GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex rounded out the week, mixed with the cattle complex able to close slightly higher, but the hog complex was still concerned about demand. No new cash cattle trade had developed at the time of this writing, although bids were offered throughout the day. July corn is up 2 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $1.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 344.11 points and the NASDAQ is up 207.97 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 11,400 mt for 2025 were down 19% from the previous week and 9% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (3,400 mt), Japan (2,800 mt) and Taiwan (1,800 mt). Pork net sales of 27,100 mt for 2025 were down 47% from the previous week and 14% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (15,200 mt), Japan (4,300 mt) and Colombia (1,400 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
Although it was a quiet day throughout the marketplace, the live cattle complex rounded out the week on a higher note. August live cattle closed $1.60 higher at $214.05, October live cattle closed $1.20 higher at $210.90 and December live cattle closed $1.12 higher at $211.25. It was relieving for cattlemen to see traders allow the spot August contract to remain above the market's 40-day moving average, as that continues to be a positive technical sign. Bids of $232 live and $368 dressed were offered throughout the day in Nebraska, and bids of $222 live were offered in Texas, but at the time of this writing, no new trade had developed. Unless traders feel extremely comfortable with the amount of cattle they have committed to them through deferred delivery options, they need to buy more cattle this week, or this week's volume is going to be extremely thin. So far this week Northern dressed cattle have traded at $368 to $370, which is steady to $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average and Southern live cattle have traded at mostly $222 to $224, which is also steady to $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head, 10,000 head more than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $5.11 ($389.75) and select down $1.87 ($378.44) with a movement of 103 loads (78.69 loads of choice, 15.35 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 8.73 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Packers currently possess the upper hand in this market as they have supplies built up around them, but unless more trade happens later this evening or on July 4, this week's volume is eerily thin.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex was also able to round out the week higher as traders were thankful to see the added support of the live cattle contracts trading higher. August feeders closed $0.47 higher at $309.50, September feeders closed $0.50 higher at $309.37 and October feeders closed $0.72 higher at $307.15. Next week, Superior Livestock Auction will be hosting their Week in the Rockies online video, and it will be interesting to see if prices are as strong as they were on the Corn Belt Classic. The CME feeder cattle index 7/2/2025: down $2.27, $311.83.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex rounded out the day mixed, with the market more than anything unsure about pork demand, which is likely why traders let the contracts drift lower into the long weekend. July lean hogs closed $1.67 lower at $107.97, August lean hogs closed $1.80 lower at $106.10 and October lean hogs closed $0.90 lower at $92.10. This afternoon, there wasn't one major cut that closed sharply lower, but with mixed price signals across the major cuts, a lower trend was inevitable for the afternoon's carcass price. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.85 with a weighted average price of $110.21 on 2,764 head. Pork cutouts totaled 371.32 loads, with 346.92 loads of pork cuts and 24.40 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.54, $110.21. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 407,000 head, 66,000 head less than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago. The CME lean hog index 7/1/2025: down $0.77, $110.22.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Following the long weekend, packers will likely want to see what demand is going to amount to before they buy too aggressively in the cash market.
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