Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Find Technical Footing

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts were finally able to regain some technical footing in the market as traders eventually gave respect to the fact that this week's cash cattle prices did trade higher again. It was also supportive that today's Cattle Inventory report shared yet again another decline in the US beef cowherd, which will limit feeder cattle supplies in the years to come. March corn is down 8 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $3.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 337.47 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: February live cattle down $0.18, April live cattle down $0.72; March feeder cattle down $2.97, April feeder cattle down $0.32; February lean hogs up $1.88, April lean hogs up $2.15.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was thankfully able to round the week out on a stronger note as traders finally sobered up to the fundamental reality of the market and gave respect to the fact that fed cash cattle prices did trade higher again this week. February live cattle closed $0.12 higher at $204.60, April live cattle closed $0.80 higher at $202.30 and June live cattle closed $0.92 higher at $196.70. Throughout the week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $208, which is $6.00 to $7.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $330, which is steady to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 2,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated to be around 600,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 32,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.20 ($327.68) and select up $1.17 ($317.07) with a movement of 90 loads (53.11 loads of choice, 16.81 loads of select, 5.48 loads of trim and 14.90 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. The market's trend is going to continue to trend steady/somewhat higher until packers get enough cattle bought up. Which is why it's imperative to continue to monitor, week in and week out, how many cattle packers get bought each week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was able to round out the day higher following the disappointing trade seen on Wednesday and Thursday. Traders saw the higher trend in the live cattle complex and were finally comfortable again trading the contracts higher. This was due to enough technical support seeping over from the live cattle market's higher trend, and more importantly, from the fed cash cattle market's higher trend this week. But above all else, the feeder cattle complex could potentially grab another gear and trade higher again next week as today's Cattle Inventory report again showed a decrease in the number of beef cows in the U.S. There was a decrease in the beef replacement heifers as well -- so feeder cattle supplies will remain inherently thin through 2025 and into 2026. 

March feeders closed $2.52 higher at $275.72, April feeders closed $2.80 higher at $275.12 and May feeders closed $2.82 higher at $273.12. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers traded $6.00 to $9.00 higher and steer calves sold $8.00 to $11.00 higher. Feeder heifers and heifer calves sold $3.00 to $8.00 higher, except those weighing 500 to 600 pounds, which sold $10.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold $7.00 to $11.00 higher, and slaughter bulls sold $5.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 68%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/30/2025: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed mixed as the nearby contracts struggled and fell below the market's resistance at $91.00, but the deferred contracts were able to close slightly higher. Seeing a decline in the nearby contracts is disappointing for the hog enthusiasts as pork cutout values have been higher this week and the week's export report was supportive as well. But I guess the market's resistance at $91.00 simply was more than what traders were able to wrestle with. February lean hogs closed $0.20 lower at $84.17, April lean hogs closed $1.57 lower at $90.35 and June lean hogs closed $0.87 lower at $103.00. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.81 with a weighted average price of $83.43 on 2,665 head. Pork cutouts total 282.44 loads with 252.58 loads of pork cuts and 29.87 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.82, $94.75. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head – steady with a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 156,000 head. The CME lean hog index 1/29/2025: up $0.47, $83.06.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers rarely buy aggressively in the cash market on Mondays.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Complex Trades Higher Ahead of the Cattle Inventory Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts have changed their tune as they're again trading higher thanks to the fundamental support of stronger fed cash cattle sales this week. However, the lean hog complex has run into some technical pressure, which is keeping its nearby contracts trading slightly lower. The highly anticipated Cattle Inventory report is set to be released later this afternoon. March corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $1.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 54.51 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex has again changed its tune as the market seems more willing today to see the merit in this week's stronger cash cattle trade, which is something traders were blind to throughout Thursday's sharp descent. February live cattle are up $0.55 at $204.97, April live cattle are up $0.77 at $202.27 and June live cattle are up $0.75 at $196.52. Some more trade has developed in Nebraska live at $208 to $210, but otherwise, the market hasn't reported any new sales. Thus far throughout the week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $208, which is $6.00 to $7.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $330, which is steady to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Some more cash cattle trade could trickle in here and there as feedlot managers aim to clean up their showlists ahead of the week's conclusion, but largely it's looking like the week's prices are set. Please note that later this afternoon USDA will release the Cattle Inventory Report, which will be a big-ticket item for the complex, and the US beef cow herd is expected to be lower once again.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.08 ($327.56) and select up $0.35 ($316.25) with a movement of 62 loads (37.57 loads of choice, 8.09 loads of select, 3.78 loads of trim and 12.83 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Thanks to the additional support of the live cattle complex's higher trend this morning and the fundamental support of strong fed cattle prices -- the feeder cattle contracts are again able to trade higher themselves. March feeders are up $1.47 at $274.67, April feeders are up $1.27 at $273.60 and May feeders are up $0.82 at $271.12. The market will be anxiously awaiting to see what the Cattle Inventory report leases later this afternoon, and if there is again a reduction in the US beef cowherd (which is anticipated) then that should bode well for the feeder cattle complex as it shows that supplies will continue to be limited in the upcoming years.

