Monday, April 14, 2025

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Active Trader Support Allows Contracts to Close Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex started the week out on a strong note as all three of the markets closed higher Monday afternoon thanks to the added support from traders. It will be an irregular week as the market will be closed on Friday, April 18, for Good Friday, which means that the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released on Thursday, April 17. It's also likely that the cash cattle market will trade earlier this week too. May corn is down 5 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $2.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 312.08 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was an impressive day for the live cattle complex. The market was thrilled to again have the support of traders as the market turmoil in which the complex endured last week continues to be a matter that the market seems to be moving past. April live cattle closed $1.47 higher at $203.95, June live cattle closed $2.27 higher at $199.07 and August live cattle closed $1.97 higher at $195.82. It was especially impressive that the spot June contract was indeed able to close above its 40-day moving average, which will continue to be a threshold that the market needs to continue to monitor throughout the week. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Nebraska/Colorado, somewhat higher in Kansas, but lower in Texas. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 112,000 head -- 8,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week, Southern live cattle traded at $204, which is $4 lower than the previous week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $328, which is $9 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 52,705 head. Of that 76% (40,118 head) were committed to the nearby delivery while the remaining 24% (12,587 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.41 ($335.63) and select up $1.89 ($315.85) with a movement of 81 loads (54.71 loads of choice, 9.82 loads of select, 4.63 loads of trim and 11.70 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given that packers have been able to build up some supply in recent weeks, it's likely that prices will be lower again this week considering it's a holiday shortened week for Easter.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex charged onward and forward all throughout Monday's trade as the market was well supported by traders. The spot May contract came up to the resistance level made upon the announcement of additional tariffs. But if external support (especially in the form of strong equity markets remains evident throughout the remainder of the week) there's a chance that traders could attempt to take on that resistance and begin to fill in the chart gap. May feeders closed $2.25 higher at $280.95, August feeders closed $2.47 higher at $286.15 and September feeders closed $2.20 higher at $285.42. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma compared to last week there were significantly more cattle sold and feeder steers weighing over 800 pounds traded $4 to $10 higher while steers under 800 pounds traded $20 to $25 higher. Feeder heifers sold $10 to $20 higher. Steer calves sold $4 to $10 higher and heifer calves traded $20 to $30 stronger. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 62%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/11/2025: up $1.03, $287.16.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex had another successful day as the contracts were all able to close higher thanks to the added support from traders and to the external help of strong equity markets. June lean hogs closed $1.80 higher at $95.12, July lean hogs closed $1.90 higher at $95.50 and August lean hogs closed $1.82 higher at $93.72. It was encouraging that the pork cutout values closed higher, but that's not to say wild price swings weren't seen as the belly closed $6.86 higher, but the rib dropped $7.57 lower. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.11 with a weighted average price of $81.99 on 5,978 head. Pork cutouts totaled 235.01 loads with 199.74 loads of pork cuts and 35.27 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.82, $92.78. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/10/2025: down $0.81, $86.86.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Given that prices were slightly lower today, it's likely that packers will be more aggressive on Tuesday and that prices could inch higher.




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