.02 at $89.40 and December lean hogs are up $0.25 at $81.45.

The projected lean hog index for 7/30/2025 is down $0.14 at $110.37, and the actual index for 7/29/2025 is up $0.06 at $110.51. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.48 with a weighted average price of $111.82, ranging from $104.00 to $117.50 on 1,485 head and a five-day rolling average of $112.68. Pork cutouts total 123.11 loads with 113.90 loads of pork cuts and 9.20 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.51, $114.49.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Higher Cash Cattle Prices Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It is not common for live cattle futures to outpace feeder cattle, but traders became aggressive buyers Wednesday. Part of the strength was likely from the trend remaining higher with no end in sight. Another part may be that packers will need to pay more for cattle this week. There was some very limited cash trade Wednesday at $5.00 higher. We must not view that as the level at which cash will unfold, but it may have set the stage for feedlots to hold. There is an exuberance being exhibited by traders despite the market being technically overbought. Boxed beef prices continue to weaken, with choice down $2.20 and select down $1.57. This is further tightening the margins of packers.

Hog futures found some buying interest after initial weakness, but the buying lacked enthusiasm and was unable to regain the losses of Tuesday. Both cash and cutouts were higher, but traders remain cautious over demand. It has been anticipated that pork demand would improve as beef prices escalated, but so far, the demand increase has been less than expected. The National Daily Direct Hog report showed cash increasing $1.20 with a large number of hogs purchased by packers. Most of their needs for the week may have been met with packers lowering their bids the rest of the week. Pork cutouts showed a minor gain of $0.15. Hog weights averaged 281.1 pounds last week as the summer weather impacts weight gain.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Continued new contract highs and no indication of a ceiling keep traders confident to buy and hold long cattle futures positions.	1)	Boxed beef continues to weaken, reducing packer margins. This will eventually impact the ability of cattle futures to continue to increase.
2)	Light cash trade at $5.00 higher may have set the stage for the week. Feedlots may hold for even higher prices as packers need cattle despite reducing slaughter.	2)	The weakness of boxed beef indicates reduced beef demand. This may be seasonal, but it may also be impacted by high prices.
3)	The bounce of hog futures Wednesday indicates the weakness on Tuesday was not a liquidation phase and likely stopped being triggered when futures fell below support. Trades felt it was a buying opportunity.	3)	Hog futures need to move back above resistance and into the previous trading range, or further selling could develop.
4)	Weekly hog weights decreased by 0.2 pounds last week to an average weight of 282.1 pounds. This is 1.6 pounds below a year ago.	4)	Weekly pork export sales have not been as good as hoped, with the report today possibly continuing the trend.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Continue to Fan the Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex had a powerful day where the cattle contracts continue to surge higher, and the lean hog complex found some support as well. Still no trade has developed in the fed cash cattle market, but prices are expected to be higher again this week. September corn is up 2 1/2 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is down $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 171.71 points and NASDAQ is up 31.38 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex surged throughout Wednesday's trade as traders strongly believe that the fed cash cattle market is going to see higher prices again this week. It was rather impressive to note that the nearby contracts closed mostly $3.00 higher, but all of the live cattle contracts closed over $1.00 higher as the market's bullish moral remains unbridled. August live cattle closed $3.35 higher at $233.07, October live cattle closed $3.27 higher at $229.72 and December live cattle closed $3.15 higher at $229.90. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but as mentioned above, it's fully assumed that prices are going to be higher again this week as packers don't have enough cattle around them. Asking prices are noted at $235 plus in the South, and bids of $235 sat in Kansas throughout the day without feedlot managers taking interest in its offer. Asking prices are still unestablished in the North. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 112,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 8,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.20 ($361.99) and select down $1.57 ($340.91) with a movement of 168 loads (120.81 loads of choice, 24.34 loads of select, 9.78 loads of trim and 13.50 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Feedlot managers and packers are again going to go toe-to-toe this week, and it's anyone guess at this point how much higher prices are going to be.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The market continues to steamroll itself higher and higher and the feeder cattle complex didn't miss out on the opportunity to do just that throughout Wednesday's trade. August feeder cattle closed $2.75 higher at $338.95, September feeder cattle closed $2.67 higher at $339.75 and October feeder cattle closed $2.65 higher at $338.55. Feeder cattle demand in the countryside continues to be red hot, which is undoubtedly helping traders keep their ambitious pace in the futures complex. At Roswell Livestock Auction in Roswell, New Mexico, compared to last week steer calves weighing 450 to 550 pounds sold $17.00 to $20.00 higher, but heifer calves weighing 500 to 600 pounds sold $10.00 to $15.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold $1.00 to $7.00 higher and slaughter bulls traded steady to $5.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 17%. The CME feeder cattle index 7/29/2025: up $0.83, $333.03.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex successfully rounded out the day mostly higher as traders were pleased to see the improvement in the market's fundamentals. August lean hogs closed $0.22 lower at $107.02, October lean hogs closed $0.47 higher at $89.20 and December lean hogs closed $0.40 higher at $81.20. It was jaw-dropping to see an astonishing 16,000 head trade in today's cash market as obviously packers were short bought headed into this week. Then to only help matters more, pork cutout values closed slightly higher, which helped further the case that the market's fundamentals were indeed supportive today. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.20 with a weighted average price of $113.34 on 16,501 head.

