GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a dismal day for the cattle contracts as the external pressures regarding trade disputes weighed heavily on the live and feeder cattle contracts. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex traded higher throughout the day with ease. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas, and Nebraska/Colorado. May corn is down 2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 527.16 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
It was a lackluster day for the live cattle complex as the contracts drifted slightly lower through Monday's close, seeming mostly fixated on the unsettled nature of the equity markets amid continued concerns over trade chatter. June live cattle closed $0.32 lower at $203.75, August live cattle closed $0.12 lower at $200.00 and October live cattle closed $0.10 lower at $198.22. If boxed beef demand remains prevalent throughout the rest of the week, there's a chance that traders could turn their attention to that positive market fundamental factor. Still, at this point, hesitancy was the market's fixation. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas, and Nebraska/Colorado. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 100,000 head -- 2,000 headless than both a week and a year ago.
Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $332 to $335 which is $4.00 to $7.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at mostly $208 to $210 which is $4.00 to $6.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 67,218 head. Of that, 83% (56,088 head) were committed to the nearby delivery while the remaining 17% (11,130 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.00 ($333.52) and select up $3.22 ($318.77) with a movement of 75 loads (38.50 loads of choice, 9.91 loads of select, 7.86 loads of trim and 19.07 loads of ground beef)
TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. Given that packers were willing to advance substantially the market last week, it's likely that they're still short bought and will need to be active again in this week's market so long as processing speeds aren't cut drastically.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Without the help of the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts fell lower through Monday's close as traders simply didn't see enough support in today's market to justify taking on resistance thresholds without proper support. May feeders closed $1.32 lower at $285.52, August feeders closed $1.72 lower at $289.15 and September feeders closed $1.57 lower at $288.00. At Joplin Regional Stockyard in Carthage, Missouri compared to last week feeder steers $5.00 lower to $10.00 higher and feeder heifers traded $5.00 to $20.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 64%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/18/2025: down $3.12, $289.30.
LEAN HOGS:
The cattle contracts let external factors minimize their ability to trade higher here on Monday, but the lean hog complex didn't see trade concerns derail its momentum. June lean hogs closed $0.02 higher at $98.05, July lean hogs closed $0.15 higher at $98.25 and August lean hogs closed $0.42 higher at $96.87. For the spot June contract to trade much higher (given that the market is facing some short-term resistance pressure) it will be vital that fundamental support is evident throughout the week.
Monday's slaughter is estimated at 356,000 head -- 131,000 head less than a year ago and 125,000 head less than a year ago. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.24 with a weighted average price of $83.59 on 1,312 head. Pork cutouts totaled 230.42 loads 207.43 loads of pork cuts and 22.99 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.61, $96.39. The CME lean hog index 4/17/2025: up $0.25, $85.46.
TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Given that today's movement was thin, trade will likely be more robust on Tuesday.
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