LEAN HOGS:

Meanwhile, the lean hog complex's nearby contracts have run into some resistance as the market's nearby contracts are trading slightly lower while the deferred months are continuing with their rally. February lean hogs are up $0.55 at $85.00, April lean hogs are down $0.65 at $91.27 and June lean hogs are down $0.20 at $103.72. Today's lower technical move isn't because of a lack of demand either -- pork cutout values are up $2.69 this morning, showing excellent demand. Instead, today's technical weakness stems from the fact that again traders are up against resistance and aren't confident that they should challenge this threshold ahead of the week's end.

The projected lean hog index for 1/30/2025 is up $0.42 at $83.48, and the actual index for 1/29/2025 is up $0.47 at $83.06. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $84.03, ranging from $78.00 to $86.00 on 2,290 head and a five-day rolling average of $83.52. Pork cutouts total 192.29 loads with 170.90 loads of pork cuts and 21.39 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.69, $95.62.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Inventory Report to be Released Today

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The January feeder cattle contract went off the board Thursday at a record high $281.90. However, later contracts suffered losses averaging $2.50. Live cattle showed similar losses with April taking the brunt of it with a loss of $3.45. The fundamentals did not change and even were better from the cash standpoint. Cash traded $6.00 to $7.00 higher in the South and $2.00 higher in the North. This should continue Friday as packers need to finish buying for the week. Packers continue to pull back on slaughter but to no avail. Cattle weights are higher, making up for the lighter slaughter numbers. Boxed beef fell Thursday with choice down $3.06 and select down $4.77. The Cattle Inventory report will be released Friday afternoon, providing an indication of the status of the beef and dairy herds.

