Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Update - US Border to Again Allow Cattle Imports Shakes the Cattle Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mostly lower into Tuesday's noon hour as the cattle contracts are reacting negatively to the USDA's announcement that Mexican cattle imports are going to resume, and the lean hog complex is trading lower from a lack of fundamental support. Asking prices are noted in the South at $225 plus. July corn is down 2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 440.45 points and the NASDAQ is down 168.78 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Although the live cattle contracts aren't reacting as drastically as the feeder cattle contracts are to the USDA's announcement that some Mexican cattle imports will resume as early as July 5. The market is still trading lower thanks to the bearish news. August live cattle are down $3.35 at $210.52, October live cattle are down $2.90 at $207.27 and December live cattle are down $2.77 at $207.87. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. Asking prices are noted in the South at $225-plus, but are still not established in the North. Trade will likely be delayed for at least another day.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.25 ($395.81) and select up $0.92 ($385.02) with a movement of 66 loads (43.78 loads of choice, 9.81 loads of select, 5.81 loads of trim and 6.69 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

And just like that, the oxygen that seemed so bountiful in the feeder cattle complex has dried up as traders are negatively reacting to the announcement that the US will begin to allow Mexican cattle Imports starting as soon as July 5. 

Nevertheless, the biggest concern that cattle producers have is how many cattle are now going to be allowed to cross the border? And how is that going to affect domestic prices? Unfortunately, time will have to answer those questions, but today's negative downturn is a psychological reaction to the announcement. The fact remains that even with Mexican feeder cattle imports, the US still will be short of feeder cattle, but the concern is that if imports flood the market, some of the upper echelon of the market could quickly disappear. August feeders are down $6.17 at $304.45, September feeders are down $5.70 at $304.92 and October feeders are down $5.65 at $302.87.

LEAN HOGS:

With cash prices lower and pork cutout values sharply lower, it comes as no real surprise that the lean hog complex is also trading lower into Tuesday's noon hour. July lean hogs are down $1.22 at $108.87, August lean hogs are down $0.60 at $106.90 and October lean hogs are up $0.07 at $92.47. Oddly enough today the biggest reason why the carcass price is lower is because the belly is down $9.10 and the butt is down $6.69.

The projected lean hog index for 6/30/2025 is down $0.77 at $110.99 and the actual index for 6/27/2025 is down $0.26 at $111.76. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.23 with a weighted average price of $109.28, ranging from $108.00 to $112.00 on 1,285 head and with a five-day rolling average of $109.53. Pork cutout values total 219.76 loads with 190.93 loads of pork cuts and 28.82 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.28, $113.09.