Pork cutouts totaled 309.46 loads with 281.84 loads of pork cuts and 27.63 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.15, $116.00. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 478,000 head -- 5,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 7/28/2025: up $0.11, $110.41.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given the big volume of hogs sold today, it's likely that packers have fulfilled the vast majority of their needs for the week and will only minimally participate in the cash market for the remainder of the week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Traders Actively Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is off to a stronger start this morning as traders are hopeful that the market's strong fundamentals are going to remain evident through the week's latter half. Still no cash cattle trade has developed but asking prices are firm at $235 in the South. September corn is up 1 3/4 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is down $2.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 51.05 points and the NASDAQ is up 90.51 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is continuing to charge onward and higher as traders remain optimistic that the market's fundamental strength is going to remain viable in the months ahead, as supplies remain thin and demand is still utterly incredible. August live cattle are up $1.95 at $231.72 and October live cattle are up $1.90 at $228.32 and December live cattle are up $1.92 at $228.67. Still no developments have surfaced in the week's fed cash cattle market, but asking prices remain firm at $235 plus in the South and remain unestablished in the North. Trade isn't expected to develop until Thursday at the earliest.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.14 ($363.05) and select down $0.49 ($341.99) with a movement of 116 loads (77.88 loads of choice, 15.55 loads of select, 14.58 loads of trim and 8.49 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also electing to trade higher and higher as demand in the feeder cattle complex is utterly phenomenal. It seems as though every week new records are being set for feeder cattle sales in the countryside as buyers soberly know that if they want to get calves purchased this year, it's going to be somewhat of a bidding war. August feeders are up $1.62 at $337.82, September feeders are up $1.32 at $338.40 and October feeders are up $1.22 at $337.12.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is changing its tune for the week as its contracts are now trading higher as well. More than anything, it seems that traders are noting the uptick in morning pork prices, along with the staggering advancement in the cash hog market. August lean hogs are up $0.10 at $107.35, October lean hogs are up $0.70 at $89.42 and December lean hogs are up $0.60 at $81.40. The $5.02 jump in the belly alongside the $4.80 increase in the picnic has helped push the carcass price slightly higher.

The projected lean hog index for 7/29/2025 is up $0.06 at $110.51, and the actual index for 7/28/2025 is up $0.13 at $110.45. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $8.76 with a weighted average price of $114.30, ranging from $104.00 to $117.50 on 9,055 head and a five-day rolling average of $113.03. Pork cutouts totaled 194.14 loads with 175.09 loads of pork cuts and 19.05 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.06, $115.91.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures May Trade Mixed Until Cash Develops

GENERAL COMMENTS:

occurrence. Strength in boxed beef has been limited and confined to only a few days over the past three weeks. However, traders are focused on tight supplies and little indication of heifer retention to rebuild the herd. Futures continue higher as traders who have been trying to pick the top continue to get run over and stopped out of the market. Cash cattle have not yet traded this week, and no trade is expected to develop until Thursday. Feedlots continue to hold the upper hand and are not pressured to move cattle. Feed is inexpensive, and holding cattle over to higher weights has resulted in financial benefit. Traders seem unconcerned over the weakness of boxed beef, with choice declining $0.88 and select falling $4.33 on Tuesday.

Hog futures came under significant pressure, fueled by stops being triggered as futures fell below the recent sideways pattern that had developed. The bottom of the range will now be considered as technical resistance and could result in further follow-through selling today. Traders seem to be disillusioned over the lack of pork demand, even though beef prices continue to increase. The packers remained aggressive on Tuesday, with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showing an increase of $0.79 on a high volume of hogs purchased. However, pork cutouts took it on the chin with value down $2.44.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	A strong uptrend in cattle and consistent new highs keep traders' active buyers, and confident in holding long positions.	1)	The cattle market is overbought and could result in a price correction that could be magnified due to the high prices.
2)	Feedlots will hold cattle over this week if they do not receive higher prices for cattle.	2)	If there were a weakness in the cash market, it would trigger significant selling as fund trades would liquidate some positions.
3)	Fund traders have reduced their long positions in hog futures but continue to remain long in the market in anticipation of better prices.	3)	The packers continue to reduce slaughter to improve margins. This may back up hogs in the country.
4)	The decline in hog futures on Tuesday may be viewed as a buying opportunity. The weakness may have been stops being triggered and not fundamentally induced.	4)	Lower pork cutout prices indicate demand is not as strong as had been hoped. Traders will maintain the discount in the October contract.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - CME Feeder Cattle Index Broke through $330

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a wild day for the cattle complex as traders again ran the contracts to new highs, but the biggest announcement of the day was seeing the CME feeder cattle index break through $330, which continues to attest to the market's incredible demand. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day. September corn is down 4 1/2 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is down $3.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 204.57 points and the NASDAQ is down 80.29 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex had another outstanding, where traders were initially uncomfortable with the idea of trading the complex higher, but quickly changed their tune and ran most of the nearby contracts to new contract highs. August live cattle closed $1.85 higher at $229.72, October live cattle closed $1.67 higher at $226.45 and December live cattle closed $1.40 higher at $226.75. Today's movement really just highlights the bullish nature of the market and continues to showcase just how many traders believe in the fundamental footing of the marketplace. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, and no trade will likely develop until Thursday or Friday. Asking prices are noted at $235 plus in the South. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 113,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.88 ($366.85) and select down $4.33 ($342.52) with a movement of 61 loads (32.65 loads of choice, 9.12 loads of select, 12.10 loads of trim and 7.58 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Even though last week feedlot managers were able to get the market to trade steady to $2.00 higher, feedlot managers sit in an ideal position where they can afford to let their showlists roll over into the next week if prices aren't what they desire.

FEEDER CATTLE:

We are living in a historical time, folks. If this market doesn't excite you, I simply cannot help you. With a lofty $2.00 advancement on top of Monday's gains, the feeder cattle complex again ran to new contract highs as traders are in disbelief of what prices are doing in the countryside. Do note that this afternoon's CME feeder cattle index reached a new all-time high as the index broke above $330. August feeders closed $2.67 higher at $336.20, September feeders closed $2.52 higher at $337.07 and October feeders closed $2.55 higher at $335.90. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, feeder steers under 500 pounds sold $25.00 to $30.00 higher, with the heavier weights traded steady to $8.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 500 pounds sold $20.00 to $25.00 higher, with the heavier weights as well trading steady to $8.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 70%. The CME feeder cattle index 7/28/2025: up $2.27, $332.20.

LEAN HOGS:

With little support from the cash market and significantly lower prices from the meat counter, the lean hog complex stood little chance at closing higher as technical resistance pressure remains limiting. August lean hogs closed $1.27 lower at $107.25, October lean hogs closed $2.15 lower at $88.72 and December lean hogs closed $2.10 lower at $80.80.