Hog futures found support Thursday with all contracts closing higher. The gains were not large -- but gains, nevertheless. The head-and-shoulders bottoms in the June and July contracts suggest further upside potential if technical traders have their way. The limiting factor may be the choppiness of cash and cutouts. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $2.87. Pork cutout declined $0.38. Some support stemmed from pork export sales totaling 33,600 metric tons (mt), indicating current prices are not reducing international interest. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 150,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The jump in cash cattle prices should bring traders back into the market as futures are below cash.	1)	The large drop in boxed beef prices could indicate beef prices may have reached a top or may be near a top. Beef prices will not go up forever.
2)	Feedlots are in control as tight supplies keep them asking for more and packers need to pay.	2)	The Cattle Inventory report may show more cattle than expected as there may have been a slight rebuilding of the herd.
3)	Traders remain bullish on the hog market in the anticipation cash and cutouts will trend higher. The average weight last week was 290.8 pounds, down 0.9 pounds from the previous week and steady with a year ago.	3)	Traders need to see consistent strength in cash hogs and cutouts to push futures through technical resistance and increase buying interest.
4)	The head-and-shoulders bottoms on the June and July contracts suggest further upside if the pattern is to be fulfilled.	4)	Hog supplies have not shown any signs of tightening. Packers have a sufficient supply of market-ready hogs.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Live Cattle Trade $6.00 to $7.00 Higher, Dressed Cattle Trade Steady to $2.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex traded mixed throughout the day as the lean hog complex continued to inch higher. However, the cattle contracts were technically troubled throughout the day, even though fed cash cattle prices traded higher. Southern live cattle were marked at $208, which is $6.00 to $7.00 higher. Dressed cattle sold for $330, which is steady to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. March corn is down 6 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $5.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 168.61 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 20,200 mt for 2025 were primarily for South Korea (11,300 mt), Japan (3,800 mt) and Mexico (2,100 mt). Pork net sales of 33,600 mt for 2025 were primarily for Mexico (11,800 mt), China (11,200 mt) and South Korea (3,700 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was an odd market to watch throughout the day as the marketplace had two very different realities and influences pulling upon it. The technical side of the market scurried lower at the day's start and was simply unwilling to look at any other possible direction other than trading sharply lower. Meanwhile, the cash cattle market continued to do what it has recently done best -- and that's to continue to trade higher. Throughout the day, Southern live cattle traded at mostly $208, which is $6.00 to $7.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $330, which is steady to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Some more cash cattle trade will likely develop ahead of the week's end, but the week's prices are likely set. The big-ticket item to watch for on Friday will be the Cattle Inventory report, which will likely showcase another decline in the U.S. beef cow herd. February live cattle closed $2.55 lower at $204.47, April live cattle closed $3.45 lower at $201.50 and June live cattle closed $2.97 lower at $195.77. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.06 ($327.48) and select down $4.77 ($315.90) with a movement of 138 loads (89.92 loads of choice, 26.40 loads of select, 12.54 loads of trim and 9.58 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that cattle have now traded in both regions, it's likely that any more trade that does develop will remain steady with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was merely glued to the live cattle complex as it followed closely the live cattle market's direction. March feeders closed $2.07 lower at $273.20, April feeders closed $2.27 lower at $272.32 and May feeders closed $2.67 lower at $270.30. Even though the fed cash cattle market traded higher throughout the day, traders seemed unwilling to focus on anything besides the technical mayhem unraveling some of the cattle complex's recent success. At Torrington Livestock Auction in Torrington, Wyoming, compared to last week, steer calves under 650 pounds traded $3.00 to $5.00 higher, with a few instances where prices reached $10.00 higher. Heifer calves traded unevenly steady, with 400-pound heifers trading $5.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 46%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/29/2025: up $1.62, $281.07.

LEAN HOGS:

Although the cattle contracts suffered throughout the day, the lean hog complex continued to inch higher through Thursday's close. February lean hogs closed $0.47 higher at $84.37, April lean hogs closed $0.60 higher at $91.92 and June lean hogs closed $0.40 higher at $103.87. Although it was somewhat disappointing to see pork cutout values dip slightly lower, the morning's strong export report did help lend some continued encouragement to the futures complex. The big obstacle that the lean hog complex now has to dance with is whether or not trades want to take on the market's resistance at $92.00. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.87 with a weighted average price of $80.62 on 1,693 head. Pork cutouts totaled 213.04 loads, with 188.57 loads of pork cuts and 24.48 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.38, $92.93. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head -- 25,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/28/2025: up $0.48, $82.59.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, packers are all but done buying this week in the cash hog market.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cash Cattle Trade Higher While the Board Weakens

