GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a mixed day for the cattle complex as the feeder cattle contracts ran higher upon the border being closed again, the live cattle complex closed mixed with traders still unsure of what this week's fed cash cattle market is going to do, and the lean hog complex closed lower mainly because of weaker exports and a lack of trader support. July corn is down 5 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $2.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 192.34 points and the NASDAQ is up 19.32 points.
The biggest news affecting the cattle complex today is that the border is again closed to Mexican imports as a bullish note. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but bids are on the table in the South. Thursday's export report shared that net sales of 11,600 mt for 2025 were up 1% from the previous week but down 12% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (4,000 mt), South Korea (3,800 mt) and Mexico (1,100 mt). Pork net sales of 24,300 mt for 2025 were down 11% from the previous week and 17% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were China (8,800 mt), Mexico (7,300 mt) and Japan (4,200 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex rounded out the day mixed as the market remains on edge about what's next. On one hand, it's a bullish announcement for the domestic cattle market that Mexican cattle imports are again banned, but traders quickly pulled back from their bullish roar this morning as they also have to consider that the complex is reaching levels of being overbought from technical sense and that boxed beef prices are seasonally correcting. August live cattle closed $0.55 lower at $219.22, October live cattle closed $0.27 lower at $217.07 and December live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $217.25. It will be interesting to see what shakes out in this week's fed cash cattle market as feedlot managers are pushing on packers and would personally love to see the market trade at least steady, but with no substantial sales being marked yet, it's still anyone's guess on how this week's trend is going to land. Bids of $223 to $227 were offered throughout the day in the South, but feedlot managers passed on the bids as their asking prices are firm at $228 to $230. Asking prices are still not fully established in the North.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head, 3,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $6.59 ($386.45) and select down $5.19 ($373.27) with a movement of 143 loads (108.03 loads of choice, 23.51 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 11.39 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that feedlot managers have been this persistent in holding out and hoping that prices can trade at least steady, I think there's a good chance that they accomplish their mission this week, as packers need a secure enough supply from being too short in the weeks ahead.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex was able to maintain its higher position through the day's end, even though the live cattle complex closed mixed as demand is frankly incredible right now for feeder cattle and calves. So, upon seeing continued support in the countryside, it shouldn't come as a surprise that the feeder cattle complex managed to score yet another new contract high in the spot August contract. August feeders closed $0.80 higher at $321.27, September feeders closed $1.20 higher at $321.22 and October feeders closed $1.10 higher at $319.12. At Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, compared to their last sale two weeks ago, feeder steers weighing 750 to 1,000 pounds traded $14.00 to $20.00 higher. There wasn't enough comparison to accurately measure the heifers, but a sharply higher trend was noted. Slaughter cows sold steady, and slaughter bulls traded $2.00 to $5.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 98%. The CME feeder cattle index 7/9/2025: up $5.08, $321.84.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex rounded out the day lower as trader support simply wasn't ample enough in the marketplace to garner higher trade. One would have thought that the uptick in domestic pork demand would have helped drive prices higher, but it seemed as though traders took the note of the morning's weaker export report to mean more and simply couldn't shake the doggish news. August lean hogs closed $1.00 lower at $106.22, October lean hogs closed $1.50 lower at $92.27 and December lean hogs closed $1.72 lower at $83.97. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.53 with a weighted average price of $112.43 on 5,577 head. Pork cutouts totaled 208.41 loads, with 182.73 loads of pork cuts and 25.68 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.09, $114.15. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 473,000 head, 66,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 7/8/2025: down $0.29, $107.04.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, packers have likely done the vast majority of the buying they intend to do for the week.
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