Pork cutout values were again disappointing as prices saw significant decreases across a number of cuts, which made it impossible for the carcass price to stand a chance at closing higher. But the biggest declines were seen in the belly, which was down $7.95, the picnic, which closed $4.99 lower, and the loin, which closed $4.11 lower. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.79 with a weighted average price of $112.14 on 9,859 head. Pork cutouts totaled 291.08 loads with 263.60 loads of pork cuts and 27.47 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.44, $115.85. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 460,000 head, 16,000 head less than a week and a year ago. The CME lean hog index 7/25/2025: up $0.20, $110.30.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With pork cutout values sinking, it's unlikely that packers will participate much in the cash market.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Contracts Inch Higher, Hogs Retreat

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Tuesday's noon hour as traders are pleased to continue to support the cattle contracts, but without better fundamental support, the lean hog contracts are trading lower. Asking prices are noted in the South at $235 plus. September corn is down 5 1/2 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is down $1.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 200.38 points and the NASDAQ is down 50.77 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Although traders were cautious at the day's initial start, the live cattle complex is back to trading higher after shaking the morning's initial jitters. August live cattle are up $0.57 at $228.45, October live cattle are up $0.42 at $225.20 and December live cattle are up $0.52 at $225.87. Today's slight uptick, although it still is less than a dollar's advancement, is enough of a push to lead many of the nearby contracts to new contract highs yet again. No business has developed yet in the fed cash cattle market, and it isn't expected to any time soon, as feedlot managers and packers are likely to go round again this week as both parties want starkly different outcomes for the market. Asking prices are noted in the South at $235 plus, but are still not established yet in the North.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.88 ($366.85) and select down $4.33 ($342.52) with a movement of 61 loads (32.65 loads of choice, 9.12 loads of select, 12.10 loads of trim and 7.58 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Per the norm here lately, the feeder cattle complex is again rocking and rolling into the day's noon hour as the sky truly remains the limit for the feeder cattle complex right now. August feeders are up $1.92 at $335.45, September feeders are up $1.50 at $336.05 and October feeders are up $1.55 at $334.90. Like the live cattle complex, today's advance scores new all-time highs in most of the nearby contracts once again. And regarding demand in the countryside, buyers remain so active in the market that Monday's CME feeder cattle index closed at $329.93.

LEAN HOGS:

With cash prices and pork cutouts values lower, it doesn't surprise many that the lean hog complex is trading lower. The weakness in the market's fundamentals, mixed with the continued pressure being seen in the futures complex, has gravely affected the complex today as the contracts are all trading $1.00 to $2.00 lower. August lean hogs are down $1.10 at $107.42, October lean hogs are down $2.22 at $88.65 and December lean hogs are down $2.12 at $80.77. It's highly unlikely that the market's direction will improve ahead of today's close.

The projected lean hog index for 7/28/2025 is up $0.13 at $110.45 and the actual index for 7/25/2025 is up $0.04 at $110.32. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.48 with a weighted average price of $105.54, ranging from $104.00 to $110.00 on 759 head and a five-day rolling average of $113.05. Pork cutouts totaled 154.93 loads with 138.76 loads of pork cuts and 16.17 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.79, $117.50.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures Poised to Move Above the Range

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures continue to reach for the sky with no indication of a price ceiling. The recent reports added further support to the market, with the only aspect left in the market that could impact the uptrend being a slowdown in demand. That had been anticipated much earlier, but has not happened. Boxed beef prices have declined over the recent weeks, but that has been attributed to the impact of lower consumption due to increasing temperatures and not high prices. The packers have been unable to hold onto better margins that had developed recently and are back to where those margins had been. The packers had to increase bids to obtain the cattle needed for slaughter, even though they had purchased cattle ahead and boxed beef prices declined. Boxed beef on Monday was higher, with choice up $1.06 and select up $1.98. Feeder cattle remain in strong demand with prices at auctions continuing to rise.

Hog futures held in the range with little reason for traders to be excited over market direction. Cash was higher, which was unusual as packers usually wait to see weekend demand before becoming aggressive. However, there is a general volume of hogs needed each week, and the sharp decline of cash on Friday made it attractive for packers to step up more aggressively to begin the week. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.08. Pork cutouts declined $0.57. Traders are holding a substantial discount in the October and later contracts, anticipating a seasonal decline. This discount may be reduced if beef prices increase further as more demand may shift to pork.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The uptrend continues in cattle, keeping traders confident, holding and adding to long positions.	1)	Cattle futures are overbought and could see some liquidation if traders become nervous over these high prices.
2)	Recent reports showed little indication that the beef herd is increasing as the percentage of heifers moving to feedlots remain relatively high.	2)	The strength in cattle futures was less than anticipated due to the bullish reports on Friday. Much of it was already factored in. This may limit further gains.
3)	Hog futures have maintained support, keeping futures in a sideways pattern. This may increase buying interest from traders.	3)	Traders may eventually become bored with the inability of hog futures to move to the upside and may liquidate their long positions.
4)	The price spread between August and October is excessive and may narrow with October increasing after the August contract goes off the board.	4)	Cash hog prices have not been able to break out to find consistent strength. The supply of market-ready hogs remains sufficient.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Overall, it was a winning day for the entire livestock complex as all three of the markets closed higher, and boxed beef prices were higher this afternoon as well. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, somewhat higher in Kansas, but lower in Nebraska/Colorado. September corn is down 5 3/4 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is down $2.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 64.36 points and the NASDAQ is up 70.26 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