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Thursday's noon hour as the cattle contracts are seeing a midweek setback, but the lean hog contracts continue to trade higher. Some live cattle have sold in the South for $208, which is $6.00 to $7.00 higher than last week's weighted average. March corn is down 6 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $5.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 71.70 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 20,200 mt for 2025 were primarily for South Korea (11,300 mt), Japan (3,800 mt) and Mexico (2,100 mt). Pork net sales of 33,600 mt for 2025 were primarily for Mexico (11,800 mt), China (11,200 mt) and South Korea (3,700 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is currently being pulled in two very opposite directions as, technically speaking, the market is enduring what appears to be a midweek correction as the contracts are falling anywhere from $2.00 to $3.00 lower, all while the cash cattle market is again trading $6.00 to $7.00 higher in the Southern plains. February live cattle are down $3.05 at $203.97, April live cattle are down $3.90 at $201.05 and June live cattle are down $3.17 at $195.57. The market's nearest support plane lies at $198 in the spot April contract, which is a steep fall away from its current price of $201.05. Pinpointing what's caused the technical turmoil this morning is challenging, as there's more than enough fundamental support developing to outweigh most anything. But given the sheer fact that the contracts are trading at all-time high levels, traders could just be showing signs of some technical exhaustion. Bids of $330 have surfaced in Nebraska, but otherwise, there's been no business in the North.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.68 ($328.86) and select down $4.23 ($316.44) with a movement of 73 loads (35.54 loads of choice, 19.69 loads of select, 12.54 loads of trim and 5.10 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is following right in line with the live cattle market's trend this morning as the contracts are enduring stiff technical pressure. March feeders are down $2.82 at $272.42, April feeders are down $3.07 at $271.52 and May feeders are down $3.47 at $269.50. And even though the fed cash cattle market is proving that it's going to trade higher again this week, traders seem fixated on the contract's morning mayhem and somewhat unable to refocus on the fundamental developments at play.

LEAN HOGS:

While the cattle contracts dip lower, the lean hog complex continues with its upward trek as the market remains committed to advancing its position. It's rather impressive that traders continue to push the contracts higher amid the setback in the cattle contracts and upon seeing a slightly lower price in the morning's cutout value. But the carcass's lower price is mostly because of the $3.09 decline in the belly. February lean hogs are up $0.27 at $84.17, April lean hogs are up $0.32 at $91.65 and June lean hogs are up $0.10 at $103.57.

The projected lean hog index for 1/29/2025 is up $0.47 at $83.06 and the actual index for 1/28/2025 is up $0.48 at $82.59. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 546 head have traded this morning, and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $83.00. Pork cutouts total 119.93 loads, with 106.02 loads of pork cuts and 13.92 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.12, $93.19.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - A Further Price Correction May Take Place

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The bullish attitude of the market remains but traders realized the market was higher than it should be relative to cash. The euphoria of recent days needed a correction. The correction may not last long if cash trades higher this week. Nothing has been done so far with asking prices not established in the North. That may push trading back to Friday. Feedlots will hold for higher cash and will have no problem holding cattle over another week if necessary. Boxed beef prices were lower with choice down $1.91 and select down $1.29. Lower boxed beef on Wednesday is not expected to have an impact on the market Thursday. Thursday is the last day to trade January feeder cattle.

