GENERAL COMMENTS:
More than anything, Monday's trade throughout the cattle complex seemed to be a nervous state by traders as they reflected upon the massive gains the contracts made just last week and are now left questioning: what happens next? New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, but lower in Texas, and Nebraska/Colorado. July corn is up 9 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 88.14 points and the NASDAQ is up 54.80 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Traders were leery of overly supporting the live cattle complex ahead of seeing what develops fundamentally, especially given the fact that the market saw such aggressive gains just last week throughout the futures complex. Not to mention, traders are also wrestling with the seasonal decline in boxed beef prices and are trying to pinpoint how that's going to affect packers in the weeks to come. August live cattle closed $2.85 lower at $219.35, October live cattle closed $2.92 lower at $216.77 and December live cattle closed $2.12 lower at $217.45. No bids or asking prices developed throughout the day, and it's not likely that anything surfaces in the fed cash cattle market until Thursday or Friday. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, but lower in Texas, and Nebraska/Colorado. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 112,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago.
Last week, Northern dressed cattle traded at $380, which is $10.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at $228 to $230, which is $4.00 to $6.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 77,827 head. Of that 83% (64,756 head) was committed to the market's nearby delivery, while the remaining 17% (13,071 head) was committed to the market's deferred delivery option.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.57 ($377.07) and select down $1.91 ($364.58) with a movement of 95 loads (55.97 loads of choice, 19.71 loads of select, 6.96 loads of trim and 12.39 loads of ground beef).
TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Packers were able to get a sizeable volume of cattle committed to their nearby delivery, but they weren't able to get many cattle committed to their deferred delivery option, which likely means that they'll need to be fairly active again in this week's market.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Although the futures contracts took a steep nosedive by Monday's close, as mentioned in today's midday comments, the futures market's regression throughout the day didn't affect the feeder cattle demand in the countryside. August feeders closed $5.85 lower at $319.47, September feeders closed $5.82 lower at $319.57 and October feeders closed $5.50 lower at $317.70. And given the simple supply situation in the country right now, until supplies become more readily available, it's likely that demand is going to remain strong for feeders regardless of what the futures complex does. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, their open, feeder steers under 750 pounds were selling $5.00 to $10.00 higher, with the heavier weighted cattle selling steady. Feeder cattle over 600 pounds was 63%. The CME feeder cattle index 7/11/2025: down $3.48, $319.89.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex didn't have much better luck than the cattle complex throughout Monday's trade, as all of its contracts closed lower, too. August lean hogs closed $1.45 lower at $103.22, October lean hogs closed $2.97 lower at $87.67 and December lean hogs closed $3.07 lower at $79.20. What was positive, however, was the fact that pork cutout values closed higher, and it wasn't because one single cut had a major jump, but rather because most of the cuts rounded out the stronger. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report, up $2.89 with a weighted average price of $109.58 on 2,985 head. Pork cutouts total 286.38 loads, with 262.06 loads of pork cuts and 24.31 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.38, $113.85. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 477,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 7/10/2025: down $0.04, $107.10.
TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Given that packers weren't very active in last week's market, it's likely that they'll need to be more aggressive this week.
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