GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a mostly weaker day for the livestock complex, as all the contracts besides a few nearby lean hog contracts closed lower. Throughout the day, Southern live cattle were marked at $237, which is $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $365, which is $6.00 lower than last week's weighted average. December corn is up 1 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 173.96 points and the NASDAQ is down 113.16 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 8,400 mt for 2025 were down 47% from the previous week and 42% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (2,000 mt), Mexico (1,800 mt) and South Korea (1,300 mt). Pork net sales of 29,400 mt for 2025 were up 34% from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (10,000 mt), South Korea (4,900 mt) and Japan (3,800 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
It was a mundane day for the live cattle complex as the market was pressured to trade lower, and that's exactly what it did. Between seeing the equity markets continue to trek lower, or seeing the lower developments in this week's fed cash cattle market, and the continued trend of weaker boxed beef prices, the live cattle complex stood little chance at trading higher. October live cattle closed $2.00 lower at $232.05, December live cattle closed $2.52 lower at $234.30 and February live cattle closed $2.92 lower at $236.05. It was assumed that fed cash cattle prices would trade lower again this week, but the real kicker of today's news was that some of the dressed cattle traded in Nebraska were committed for the weeks of October 6 or October 13, which is a strategic move made by packers as they're trying to build up supply around them so that they can continue to work the cash market lower in the weeks to come. Throughout the day, Southern live cattle were marked at $237, which is $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $365, which is $6.00 lower than last week's weighted average.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head, 3,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $5.42 ($371.97) and select down $2.97 ($353.45) with a movement of 158 loads (122.48 loads of choice, 20.09 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 14.94 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that trade has now developed in both regions, it's likely that prices will remain steady with the week's trend.
FEEDER CATTLE:
It was a bitter day for the feeder cattle complex as the market traded lower throughout the day's entirety, again following in the live cattle market's wake. Thankfully, the spot November contract did at one point today touch the market's 40-day moving average, but bounced higher before closing. October feeders closed $5.57 lower at $354.05, November feeders closed $5.57 lower at $352.22 and January feeders closed $5.40 lower at $345.95. At Clovis Livestock Auction in Clovis, New Mexico, compared to last week, steer calves weighing 300 to 450 pounds traded $17.00 to $26.00 higher, and steer calves weighing 450 to 600 pounds sold $20.00 to $30.00 higher. Feeder steers weighing 600 to 650 pounds sold $3.00 lower, while those weighing 650 to 800 pounds traded $7.00 to $14.00 stronger. Heifer calves weighing 300 to 450 pounds sold $13.00 to $20.00 stronger, and heifers weighing 450 to 500 pounds traded $5.00 lower. But heifers weighing 500 to 600 pounds sold $16.00 to $20.00 higher. And yearling heifers weighing 600 to 700 pounds sold $10.00 to $18.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 33%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/24/2025: up $2.79, $364.10.
LEAN HOGS:
It was a mixed day for the lean hog complex. Between the day's mostly supportive Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report and the higher close of the nearby contracts, the market did have some wins along the way. Now, unfortunately, the market was also pressured by weaker fundamentals on the daily basis as pork cutout values and cash prices were both lower, and by the lower close of the deferred contracts. October lean hogs closed $0.67 higher at $100.10, December lean hogs closed $0.50 higher at $88.62 and February lean hogs closed $0.30 higher at $89.92. Hog prices closed $0.17 lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, with a weighted average price of $104.50 on 3,976 head. Pork cutouts totaled 247.47 loads with 194.55 loads of pork cuts and 52.92 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.64, $110.99. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head, 14,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/23/2025: up $0.10, $105.00.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, packers have likely bought the vast majority of the cash needs for the week.
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