Hog futures made new contract highs in the June and later months Wednesday. Buying interest subsided and futures slipped back into negative territory into the close. The April contract was able to close higher. The National Daily Direct Afternoon report showed cash down $0.83 while pork cutouts increased $0.45. The price action on Wednesday was not bearish to the market, but the result of some profit-taking after recent gains. Packers are expected to be unaggressive Thursday, which may result in lower cash. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 150,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The fundamentals of the cattle market have not changed and the weakness on Wednesday was just a price correction.	1)	The weakness of cattle futures Wednesday may have been the beginning of a three-day price correction as the fund traders take some profits.
2)	Feedlots are expected to hold for higher cash or hold cattle over until next week if they do not get it.	2)	The lofty levels of cattle futures and cash may run into consumer resistance as the market cannot go up forever without slowing demand.
3)	Pork demand is holding and increasing as will be reflected in the market. The weakness on Wednesday was just some profit-taking.	3)	Hog futures are notorious for a retracement after a significant price move. Traders may take some profits off the table for now.
4)	New contract highs in most hog contracts keep the trend higher and traders will remain confident over higher prices to come.	4)	The upside might be limited for hogs unless both cash and cutouts can find further strength and move higher. Higher prices are already factored into the market.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Let Contracts Drift Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mostly lower Wednesday afternoon as traders weren't as bold as they were earlier in the week. No substantial cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, but packer demand should improve on Thursday. March corn is up 11 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $8.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 136.83 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex ended the day lower as traders were skeptical of advancing the contracts any higher without reassurance of what this week's cash cattle trade is going to do. February live cattle closed $1.52 lower at $207.02, April live cattle closed $2.32 lower at $204.95 and June live cattle closed $2.60 lower at $198.75. The fact that boxed beef prices closed lower isn't dramatically alarming as this is a seasonal trend for this time of year that we fully expect as consumer demand weakens slightly until the warmer spring weather comes and grilling is fully underway. No substantial cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, as feedlot managers and packers again go toe-to-toe. Packer demand should improve by Thursday, although it's possible that the week's trade could be delayed until Friday as both parties have different desires for the market's outcome. Asking prices are noted in the South at $210 but are still not established for the North. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- steady with a week and a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.91 ($330.54) and select down $1.29 ($320.67) with a movement of 160 loads (127.81 loads of choice, 16.26 loads of select, 4.41 loads of trim and 11.51 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Given that feedlot managers are still holding out for higher prices, it's likely that cattle will indeed trade steady to somewhat higher this week when trade does develop.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the live cattle contracts not lending technical support and the nearby corn contracts closing $0.10 to $0.11 higher -- the feeder cattle complex had little option but to close lower. March feeders closed $2.97 lower at $275.27, April feeders closed $3.20 lower at $274.60 and May feeders closed $3.30 lower at $272.97. Today's lower descent doesn't make me question the market's momentum, but rather instead believe that traders pulled the reigns back on the market until they see fundamental reassurance again. At Winter Livestock Auction in La Junta, Colorado compared to last week feeder steers sold $11.00 to $12.00 higher, and feeder heifers traded $5.00 to $9.00 higher with instances of sharply higher across all weight classes. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 49%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/28/2025: up $0.39, $279.45.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex had a mixed day, as the contracts were all trading higher ahead of the day's noon hour, but trader support fizzled out as the afternoon traded on. Thankfully, however, the spot April contract was able to maintain its higher position through the day's close, which is significant as traders kept that contract above the recently concurred resistance threshold at $91.00. February lean hogs closed steady at $83.90, April lean hogs closed $0.42 higher at $91.32 and June lean hogs closed $0.70 lower at $103.47. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.83 with a weighted average price of $83.49 on 5,769 head. Pork cutouts total 286.90 loads with 244.77 loads of pork cuts and 42.13 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.45, $93.31. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head -- 39,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/27/2025: up $0.17, $82.11.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers have been aggressive in the cash hog market now for two days in a row, it's likely that the vast majority of their buying is done for this week in the cash market.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Hit the Pause Button as Traders Wait to See What Happens With Cash Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The lean hog complex continues to rally while the cattle complex pumps the brakes on its rally as traders wait to see what happens in the cash cattle market. At this point still no bids have surfaced. March corn is up 9 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $7.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 23.93 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex has rallied aggressively all week, but at Wednesday's start, cautiousness poured into the marketplace and has remained the theme ever since. One could point to the day's downturn in boxed beef prices as part of the catalyst for today's weakness, and while that might be adding some pressure to the day, we also seasonally expect boxed beef prices to turn lower during this time as we are a long way away from prime grilling weather. February live cattle are down $0.90 at $207.65, April live cattle are down $1.75 at $205.52 and June live cattle are down $1.77 at $199.57. The cash cattle market is still silent with no bids having surfaced just yet. Asking prices are firm in the South at $210 but are still not established for Northern feedlots. Packer demand should begin to improve at any time now, but at this point, it's looking like trade will be delayed until Thursday or Friday.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.68 ($330.77) and select down $1.61 ($320.35) with a movement of 101 loads (78.68 loads of choice, 13.93 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 8.82 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon seeing the swift $0.08 to $0.09 rally in the corn complex, and the cautiousness that arose in the live cattle complex -- it comes as no surprise that the feeder cattle contracts are also trading lower into Wednesday's noon hour. March feeders are down $1.52 at $276.72, April feeders are down $1.65 at $276.62 and April feeders are down $1.85 at $275.95. Unless the fed cash cattle market begins to note some trade at higher prices, it's unlikely that the feeder cattle contracts will change their direction ahead of the day's end.

LEAN HOGS:

Higher cash prices, higher pork cutout values, and yes, the lean hog contracts are also trading higher as traders have taken out the resistance at $91.00. With support flowing bountifully to the lean hog complex, traders collectively decided to advance the contracts again this morning. This not only helped prices surpass the resistance at $91.00, but now the nearby contracts are nearly the market's long-term resistance at $92.00. February lean hogs are up $0.45 at $84.35, April lean hogs are up $1.35 at $92.25 and June lean hogs are up $0.20 at $104.37.