What a way to start the new week! Following last Friday's incredible bullish day, trades took the bullish news of the Cattle on Feed report amid a stronger fed cash cattle market and ran the live cattle contracts higher throughout the day. August live cattle closed $1.40 higher at $227.87, October live cattle closed $1.62 higher at $224.77 and December live cattle closed $1.87 higher at $225.35. Today's higher surge yet again establishes a new contract high in most of the nearby contracts and again signals just how strong a fundamental footing the market indeed has. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, somewhat higher in Kansas, but lower in Nebraska/Colorado. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 108,000 head, 3,000 head more than a week ago but 6,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $230 to $232, which is steady to $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $380, which $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 62,915 head. Of which 71% (44,769 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery, while the remaining 29% (18,146 head) were committed to the market's deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.05 ($367.73) and select up $1.98 ($346.85) with a movement of 91 loads (58.17 loads of choice, 23.38 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 9.58 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Following last week's trade, I expect that the market will trade at least steady, especially if boxed beef prices continue to trade higher.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was bashful about its ambitions throughout the day and quickly advanced the market right from the day's opening bell, which carried through the afternoon's close as prices ended the day $2.00 to $3.00 stronger. It's again interesting to note that the market is seeing the biggest daily advancement in the furthest deferred months as traders are realizing that supplies aren't going to be overly abundant any time soon and that currently the deferred contracts are the market's best deal. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers and steer calves traded $8.00 to $13.00 higher, with spots of $20.00 higher. Feeder heifers and heifer calves sold $10.00 to $20.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 67%. The CME lean hog index 7/25/2025: up $1.10, $329.93.

LEAN HOGS:

Today was a win for the lean hog complex too, as even though the market didn't see much heavy lifting in terms of added support from the market's fundamentals, the futures complex successfully closed higher. August lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $108.52, October lean hogs closed $0.27 higher at $90.87 and December lean hogs closed $0.65 higher at $82.90. And if it weren't for the $4.09 decline in the butt, the carcass price would have stood a chance at closing higher. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.08 with a weighted average price of $111.35 on 3,264 head. Pork cutouts totaled 246.16 loads with 215.58 loads of pork cuts and 30.58 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.57, $118.29. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 460,000 head, 13,000 head more than a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 7/24/2025: up $0.33, $110.28.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Packers weren't overly aggressive in today's market, so seeing more interest on Tuesday wouldn't be out of the norm.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Keep Trading Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Overall, the livestock complex is off to a mostly stronger start as the cattle complex has been blessed with ample fundamental support, and now traders are just trying to decide how far they should push the contracts. The lean hog complex is again trading mixed as traders are looking to see what demand shapes up to be this week. September corn is down 5 3/4 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is down $2.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 25.67 points and the NASDAQ is up 62.83 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Following the slew of positive developments late last week, the live cattle complex hasn't shied away from trading higher as the market has seen a plethora of fundamental support gush into the marketplace. Whether that be last week's bullish Cattle on Feed report, or the noting on the mid-year Cattle Inventory report that no signs of herd build back have started yet, or the steady to $2.00 higher in the fed cash cattle market, or the unseasonal uptick in boxed beef prices. There are almost too many bullish factors currently playing in the marketplace to keep trade off. August live cattle are up $0.65 at $227.12, October live cattle are up $0.40 at $223.55 and December live cattle are up $0.72 at $224.12. No bids or asking prices have been posted yet.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $230 to $232, which is steady to $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $380, which $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.13 ($367.81) and select up $2.04 ($346.91) with a movement of 30 loads (15.83 loads of choice, 9.20 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 4.72 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

After fully evaluating the market's triumphant success last week, it's almost as if traders noted the positive developments and merely said, "say less," as they shot the feeder cattle contracts higher. August feeders are up $0.67 at $332.05, September feeders are up $0.90 at $333.10 and October feeders are up $1.12 at $332.12. Once again today, the market's higher push in the futures complex scored another new contract high for many of the nearby contracts.

LEAN HOGS:

Following last week's choppy trade, the lean hog complex is again skating sideways into Monday's noon hour. August lean hogs are steady at $108.70, October lean hogs are up $0.02 at $90.62 and December lean hogs are up $0.47 at $82.72. It will be imperative that demand remains strong this week if trades are going to be successfully able to advance the contracts. Packers could be slightly less aggressive in this week's cash market as they bought a sizeable volume last week.

The projected lean hog index for 7/25/2025 is up $0.04 at $110.32 and the actual index for 7/24/2025 is up $0.33 at $110.28. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.24 with a weighted average price of $109.02, ranging from $106.00 to $114.00 on 951 head and a five-day rolling average of $113.61. Pork cutouts total 133.39 loads with 119.52 loads of pork cuts and 13.88 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.20, $121.06.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Expected to Gap Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders in cattle futures seemed to have little concern over the two major reports to be released after the close, and rightly so. The Cattle on Feed report was bullish primarily for placements that were 8% below a year ago and 4% below the low end of the trade estimates. There is little indication that the beef herd is rebuilding, given limited heifer retention and the absence of cattle imports from Mexico. This should result in a bullish market today with futures likely gapping higher on the open. The unknown is what traders will do because cattle futures are already at record highs. It could be a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact type of trading action. The bi-annual cattle inventory report was also supportive to the market. Boxed beef price closed lower on Friday, with choice down $1.41 and select down $2.13. Cash cattle traded $1.00 higher on Friday, further impacting packer margin with the strong gains of a few weeks ago having now been eliminated. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders selling 277 live cattle contracts, reducing their net-long position to 126,295. Fund traders added 148 long feeder cattle positions, increasing their net-long positions to 36,414 and another record long.

