GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was another pressured day for the cattle complex as traders remain flustered about trade dealings, but the lean hog complex was still able to trade higher. Some light cash cattle trade developed in the North $1 higher while Southern live cattle sales were $4 lower. May corn is up 9 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $3.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1,014.79 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 11,900 mt for 2025 were up 28% from the previous week and 14% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Japan (3,300 mt), Mexico (1,100 mt) and Taiwan (1,000 mt). Pork net sales of 23,900 mt for 2025 were down 55% from the previous week and 23% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (8,900 mt), Japan (3,600 mt) and South Korea (3,200 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
It was another thrashing day for the live cattle complex as continued tariff changes pressured the futures complex and once again sent traders panicking, which consequently pushed the contracts lower. April live cattle closed $1.95 lower at $200.85, June live cattle closed $3.17 lower at $195.20 and August live cattle closed $2.80 lower at $192.20. Until trade chatter settles down, unfortunately this type of heightened technical turmoil is expected to continue. There has been some light trade reported in the North at $328, which is $1 higher than last week's weighted average. At the same time, some Southern sales have been marked in Texas at $204, which is $4 lower than last week's weighted average. Asking prices in the South remain firm at $208 to $210. It was also disappointing to note that the lower end of boxed beef prices has softened slightly this week. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head -- 7,000 head less than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago.
Thursday's WASDE report shared that beef production for 2025 was increased by 15 million pounds as heavier carcass weights and an increase in bull and cow slaughter speeds are more than offsetting the reduction in fed cattle slaughter. The quarterly steer price projection portion of the report was especially interesting as steer prices in the second quarter are now expected to average $204, which is $6 more than last month's estimate. Steer prices in the third quarter are expected to average $206, which is $8 more than last month's estimate. And steer prices in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $207, which is $7 higher than last month's projection. 2025 beef imports were reduced by 15 million pounds, and 2025 beef exports were reduced by 135 million pounds.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.57 ($334.29) and select down $5.65 ($314.96) with a movement of 113 loads (71.66 loads of choice, 21.77 loads of select, 7.49 loads of trim and 12.04 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that some light trade has now developed, it's likely that the week's prices are set.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex fell subject to the same pressure in which the live cattle market caved to. And without the live cattle complex lending any additional support, the feeder cattle contracts didn't have much of a leg to stand on when it came to the market's desire to trade higher. Again, the only thing that seemed to be on anyone's mind was the chaotic nature of trade conversations. April feeders closed $0.97 lower at $282.77, May feeders closed $2.90 lower at $275.30 and August feeders closed $3.32 lower at $279.92. At La Junta Livestock Commission in La Junta, Colorado, compared to their last sale feeder steers sold $5 to $7 higher. Feeder heifers under 550 pounds sold $2 to $3 higher with instances of sharply higher except those weighing more than 550 pounds which traded $1 to $3 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 54%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/9/2025: down $3.32, $287.29.
LEAN HOGS:
I'm rather surprised that the lean hog complex was able to maintain its higher position through the day's close. The day's export report wasn't favorable to the complex nor was the monthly WASDE report. However, traders have seemed to find some technical footing in the marketplace, which has allowed them to gain some position over the last two days. June lean hogs closed $1.47 higher at $93.17, July lean hogs closed $1.85 higher at $93.12 and August lean hogs closed $2.10 higher at $91.42. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.41 with a weighted average price of $85.67 on 3,332 head. Pork cutouts total 357.99 loads with 305.99 loads of pork cuts and 52.00 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.06, $89.70. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head -- 8,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/8/2025: down $0.16, $88.00.
Thursday's WASDE report shared unpleasant news for the hog and pork markets for 2025. Pork production for 2025 were decreased by 350 million pounds, as the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed a reduction in the pig crop for 2024 and showed indications of lower farrowing for much of 2025. Unfortunately, weaker export demand has pushed quarterly hog prices lower throughout the year. Hog prices in the second quarter are expected to average $63, which is $2 lower than last month's estimate. Hog prices in the third quarter are expected to average $65 which is $3 lower than last month's estimate. Lastly, hog prices in the fourth quarter are expected to average $54, which is $2 lower than last month's estimate. Pork imports for 2025 fell by 10 million pounds, and pork exports for 2025 fell by 265 million pounds.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It's likely that packers have secured their needs already this week in the cash hog market.
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