Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Lack of Fundamental Support Cause Contracts to Drift Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a lower-waning day for the livestock complex, where fundamental support neglected to show up, and that obviously affected how traders approached the futures complex today. A few sales were noted in the South in the fed cash cattle market, but the movement wasn't enough to say that any sort of trend has been established yet for the week. December corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 260.42 points and the NASDAQ is down 72.63 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex closed lower as the market simply wasn't able to gain any support from its fundamentals to deem that the market should slow up, stabilize and turn higher. And although the spot December contract came extremely close to closing below its 40-day moving average, it lucked out and was able to maintain a position that was exactly $0.10 higher than the 40-day moving average. That will continue to be a threshold that the market needs to continue to monitor because a close below that point would signal more downward pressure. A few sales were noted in Texas at $239, but there weren't enough cattle sold at that price to say that any sort of trend has been established yet for the week. Asking prices in the South hold firm at $242 and are still not established yet in the North. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $4.44 ($388.18) and select down $6.80 ($366.37) with a movement of 142 loads (95.00 loads of choice, 23.61 loads of select, 4.72 loads of trim and 18.59 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With the board's lower trend and no stabilization in boxed beef prices, cash prices will likely trade lower this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The market that suffered the most throughout Wednesday's trade was the feeder cattle complex. But unfortunately, with such wide daily trading limits, it almost seems as if price swings of $3.00 to $6.00 are just the norm anymore. October feeder cattle closed $5.17 lower at $349.12, November feeders closed $5.27 lower at $344.12 and January feeders closed $5.47 lower at $337.02. At Ozarks Regional Stockyards in West Plains, Missouri, compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers were steady to $4.00 lower. Steer calves traded $3.00 to $6.00 lower, but heifer calves traded $3.00 to $6.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 32%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/16/2025: down $0.27, $361.36.

LEAN HOGS:

Unfortunately, the lean hog complex continued to trade lower throughout Wednesday's trade as the market didn't have enough support develop to keep contracts from drifting lower. October lean hogs closed $0.05 lower at $97.32, December lean hogs closed $0.57 lower at $87.65 and February lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $89.70. Again, this afternoon, consumer demand was a bit disappointing as the carcass prices fell, which was mainly because of the $4.43 drop in the belly. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.42 with a weighted average price of $106.71 on 7,862 head. Pork cutouts total 309.72 loads with 263.41 loads of pork cuts and 46.31 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.30, $110.98. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head, 4,000 head less than a week ago and 6,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/15/2025: down $0.14, $106.00.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, packers have likely fulfilled most of their cash hog needs for the week.




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