GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex had a mixed day as traders weren't overly supportive of the cattle contracts, but the lean hog contracts were able to close higher. Some light cash cattle trade developed at steady to $1.00 higher. September corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel, and August soybean meal is up $0.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 229.71 points and the NASDAQ is up 153.78 points.
Thursday's export report indicated that beef net sales of 8,800 metric tons for 2025 were down 24% from the previous week and 28% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (2,500 mt), Mexico (1,900 mt) and Hong Kong (1,400 mt). Pork net sales of 17,100 mt for 2025 were down 30% from the previous week and 48% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (7,700 mt), Japan (2,500 mt) and Colombia (1,500 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex rounded out the day fully lower, as traders seemed unwilling to advance the market any higher, given the sheer threshold at which the contracts are currently trading, and without having enough fundamental support to reassure their move. August live cattle closed $0.22 lower at $223.67, October live cattle closed $0.42 lower at $220.32 and December live cattle closed $0.52 lower at $220.50. Some light cash cattle trade has been reported in the North at $380, by a regional packer, which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average, but the kicker of that transaction is that those cattle are committed for delivery for the week of August 4th. And then a light volume of cattle has sold in the South for $230, which is steady to $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average as well. While both regions have now traded some cattle, it still doesn't seem as though the market is confident in where prices are trading and that there may still be room for more upside to take place as other feedlots continue to hold out for more money.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head, steady with a week and year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.43 ($373.28) and select down $4.07 ($353.84) with a movement of 139 loads (73.35 loads of choice, 38.39 loads of select, 13.63 loads of trim and 13.47 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to $2.00 higher. I know that last week's weighted averages were sharply higher, but given that feedlot managers are dumping their cattle at packers' current bids, it leads me to believe that they may be holding out waiting for more money before they'll trade their showlists.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex maintained its mixed position through Thursday's close as the nearby contracts rounded out the day weaker, but the deferred months were able to close moderately higher. August feeders closed $0.57 lower at $325.00, September feeders closed $0.42 lower at $325.42 and October feeders closed $0.30 lower at $323.67. More than anything, the market seemed to step back, unwilling to advance its position any higher without some support from the live cattle contracts, and traders are also seeming somewhat fatigued after advancing the market substantially earlier this week. At Clovis Livestock Auction in Clovis, New Mexico, compared to their last sale two weeks ago, steer calves weighing 300 to 350 pounds and 400 to 450 pounds sold $14.00 to $22.00 higher, but the steer calves weighing 450 to 600 pounds traded $6.00 to $14.00 lower. Feeder steers weighing 600 to 700 pounds sold steady to $2.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold steady to $5.00 higher and slaughter bulls traded $5.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 32%. The CME feeder cattle index 7/16/2025: up $0.26, $322.17.
LEAN HOGS:
The mix of fundamental support through slightly stronger pork cutout values and the help of technical support amid a bottoming in the futures complex was all kindling to the market's ability to round out the day higher. August lean hogs closed $1.40 higher at $105.82, October lean hogs closed $1.90 higher at $90.60 and December lean hogs closed $1.87 higher at $82.32. The belly's $4.92 jump was the biggest reason why the carcass price was able to round out the day stronger, but the ham also had a sizeable day-over-day increase as it closed $1.58 higher. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.02 with a weighted average price of $110.70 on 1,850 head. Pork cutouts totaled 253.83 loads, with 227.53 loads of pork cuts and 26.30 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.72, $114.74. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 473,000 head, steady with a week and year ago. The CME lean hog index 7/15/2025: up $0.01, $107.20.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, the bulk of this week's trade is likely done in the cash hog market.
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