Hog futures continue to consolidate. The weakness of the cash market suggests that futures could break to the downside. However, pork cutouts would suggest the market is building support. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report on Friday showed cash down $3.34. Pork cutout values increased $1.32 to $118.86. Hog futures may find support today on spillover strength from cattle if cattle trade is substantially higher. The fund traders were net sellers of 6,829 contracts on the Commitment of Traders report, reducing their long position to 107,179.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report showed cattle placements in feedlots were 8% below a year ago and 4% below the trade expectations.	1)	Cattle futures are already at record highs, with the bullish reports potentially a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact opportunity.
2)	Beef heifers on July 1 were down 3% from July 1, 2023, clearly indicating the beef herd is not rebuilding, keeping supplies tight.	2)	The recent strong gains in beef packer margins have been eliminated and may cause the packers to reduce slaughter and be less aggressive in the cash market.
3)	Hog futures have been consolidating and possibly building support. This could provide traders with confidence to buy into the market.	3)	Cash hogs continue to struggle, which could pressure hog futures, resulting in futures breaking below the sideways trading range.
4)	Pork cutout values are holding, indicating demand is strong and may potentially increase if beef prices continue to increase.	4)	Traders have little to get excited over in the hog market. This may result in limited upside potential.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Northern Dressed Cattle Traded $1.00 Higher; Southern Feedlot Managers Still Battling with Packers

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a rallying day for the cattle complex as Northern dressed cattle traded $1.00 higher, both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts closed higher, and both the Cattle Inventory and Cattle on Feed reports were bullish. At the time of this writing, still no Southern live cattle had traded as packers, and feedlot managers were still going toe to toe. September corn is down 2 1/4 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is down $1.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 208.01 points and the NASDAQ is up 50.36 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a strong day for the live cattle complex as even though traders didn't run the contracts sharply higher before closing, they still closed higher none the less and the market's real heavy lifting was done in its fundamentals. For starters, traders were pleased to see that Northern dressed cattle were trading for $380, which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and at the time of this writing, packers and feedlot managers in the South were still going toe to toe, and no Southern cattle had traded yet. But it was supportive to see that both the Cattle on Feed report and the Cattle Inventory Report came out bullish, which should help feedlot managers again next week, as that's just one more bullish feather for them to tuck into their hats. August live cattle closed $0.67 higher at $226.47, October live cattle closed $1.00 higher at $223.15 and December live cattle closed $0.82 higher at $223.47. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 96,000 head, 5,000 head less than a week ago and 10,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 5,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated to be around 549,000 head, 14,000 head less than a week ago and 56,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.41 ($366.68) and select down $2.13 ($344.87) with a movement of 105 loads (66.69 loads of choice, 20.85 loads of select, 10.76 loads of trim and 6.71 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. It's tough to call next week's market when we don't even know where this week's market is going to trade yet, but given that supplies are thin, feedlot managers and packers are going to continue to go rounds.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was an invigorating day for the feeder cattle complex as trader ran the contracts to the market's resistance threshold before closing, seeming fully willing and able to continue to support the market is Friday's report were indeed bullish. And thankfully, bullish was the entire tone of the Cattle on Feed report and the Cattle inventory report. DTN's comments on both reports are available here:

August feeders closed $2.47 higher at $331.37, September feeders closed $2.55 higher at $332.20 and October feeders closed $2.65 higher at $331.00. It's tough telling how traders will react to Friday's bullish reports because the reports justify trading the contracts even higher, but when the market is already trading at all-time highs, it's difficult to pinpoint how much more air is available to the market. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the state, feeder steers and heifers traded $3.00 to $8.00 higher. Steer calves traded steady, except those under 400 pounds, which traded $10.00 to $15.00 higher. Heifer calves sold unevenly steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 65%. The CME feeder cattle index 7/24/2025: up $2.65, $328.83.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex stalled out ahead of Friday's close as traders ran into resistance pressure and weren't able to advance the market any further ahead of the day's close. Pork demand remained strong through the week's end, and that could potentially lend traders some additional support early next week. August lean hogs closed $0.50 higher at $108.70, October lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $90.60 and December lean hogs closed $0.67 lower at $82.25. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $3.34 with a weighted average price of $110.27 on 1,809 head. Pork cutouts totaled 347.23 loads with 309.29 loads of pork cuts and 37.94 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.32, $118.86. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 447,000 head, 16,000 head less than a week ago and 12,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 30,000 head. The CME lean hog index 7/23/2025: up $0.72, $109.95.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers rarely support the cash market on Mondays.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Remain Hopeful Cash Cattle Will Trade Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex is continuing to trade higher into midday Friday as the market is anxious to see what feedlot managers accomplish in this week's fed cash cattle trade and to see what the Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory Report yield later this afternoon. No cash cattle trade has developed yet today but bids are currently on the table in both regions. September corn is down 3 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is down $1.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 77.91 points and the NASDAQ is up 76.67 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading slightly higher into Friday's noon hour as traders remain optimistic about what this week's fed cash cattle market is going to do. August live cattle are up $0.42 at $226.22, October live cattle are up $0.82 at $222.97 and December live cattle are up $0.57 at $223.22. Also lending positive support to the live cattle complex is the fact that the afternoon's Cattle on Feed report is expected to showcase fewer placements and lighter on-feed totals, and don't forget that the semi annual Cattle Inventory report is also going to be released later this afternoon as well. A few bids are currently on the table at $230 in Kansas, $238 live in the North and $376 dressed. Packer demand should improve as the day trades on, and packers are undoubtedly going to need to get more aggressive before the week's end, as they can't afford to go short-bought into next week's trade.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.63 ($367.46) and select down $1.39 ($345.61) with a movement of 70 loads (44.93 loads of choice, 13.36 loads of select, 8.65 loads of trim and 3.56 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also using the day to trade higher as its contracts are conformably trading well over $1.00 stronger in most of the nearby months. With the continued support of red-hot feeder cattle demand in the countryside, traders have all the support they could ever wish for. August feeders are up $1.37 at $330.27, September feeders are up $1.45 at $331.10 and October feeders are up $1.50 at $329.85.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is again trading lower as the market seems skeptical to advance much higher as traders are facing some resistance pressure. Pork demand and cash prices have been supportive this past week, but with traders unwilling to challenge the futures complex's resistance, lower is the only direction for the market to trade. August lean hogs are down $0.20 at $108.00, October lean hogs are down $1.07 at $90.02 and December lean hogs are down $0.82 at $82.10.

