GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a rallying day for the cattle complex as support seeped into the market from multiple outlets, and the lean hog complex was able to close stronger, too. December corn is down 2 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.90. New showlists are higher in Nebraska/Colorado, steady in Texas, but lower in Kansas. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 66.27 points and the NASDAQ is up 157.50 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
It was an utterly incredible day for the live cattle complex as the market traded sharply higher from the day's initial start and closed with the same ambitious manner. October live cattle closed $3.57 higher at $237.15, December live cattle closed $4.50 higher at $240.22 and February live cattle closed $4.90 higher at $242.35. Today's incredible rally was really the combination of support from Friday's bullish Cattle on Feed report and from the optimistic statement made by the USDA that they're supposed to be releasing a plan to "help rebuild the American cattle supply, incentive our great ranchers, and drive a full-scale revitalization of the American beef industry." The full press release can be accessed here:
The positive news that spewed into the market more than helped offset the announcement that over the weekend Mexico's officials confirmed that a new case of New World screwworm had been detected just 70 miles from the U.S./Mexico border. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 110,000 head – steady with last week but 8,000 head less than a year ago.
Last week, the bulk of Northern dressed business took place on Thursday and Friday, with dressed deals showing a range of $367 to $376, mostly $370, $6 lower than the prior week's weighted average basis Nebraska. In the South, light scattered business started on Wednesday with a little more taking place each day thereafter, with the bulk coming in late Friday afternoon, well after the Mandatory cutoff. Live transactions were at $239 to $240, steady to $1 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 56,656 head. Of that 89% (50,558 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery option, while the 11% (6,098 head) were committed to the market's deferred delivery option.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.66 ($381.39) and select up $2.17 ($362.09) with a movement of 108 loads (56.16 loads of choice, 35.12 loads of select, 5.93 loads of trim and 11.27 loads of ground beef).
TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. It was interesting to note that 89% of last week's purchases in the fed cash cattle market were committed to the market's nearby delivery option. Which could potentially mean that packers are closer to the knife than we realized and that prices may stand a chance at holding steady this week.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The live cattle contracts may have closed higher, but the feeder cattle contracts closed sharply higher as most of the deferred contracts closed at their daily limit, up $9.25. October feeders closed $7.25 at $361.35, November feeders closed $8.97 higher at $359.90 and January feeders closed $9.25 higher at $353.17. The feeder cattle complex closed roughly $3.00 lower than the market's resistance point, which means that traders can push the contracts a tick higher before they run into immediate resistance pressure. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers were trading steady to $5.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded mostly $2.00 to $6.00 stronger. Steer calves sold $10.00 to $20.00 higher, and heifer calves traded $15.00 to $25.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 55%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/19/2025: down $1.85, $358.78.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex was able to maintain its higher trend through the day's end, but traders were most excited to push the cattle contracts higher. October lean hogs closed $0.82 higher at $98.80, December lean hogs closed $1.12 higher at $88.75 and February lean hogs closed $0.90 higher at $90.70. The market is near resistance, which likely means that unless something powerful develops fundamentally, the market will chop sideways. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $3.22 with a weighted average price of $106.83 on 11,169 head. Pork cutouts are not available because the USDA is experiencing technical issues. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head, steady with a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/18/2025: down $0.36, $105.34.
TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. There was a sizeable volume of cash hogs bought on Monday, but packers will still need more throughout the week.
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