GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex opened Monday higher, but that seemed to be somewhat of a head-fake for at least the cattle complex as both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets are now trading lower. May corn is down 2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 527.16 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex seemed as though it wanted to trade higher -- but as the days' time has slowly passed by, skepticism has taken center-stage for the cattle complex. One could point to last Friday's Cattle on Feed report for something to blame, but I also think traders are closely monitoring the equity markets and aren't going to trade too oppositely of what they're doing. June live cattle are down $0.12 at $203.95, August live cattle are down $0.15 at $200.02, and October live cattle are down $0.27 at $198.05. And while this may be the market's direction currently, I personally find the bullish push in last week's fed cash cattle market amid higher prices already this morning for boxed beef to be an equally compelling argument as to why the market should trade higher. So once again here we sit -- waiting for time to solve the puzzle. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas, and Nebraska/Colorado.
Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $332 to $335, which is $4.00 to $7.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at mostly $208 to $210 which is $4.00 to $6.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average as well.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.16 ($332.68) and select up $2.13 ($317.68) with a movement of 34 loads (16.32 loads of choice, 3.07 loads of select, 4.72 loads of trim and 9.97 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle contracts are also trading lower -- not finding enough immediate support in Monday's market to justify pressuring resistance and advancing the contracts any higher. May feeders are down $1.05 at $285.80, August feeders are down $1.65 at $289.22 and September feeders are down $1.75 at $287.82. Last week, sale barns saw incredible demand -- which was evidenced by the CME Feeder Cattle Index's price of $293.57. It will be interesting to see if sales are met with the same kind of demand this week.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is continuing to grind mostly higher, although a couple of the nearly contracts are trading slightly lower as traders question if the market has enough support to take on immediate resistance thresholds. June lean hogs are down $0.07 at $97.95, July lean hogs are steady at $98.10 and August lean hogs are up $0.25 at $96.70. The Spot June contract is currently trading near the highest point in which the market has traded since the middle of March.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 4/18/2025 is up $0.25 at $85.71, and the actual index for 4/17/2025 is up $0.25 at $85.46. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $2.91 with a weighted average price of $84.42, ranging from $83.00 to $87.00 on 862 head and a five-day rolling average of $85.44. Pork cutouts total 108.22 loads with 93.37 loads of pork cuts and 14.86 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.19, $97.19.
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