The projected lean hog index for 7/24/2025 is up $0.33 at $110.28, and the actual index for 7/23/2025 is up $0.72 at $109.95. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $4.55 with a weighted average price of $109.26, ranging from $98.00 to $115.00 on 1,329 head and a five-day rolling average of $113.53. Pork cutouts total 211.51 loads with 195.77 loads of pork cuts and 15.73 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.97, $120.51.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Double-Report Day

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures closed lower Thursday as anticipated with traders positioning ahead of the reports. Both the Cattle on Feed report and the bi-annual Cattle Inventory report will hold significant importance. Analysts estimate cattle on-feed numbers at 99.1% of a year ago, with a range of 99.0% to 100.0%. Placements are estimated to average 98.1% with a range of 96.8% to 101.0%. Marketings are estimated at 96.1% with a range of 95.9% to 96.9%. The bi-annual Cattle Inventory report will show inventory as of July 1. Due to the report having been discontinued last year, the numbers will be compared to two years ago. The estimates are for all cattle and calves at 98.1%. Beef replacement heifers are estimated at 97.0% with a range of 95.4% to 100.0%. Dairy replacement heifers at 100.6% with a range of 98.5% to 102.9%. The annual calf crop is estimated at 97.8%. A light volume of cattle traded on Thursday at $1.00 higher, likely setting the stage for the week. Boxed beef prices closed higher with choice up $0.57 and select up $1.61.

Hog futures continue to consolidate. The fundamentals support the market, but traders are uncertain whether that support will continue. Pork cutout values are more consistent than the cash market. Cutouts increased $0.30 to $117.54. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed packers pulling back further, with cash down $1.36. Although packers have purchased quite a few hogs this week, they may bid higher to fill their needs for the week. Packers continue to hold back on slaughter in an attempt to improve margins.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report may not have much influence on the market if it is a negative report. We have seen negative reports over the past year, but cattle futures continued to increase after a brief pause. This report may be no different.	1)	Either of the two cattle reports Friday could show negative numbers, which could cause some liquidation next week.
2)	The bi-annual Cattle Inventory report is not expected to show increased heifer retention, indicating the beef herd has not been rebuilding.	2)	Further selling may take place in cattle futures Friday as traders position ahead of the report.
3)	Hog futures continue to consolidate and may be building solid support. Traders seem confident holding long positions.	3)	If hog futures are unable to maintain support after consolidating, another period of liquidation could unfold.
4)	Overall, pork cutouts are holding well, indicating demand is good. Pork demand is anticipated to remain strong for the third quarter.	4)	Packers have been reducing slaughter due to tight margins. This will keep sufficient hogs available to the market

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Remain Cautious

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex had a mixed day as traders were cautious to overly support the cattle complex following the gains seen previously this week and given that the fed cash cattle market hasn't seen much trade yet. Friday will be a big day for the cattle as both the Cattle on Feed and Bi-Annual Cattle Inventory reports will be shared. September corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is down $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 316.38 points and the NASDAQ is up 37.94 points.

Thursday's export report shared that Beef net sales of 16,700 mt for 2025 were up 90% from the previous week and 46% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (9,000 mt), Japan (2,400 mt) and Taiwan (1,500 mt). Pork net sales of 17,000 mt for 2025 were down 1% from the previous week and 43% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (7,200 mt), Colombia (3,100 mt) and Japan (2,200 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex rounded out the day lower as traders merely sat on their hands, waiting for time to pass by and hoping that they'd see some support from the market's fed cash cattle trade. August live cattle closed $1.22 lower at $225.80, October live cattle closed $1.35 lower at $222.15 and December live cattle closed $1.25 lower at $222.65. Bids were offered in both regions throughout the day, but as feedlot managers waited for packers to up their bids, time slipped by, and very few cattle traded throughout the day. There was just a handful of cattle traded in the South at $231, which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 117,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.57 ($368.09) and select down $1.61 ($347.00) with a movement of 129 loads (84.09 loads of choice, 25.74 loads of select, 10.95 loads of trim and 7.97 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Given that feedlot managers have waited this long to trade their pens, it's likely that they won't sell cattle for cheaper money as they sit current enough with their showlists to simply be able to roll them over if prices are what they desire.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex also closed lower as traders were sheepish to push the market any higher following the big gains seen earlier in the week. But today's move wasn't a choice made because of poor demand in the countryside, but rather because of skepticism from the futures complex as traders worry about over-extending the market. August feeders closed $2.62 lower at $328.90, September feeders closed $2.25 lower at $329.65 and October feeders closed $2.30 lower at $328.35. At Mitchell Livestock Auction in Mitchell, South Dakota, compared to their last sale two weeks ago, feeder steers traded $5.00 to $10.00 higher, with instances of $18.00 higher on the 950-pound steers. The best test on heifers was on those weighing 950 pounds to 1,000 pounds, which traded $10.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 99%. The CME feeder cattle index 7/23/2025: down $1.26, $326.18.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex chopped merely sideways throughout the day as traders want to advance the contracts but didn't quite see enough fundamental support to justify doing so. August lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $108.20, October lean hogs closed $0.20 higher at $91.10 and December lean hogs closed $0.35 higher at $82.92. It was impressive that pork cutout values closed higher at all, with the rib alone being down over $6.00.

Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.36 with a weighted average price of $113.61 on 4,482 head. Pork cutouts totaled 297.54 loads with 266.83 loads of pork cuts and 30.71 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.30, $117.54. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 475,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 7/22/2025: up $0.64, $109.23.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers have likely fulfilled the vast majority of their needs for the week.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Traders Pull the Reins Back on the Cattle Market's Rally

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is back to trading mixed, with the cattle contracts trading slightly lower as traders wait to see what develops in this week's fed cash cattle market, and the lean hog complex is now trading higher. No cash cattle have traded at this point, but bids are on the table in both regions. September corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and August soybean meal is down $2.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 247.79 points and the NASDAQ is up 29.60 points.