The projected lean hog index for 1/28/2025 is up $0.48 at $82.59 and the actual index for 1/27/2025 is up $0.17 at $82.11. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.53 with a weighted average price of $83.87, ranging from $78.00 to $85.50 on 4,603 head and a five-day rolling average of $83.00. Pork cutouts total 179.25 loads with 157.38 loads of pork cuts and 21.87 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.50, $94.36.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Up, Up and Away!

GENERAL COMMENTS:

There seems to be no ceiling in the cattle market. New contract highs and strong gains keep traders bullish. The market is overbought, but traders do not seem to care. Managed money traders have a record-long position in feeders and may have the same in live cattle by this time, but traders do not care. The strength of boxed beef and the strong potential for higher cash cattle this week are driving the market higher. One would think oxygen is getting thinner at these levels, but until demand slows and cattle supplies loosen, who knows where prices will go? Boxed beef was higher on Tuesday with choice up $2.37 and select up $1.41. Slaughter is running lighter, but cattle weights are higher. The bi-annual Cattle Inventory report will be released on Friday and is expected to show bullish numbers.

Hogs have followed cattle higher but not to the same extent. New contract highs were made in the June through October months. June and July pushed back above $104 as traders are buying for the long term. Packers were aggressive on Tuesday with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report up $3.93 and the weighted average price at $84.32. Pork cutout values declined $0.30. The more aggressive nature of packers over the past two weeks might indicate hog numbers have tightened a little and they are more aggressive to purchase what they need. Further gains are expected in futures Wednesday as the trend is higher. The April contract is poised to break above technical resistance at $91.25.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The cattle market is bullish and without negative news there may be nothing to slow it down. Prices may continue to climb.	1)	The cattle market is overbought and any negative news could trigger profit-taking.
2)	Cattle numbers are tightening and that will continue for some time in the future. The cycle to rebuild may take 2 to 3 years.	2)	Historically, when a market moves rapidly higher and it moves to levels outside the realm of normal, the market generally falls faster than it rose. Once liquidation begins, cattle traders may sell quickly.
3)	Hogs are in demand and the packers are aggressively purchasing them to fill slaughter needs and pork demand.	3)	It seems much of the increase in hog futures is due to the perception that pork demand will improve and not by the current cutout values.
4)	New contract highs in some hog contracts should bring in more buying interest as traders feel confident over higher prices.	4)	Hog futures may have difficulty moving higher without the further indication of stronger prices.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Push Contracts Higher Again

