Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Mixed Tones Dominate the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It ended up being a mixed day for the livestock complex as the live cattle market closed higher, but both the lean hog and feeder cattle markets closed lower. A few more sales were reported in the North, but prices were lower than Tuesday's business and $8.00 lower than last week's weighted average. December corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 220.42 points and the NASDAQ is up 6.57 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex closed higher as traders attempted to softly recover some of the position lost throughout Tuesday's meltdown. October live cattle closed $0.97 higher at $231.15, December live cattle closed $1.50 higher at $232.67 and February live cattle closed $1.65 higher at $234.00. It was positive to see the spot October contract remain above the market's 40-day moving average, as a close below that threshold would likely signal continued downward movement. Following the light cash cattle trade that was noted in the North on Tuesday at $378 (which is $5.00 lower than last week's weighted average) a few new sales were reported in the North today at $375 which is $3.00 lower than Tuesday's business and $8.00 lower than last week's weighted average, but still no trade has developed in the South. Bids were offered throughout the day in both Kansas and Nebraska, but no new sales were noted. Asking prices for cattle in the South are firm at $243, and in the North at $380. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.03 ($405.64) and select down $3.28 ($383.68) with a movement of 136 loads (91.68 loads of choice, 30.99 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 12.86 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given that some early sales have been reported as much as $5.00 lower, and that boxed beef prices are softer and that packers were able to buy some inventory last week, this week's trend will likely be fully lower.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts may have been able to fully shake off the bad energy that overcame the marketplace on Tuesday, but the feeder cattle market wasn't as quick to jump and run higher as traders remained cautious, given that just a day ago, all its contracts closed limit lower. It was only the September and October 2025 contracts that were able to round out the day higher, but the rest of the contracts closed fully lower, and many of them closed well over $1.00 lower. Once again today, the move is solely one that's being driven by technical market indicators, as the industry knows that the market's tightest supplies are still ahead of us. September feeders closed $1.50 higher at $353.20, October feeders closed $0.47 higher at $350.40 and November feeders closed $0.60 lower at $348.27. At the Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas, compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers over 600 pounds weren't well tested, but a softer undertone was noted. Steers and heifers under 600 pounds sold steady to $10.00 lower, but the sale report did note that multiple groups sold as unvaccinated. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 36%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/9/2025: down $0.39, $365.47.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex ended the day mixed as the nearby contracts managed to close slightly higher while the deferred contracts closed lower. More than anything, the market's biggest limitation currently seems to be its own resistance pressure as the contracts simply don't possess enough support to move beyond that threshold. October lean hogs closed $0.70 higher at $96.82, December lean hogs closed $0.42 higher at $88.27 and February lean hogs closed steady at $90.22. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.66 with a weighted average price of $107.76 on 8.865 head. Pork cutouts totaled 322.85 loads with 290.24 loads of pork cuts and 32.61 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.66, $114.77. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/8/2025: down $0.04, $105.87.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers have now bought aggressively for two days in the market, it's likely that the bulk of their buying is done for the week.




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