Thursday's export report shared that Beef net sales of 16,700 mt for 2025 were up 90% from the previous week and 46% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (9,000 mt), Japan (2,400 mt) and Taiwan (1,500 mt). Pork net sales of 17,000 mt for 2025 were down 1% from the previous week and 43% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (7,200 mt), Colombia (3,100 mt) and Japan (2,200 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

Following the major advancement in which the market has pushed earlier this week, traders are now (once again) seeming to sit on their hands waiting for developments to surface in the fed cash cattle market. More than anything, traders are hopeful that the market will indeed trade higher to justify their technical advancement, but the cash market has yet to trade any cattle. Bids of $230 live are currently being offered in Kansas, and bids of $235 live and $376 dressed are currently being offered in Nebraska, but feedlot managers aren't jumping at those offers. Asking prices are firm in the South at $232, so packers are going to need to improve their bids. It is interesting to note that midday boxed beef prices are higher again, which continues to show the strength of consumer demand and how really that's been one of the market's strongest pillars to lean on during this cycle. August live cattle are down $1.00 at $226.02, October live cattle are down $0.95 at $222.57 and December live cattle are down $0.90 at $223.00.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.57 ($369.09) and select up $4.23 ($349.62) with a movement of 73 loads (46.63 loads of choice, 13.79 loads of select, 8.24 loads of trim and 4.74 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

After Wednesday's monstrous gain, even the feeder cattle complex is trading lower as traders seem to be waving their white flag, saying, "That's enough for now, ladies and gentlemen." August feeders are down $2.27 at $329.25, September feeders are down $1.72 at $330.17 and October feeders are down $1.65 at $329.00. Demand continues to be red-hot, like never before in the countryside, so today's weaker note throughout the futures complex is solely a technical decision, and not one that reflects the morale throughout the countryside.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading higher as traders have seemed to catch another wind and are pleased to see pork cutout values higher at today's midday report. I think it's worth noting that of the major cuts, not one of them is trading lower, which shows strong overall demand. August lean hogs are up $0.15 at $108.62, October lean hogs are up $0.87 at $91.77 and December lean hogs are up $0.77 at $83.35.

The projected lean hog index for 7/23/2025 is up $0.72 at $109.95, and the actual index 7/22/2025 is up $0.64 at $109.23. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.96 with a weighted average price of $113.81, ranging from $103.00 to $115.00 on 3,912 head and a five-day rolling average of $113.33. Pork cutouts total 151.56 loads with 130.77 loads of pork cuts and 20.79 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.47, $117.71.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Traders May Pause Their Exuberance

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex has incredible support with traders continuing to add to their long positions without reservation. Traders who have been trying to pick a top in the maket continue to get run over and forced out of the market. Stops continue to be triggered, adding to the upward momentum in the market. Cash has not yet traded this week and is not expected to trade until Friday. Boxed beef prices showed further weakness Wednesday, with choice down $4.98 and select down $2.55. The upcoming Cattle on Feed report and the Cattle Inventory report will be released Friday after the close. Traders may begin to position themselves ahead of the report, resulting in mixed trading activity. Analysts estimate on-feed numbers at 99.1% of a year ago; placements are estimated to average 98.1%; and marketings at 96.1%. The biannual Cattle Inventory report will show inventory as of July 1, 2025. Due to the report having been discontinued last year, the numbers will be compared to 2 years ago. The estimates are for all cattle and calves at 98.1% of 2 years ago. Beef replacement heifers at 97.0%. Dairy replacement heifers at 100.6%. The annual calf crop is estimated at 97.8%.

Hog futures showed little volatility, with contracts closing mixed. There has not been much fundamental news to move the market. Demand seems to be holding with slaughter steady. Packers stepped up on Wednesday to purchase hogs and paid more money to obtain them. They were able to purchase quite a few hogs on Tuesday, but needed more to fill the needs for the week. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.02 with 11,227 head purchased. Pork cutout values declined $0.91. Hog futures are consolidating, with traders uncertain whether increased demand will surface due to high beef prices or if the supply of pork will be sufficient to fill demand without having to raise prices.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	There is no ceiling to beef prices as demand remains strong and supply is tight. New contract highs continue to be established.	1)	Boxed beef prices continue to decline and will have an impact on cattle prices. Consumer demand has slowed seasonally, but high beef prices may continue to impact demand.
2)	Feedlots intend to hold for higher cash this week as futures have continued to increase. They may hold cattle over if they do not receive what they want.	2)	Cattle futures are overbought, and profit-taking could take place as traders position themselves ahead of the reports.
3)	Hog futures are consolidating and possibly building support. Traders may feel confident prices will hold and buy into the market.	3)	The weekly hog weight increased 0.2 pounds last week. This is not much change but unusual considering the increased temperatures that have been experienced.
4)	The weekly hog weights are 0.7 pounds lower than a year ago, averaging 282.9 pounds.	4)	Packers have not had to be aggressive to procure the hogs they need. There is no lack of market-ready hogs.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Push Cattle Contracts Sharply Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was an exhilarating day for the cattle complex as both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets ran to new highs. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. September corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and August soybean meal is down $1.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 507.85 points and the NASDAQ is up 127.34 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was an astonishing day for the live cattle complex as the market scored yet again new contract highs thanks to the faithful support of traders. August live cattle closed $2.05 higher at $227.02, October live cattle closed $2.37 higher at $223.50 and December live cattle closed $2.25 higher at $223.90. It was extremely supportive to see the contracts close that much higher, as it's yet to be seen what the fed cash cattle market is going to do later this week, and especially given the fact that it's a Cattle on Feed report week, which typically means that traders are going to act more cautiously than anything. But even so, traders elected to advance the contracts as they believe in the market's fundamental footing. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and it's not likely that trade will develop until Thursday, or even more likely, on Friday. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $4.98 ($367.52) and select down $2.55 ($345.39) with a movement of 164 loads (113.64 loads of choice, 27.99 loads of select, 4.89 loads of trim and 17.31 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. At this point, I think it's likely that, worst-case scenario, the market trades steady as feedlot managers are keen on the market's bullish nature right now and want to continue to see cash prices move higher.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Sure, the live cattle contracts closed higher, but nothing came close to matching the electrifying energy that engulfed the feeder cattle complex today. It was exhilarating to watch the contracts trade $2.00 to $3.00 higher ahead of the day's noon hour, but by closing time, prices had advanced as much as $4.00 higher in the furthest deferred months. August feeders closed $3.25 higher at $331.52, September feeders closed $3.32 higher at $331.90 and October feeders closed $3.77 higher at $330.65. And more than anything, today's bullish surge was just another technical acknowledgement of the strong fundamental position of the cattle market and traders recognizing the fact that supplies are going to remain inherently thin for the foreseeable future. At Bassett Livestock Auction in Bassett, Nebraska, compared to last week, the best tested group was on those weighing 1,000 to 1,050 pounds, which traded $13 to $23 higher. It was noted on the sale report that several rain showers in the area over the past few weeks have helped, and that sandhill pastures are improving. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 95%. The CME feeder cattle index 7/22/2025: up $0.61, $327.44.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed mostly lower, although a few of the nearby contracts were able to maintain slightly higher positions through the day's close, likely because of the continued support in the cash market. August lean hogs closed $0.72 lower at $108.47, October lean hogs closed $0.40 higher at $90.90 and December lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $82.57. Packers were undeniably short bought headed into this week, which is why the cash prices have jumped up so aggressively. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.02 with a weighted average price of $114.97 on 11,227 head. Pork cutouts total 284.52 loads with 255.15 loads of pork cuts and 29.37 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.91, $117.24. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 473,000 head, 7,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 7/21/2025: up $0.39, $108.59.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. It's tough pinpointing exactly when packers are going to have enough supply built up, but it's likely nearing that point.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Push the Cattle Contracts to New Highs

