Monday, April 28, 2025

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex successfully closed mostly higher Monday afternoon as traders remain eager to support the contracts. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, but lower in Texas and Nebraska/Colorado. May corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $3.00.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 114.09 points and NASDAQ is down 16.81 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was able to close fully higher thanks to the added support which came from last week's strong performance in the fed cash cattle market. With new all-time highs scored again for both live cattle and dressed cattle prices, the decision seems almost effortless to push the contracts higher through Monday's close. June live cattle closed $1.35 higher at $209.60, August live cattle closed $1.22 higher at $205.32 and October live cattle closed $1.15 higher at $203.12. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 104,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 8,000 head less than a year ago. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, but lower in Texas and Nebraska/Colorado.

Last week's cash cattle trade was delayed until Friday, and feedlot managers' patient marketing strategy paid dividends as prices were sharply higher. Live cattle in Kansas traded for mostly $213, which is $3 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Live cattle in Texas traded for mostly $212, which is $2 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $342 to $343, which is $5 to $6 higher than the previous week's weighed average. All of which are new all-time highs for the fed cash cattle market. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 66,661 head. Of that 91% (60,739 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery option, while the remaining 9% (5,922 head) were committed to the deferred option.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $6.22 ($342.70) and select up $5.01 ($325.12) with a movement of 69 loads (38.37 loads of choice, 12.98 loads of select, 5.97 loads of trim and 11.69 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that packers have drastically slashed throughput it's likely that prices could trade steady this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex had another robust day as sales were sharply higher in the countryside, and the futures complex successfully carved out new highs again in the spot August contract. May feeders closed $1.27 higher at $291.80, August feeders closed $0.65 higher at $294.95 and September feeders closed $0.52 higher at $294.07. Although traders are seeing ample support from strong sales in the countryside, it's likely that they could potentially hold the futures complex steady to only slightly higher until they see what cash cattle prices do later this week. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma compared to last week feeder steers and steer calves traded $5.00 to $10.00 higher, and feeder heifers sold $7.00 to $13.00 stronger. Heifer calves traded $5.00 to $10.00 higher as well. The feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 71%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/25/2025: up $3.83, $293.71.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex overall closed mostly higher, although the spot June contract felt slightly pressured throughout the day. More than anything traders mostly likely didn't feel well enough supported as both cash prices and pork cutout values dipped Monday afternoon – and given that the market has had a powerful rally since the beginning of April, it's important that fundamental support remains evident moving forward. June lean hogs closed $0.15 lower at $101.00, July lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $101.22 and August lean hogs closed $0.15 higher at $99.22. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.25 with a weighted average price of $90.14 on 1,567 head. Pork cutouts total 322.05 loads with 276.64 loads of pork cuts and 45.41 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.42, $97.62. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head -- 130,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/28/2025: up $0.27, $87.54.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that pork cutout values were lower this afternoon, packers may be hesitant to overly participate in the cash market.




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