GENERAL COMMENTS:
Trade fluctuations and turbulent conditions continue to put the cattle complex on edge, but the lean hog market is rallying into Thursday's noon hour. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. May corn is up 5 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1,716.49 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 11,900 mt for 2025 were up 28% from the previous week and 14% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Japan (3,300 mt), Mexico (1,100 mt) and Taiwan (1,000 mt). Pork net sales of 23,900 mt for 2025 were down 55% from the previous week and 23% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (8,900 mt), Japan (3,600 mt) and South Korea (3,200 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
After rallying aggressively through Wednesday's close, the live cattle complex is back to trading lower as the market's excitement following President Trump's announcement of the pause on tariffs to most countries has faded to the back burner. The market would love to see some fundamental support arise, but none has developed yet as no cash cattle trade has surfaced. April live cattle are down at $1.20 at $201.65, June live cattle are down $2.70 at $195.75 and August live cattle are down $2.15 at $192.85. No trade has surfaced in the cash cattle market, but bids have again been renewed in Texas at $200. Asking prices remain firm in the South at $208 plus but are still not known for dressed cattle in the North. It looks like trade could be delayed until Friday.
Beef production for 2025 was increased by 15 million pounds as heavier carcass weights and an increase in bull and cow slaughter speeds are more than offsetting the reduction in fed cattle slaughter. The quarterly steer price projection portion of the report was especially interesting as steer prices in the second quarter are now expected to average $204 which is $6.00 more than last month's estimate. Steer prices in the third quarter are expected to average $206 which is $8.00 more than last month's estimate. And steer prices in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $207 which is $7.00 higher than last month's projection. 2025 beef imports were reduced by 15 million pounds, and 2025 beef exports were reduced by 135 million pounds.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.25 ($335.61) and select down $3.30 ($317.31) with a movement of 59 loads (34.95 loads of choice, 7.76 loads of select, 6.43 loads of trim and 9.69 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex is also back to trading lower as the market continues to follow closely to the direction of the live cattle complex. Without any invigorating news or developments arising in the fed cash cattle complex, there isn't enough support in today's market to push the contracts any higher. April feeders are down $0.47 at $283.27, May feeders are down $2.10 at $276.10 and August feeders are down $2.10 at $281.15. The market is again dancing around its 40-day moving average in the spot May contract, which will continue to be a threshold the market grapples with as it now possesses some technical resistance pressure and traders aren't equipped with as much support as they'd ideally like.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is continuing to rally, which is somewhat surprising given that the morning's export report and the WASDE report weren't fruitful. However, with the futures complex seeming to rally mildly thanks to the market having found some technical footing, traders are continuing to advance the contracts. June lean hogs are up $1.30 at $93.00, July lean hogs are up $1.67 at $92.95 and August lean hogs are up $1.62 at $90.95. The market's next resistance will be found around 94.00.
The projected lean hog index for 4/9/2025 is down $0.33 at $87.67, and the actual index for 4/8/2025 is down $0.16 at $88.00. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $85.74, ranging from $80.00 to $88.00 on 2,321 head and a five-day rolling average of $87.57. Pork cutouts total 213.65 loads with 173.86 loads of pork cuts and 39.80 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.73, $90.03.
Thursday's WASDE report shared unpleasant news for the hog and pork markets for 2025. Pork production for 2025 was decreased by 350 million pounds as the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed a reduction in the pig crop for 2024 and showed indications of lower farrowing for much of 2025. Unfortunately, weaker export demand has pushed quarterly hog prices lower throughout the year. Hog prices in the second quarter are expected to average $63, which is $2.00 lower than last month's estimate. Hog prices in the third quarter are expected to average $65 which is $3.00 lower than last month's estimate. And hog prices in the fourth quarter are expected to average $54 which is $2.00 lower than last month's estimate. Pork imports for 2025 fell by 10 million pounds, and pork exports for 2025 fell by 265 million pounds.
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