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Throughout Wednesday's trade, the cattle contracts have traded boldly as new contract highs are seeming to be the norm for the day. No cash cattle trade has developed yet, but asking prices are now noted in the South at $322. September corn is down 1 cent per bushel and August soybean meal is up $0.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 356.01 points and NASDAQ is up 32.95 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's another rip-roaring, rallying day for the live cattle complex as the contracts are etching into new territory yet again today. August live cattle are up $1.37 at $226.35, October live cattle are up $1.62 at $222.75 and December live cattle are up $1.55 at $223.20. It could potentially be that traders are excited to hear about the trade deal that President Trump worked out with Japan, as it will obviously open up more opportunities for more beef to be marketed. Still today, no cash cattle trade has developed, but asking prices are now noted in the South at $232 but remain unestablished still in the North.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $3.07 ($369.43) and select up $0.11 ($348.05) with a movement of 98 loads (74.10 loads of choice, 13.30 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 10.83 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Up, up and away runs the feeder cattle complex as the market is seeing its contracts trade anywhere from $1.00 to $3.00 higher into Wednesday's noon hour. Again, today it's interesting to note that the biggest day over day advancement is currently being seen on the deferred contracts, which are the months trading up to $3.60 higher. More than anything, it seems as though traders are not only recognizing the fact that supplies are going to remain tight, but that they're also adjusting their position from a technical standpoint because of it. August feeders are up $1.87 at $330.17, September feeders are up $1.77 at $330.35 and October feeders are up $2.20 at $329.07.

LEAN HOGS:

The cattle contracts may be rallying but the lean hog complex is again trading lower as traders remain stalemate in their hopes to advance the complex. This morning, pork demand is higher so traders can't point to disappointing market fundamentals. It seems as though traders are running into some resistance pressure, which is hindering the contracts from trading any higher. August lean hogs are down $0.30 at $107.45, October lean hogs are down $0.62 at $89.87 and December lean hogs are down $0.92 at $81.92.

The projected lean hog index for 7/22/2025 is up $0.64 at $109.23, and the actual index for 7/21/2025 is up $0.39 at $108.59. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.78 with a weighted average price of $114.77, ranging from $104.50 to $118.50 on 6,746 head and a five-day rolling average of $112.94. Pork cutouts total 159.15 loads with 145.21 loads of pork cuts and 13.93 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.01, $118.16.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders to Turn Attention to Upcoming Reports

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Most cattle futures contracts closed at new contract highs Tuesday. Live cattle contracts through the rest of this year closed under pressure, but not enough to cause concern for Wednesday's trading. The primary focus for traders will be the Cattle on Feed report and the semi-annual Cattle Inventory Report, both to be released Friday. Analysts estimate on-feed numbers at 99.1% of a year ago; placements are estimated to average 98.1%; and marketings at 96.1%. Cattle marketed are expected to be fewer due to tighter numbers, resulting in lower slaughter. Traders may begin to even up some of their positions Wednesday rather than wait until they are closer to the reports. Cash cattle are not expected to trade until late in the week. Boxed beef prices on Tuesday were mixed with choice up $0.43 and select down $2.11. Boxed beef continues to struggle, but traders view it as temporary.

Hog futures are trying to maintain the uptrend but are having difficulty generating strong buying interest. Cutout prices have been trending higher, but it has not been sufficient to trigger greater buying interest from traders. Pork cutout values declined Tuesday, with values down $1.37. The National Daily Direct Afternoon report showed cash falling $3.48. It was expected to hold the gains of Monday and to add to those gains to recover the losses of Friday. Packers are trying to improve margins and are not willing or do not see the need to be aggressive buyers in the cash market. Light spread trading took place on Tuesday.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	New highs in most cattle contracts keep the uptrend intact and traders confident being long the market.	1)	Packers have a supply of cattle already on the books and may not need to be aggressive in the cash market this week.
2)	Lower on-feed and placements are expected in the Cattle on Feed report. This may continue to support the market.	2)	Boxed beef prices continue to struggle. This will eventually impact cattle futures as demand may be slowing.
3)	Most hog contracts closed higher Tuesday, maintaining the uptrend. The recent strength in cutouts indicates improving demand. The decline Tuesday is expected to be short-lived.	3)	The decline in cash Tuesday with a large amount of hogs traded, does not indicate supplies are tightening. Packers purchased hogs at lower prices without difficulty.
4)	There is an indication of tighter hog supplies. This could provide increasing support over time.	4)	Pork demand needs to remain consistent or the upside price potential will be limited.