GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was another supportive day for the livestock complex, although some of the nearby live cattle contracts did close lower. Still no cash cattle trade developed. December corn is up 4 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 88.76 points and the NASDAQ is down 215.51 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Tuesday panned out to be your typical "rally and then pull back" type of action out of the futures complex as the nearby contracts did indeed close lower, but the deferred months were able to maintain a stronger close. More than anything, the market is seeming to realize that while boxed beef prices may be seeing a slight seasonal correction, and fed cash cattle prices, too, for that matter, the fact remains that supplies are going to be even thinner in 2026, and those contracts are beginning to see that realization priced into their contract. October live cattle closed $1.55 lower at $235.60, December live cattle closed $1.47 lower at $238.75, and February live cattle closed $1.22 lower at $241.12. No developments surfaced throughout the fed cash cattle market, with asking prices still elusive, and it is most likely that trade will be delayed until after Wednesday at some point.
Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head, steady with a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.59 ($380.80) and select down $2.19 ($359.90) with a movement of 120 loads (78.88 loads of choice, 22.55 loads of select, 8.57 loads of trim and 10.41 loads of ground beef).
WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that packers committed 89% of last week's purchase to their nearby delivery, I tend to believe they are more short-bought than we realize.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Although some of the nearby live cattle contracts closed lower, the feeder cattle market was able to sustain a modest to sizeable rally throughout all its contracts. The nearby contracts saw the smallest gains, but the deferred contracts closed well over $3.00 higher as traders continue to realize that demand should only be stronger for cattle next year as supplies aren't going to be any more plentiful by then. October feeders closed $0.77 higher at $362.12, November feeders closed $0.85 higher at $360.75 and January feeders closed $1.95 higher at $355.12. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to last week feeder steers traded $5.00 to $20.00 higher. It was noted that heavy seven weight steers traded up to $25.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded steady to $10.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 73%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/22/2025: up $2.32, $361.10.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex sported a lofty rally throughout the day, which was significant as the contracts blew past the market's previous resistance threshold. October lean hogs closed $1.72 higher at $100.52, December lean hogs closed $1.97 higher at $90.72 and February lean hogs closed $1.22 higher at $91.92. Pork demand wasn't stellar, but it was helpful that cash prices closed higher on another big movement for the market. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.16 with a weighted average price of $106.99 on 9,285 head. Pork cutouts totaled 328.19 loads with 307.31 loads of pork cuts and 20.88 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.62, $112.68. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/19/2025: down $0.36, $104.98.
WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that the market has now seen two big days in the cash hog market, packers will likely be less active in the market moving forward.
No comments:
Post a Comment