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex had yet another momentous day as all three of the markets closed higher and the cattle contracts again scored new life of the contract highs. Asking prices in the South are noted at $208 to $210 but are still not established in the North. March corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 136.77 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex once again scored another higher close for the day as the market's momentum is truly unmatched at this point. Trader's buy-in of the market's long-term bullish trajectory has seemed to become utterly undeniable this past week as they continue to advance the contracts higher and higher, day by day. February live cattle closed $2.87 higher at $208.55, April live cattle closed $3.45 higher at $207.27 and June live cattle closed $3.15 higher at $201.35. The cash cattle complex still hasn't seen any sizeable trade develop as feedlot managers are once again aiming to trade cattle higher again this week. Asking prices are noted in the South at $208 to $210 but are not yet established in the North. Some packer interest could begin to surface on Wednesday, but trade will likely be delayed until Thursday or Friday. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.37 ($332.45) and select up $1.41 ($321.96) with a movement of 126 loads (75.63 loads of choice, 22.58 loads of select, 15.83 loads of trim and 11.64 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With the help of the board, it's likely feedlot managers will once again be able to trade cattle higher this week as packers are still short bought.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the active support of the live cattle contract's higher trade, it was a no-brainer for the feeder cattle market to also trade higher amid such support from traders. March feeders closed $3.00 higher at $278.25, April feeders closed $3.37 higher at $277.80 and May feeders closed $3.47 higher at $276.27. Today's higher close is yet again another achievement of new all-time contract highs in many of the nearby contracts. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to last week feeder steers traded $2.00 to $10.00 higher. Feeder heifers weighing under 450 pounds sold $4.00 to $8.00 lower, but the heavier weighted heifers sold $2.00 to $10.00 higher as well. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 65%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/27/2025: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was also able to close fully higher as the market continues to year to trade higher and hopefully take out its nearby resistance at $91.00. The market wasn't able to accomplish that goal today, but traders once again came close to that threshold. It was a little disappointing to see pork cutout values dip slightly lower, which will make it all the more important for traders that demand is supportive on Wednesday if they're going to be able to take on the technical goals at hand. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $3.93 with a weighted average price of $84.32 on 3,280 head. Pork cutouts totaled 335.29 loads with 277.78 loads of pork cuts and 57.51 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.30, $92.86. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head -- 7,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/24/2025: up $0.02, $81.94.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Hog prices were notably higher today, but the week's volume will need to increase still before the week concludes.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Continue to Propel Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's another prosperous rallying day for the livestock complex as all three markets are trading higher into Tuesday's noon hour. Still no substantial cash cattle trade has developed but asking prices are now noted in the South at $208 to $210. March corn is up 5 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $0.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 109.53 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is continuing to rally aggressively as traders' support is simply unwavering at this point. Even though the contracts continue to press into new, life of the contract high price points, traders are actively advancing the market without question as they continue to see the validity and merit of the market's long-term bullish trajectory. February live cattle are up $2.72 at $208.40, April live cattle are up $3.45 at $207.32 and June live cattle are up $3.02 at $201.22. Asking prices are noted at $208 to $210 in the South but are still not established in the North. It's assumed that cattle will trade steady/somewhat higher again this week, but trade will likely be delayed until Wednesday or later.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.46 ($322.54) and select up $2.36 ($322.91) with a movement of 86 loads (48.97 loads of choice, 13.36 loads of select, 14.14 loads of trim and 9.51 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was leery of being too overly ambitious through Monday's market, but low and behold, once traders saw the aggressive surge of the live cattle contracts, the feeder cattle market began to rally as well. March feeders are up $2.65 at $277.95, April feeders are up $3.05 at $277.47 and May feeders are up $3.20 at $276.00. With the expectation that fed cattle prices will trade steady to somewhat higher again this week, the feeder cattle market could likely see all the support it needs throughout the rest of the week so long as the market's fundamentals prevail.

LEAN HOGS:

Traders are again up against resistance levels as they continue to see the fundamental support of stronger pork cutout values and are eager to advance the contracts. But now that the nearby contracts are at resistance levels, traders are going to have to decide if the market's momentum and support are strong enough to justify trading above the resistance at $91.00 in the spot April contract. Traders will continue to closely monitor pork demand in the days ahead as demand is crucial right now as they weigh their technical options.

The projected lean hog index for 1/27/2025 is up $0.17 at $82.11, and the actual index for 1/24/2025 is up $0.02 at $81.94. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $5.34 with a weighted average price of $83.34, ranging from $77.00 to $85.00 on 1,095 head and a five-day rolling average of $81.23. Pork cutouts total 205.05 loads with 170.55 loads of pork cuts and 34.50 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.49, $93.65.

Cattle on Feed Down One Percent

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.8 million head on January 1, 2025. The inventory was one percent below January 1, 2024. The inventory includes 7.25 million steers and steer calves, up one percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 61 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.58 million head, down three percent from 2024. “This report was about as bullish of a report that cattlemen could have hoped for,” says DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart. “It’s a relief to see more marketings taking place, which, in combination with lighter placements, helped decrease the total number of cattle on feed.” Marketings of fed cattle during December totaled 1.74 million head, one percent higher than last year. Other disappearances totaled 59,000 head during December, two percent below 2023.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures Should See Further Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures opened higher Monday and extended the gains to new contract highs before buying interest ran out. Futures then fell back into negative territory. Live cattle rebounded into the close while feeder cattle closed with losses. The exception was the January feeder cattle contract, which stops trading Thursday. The friendly Cattle on Feed report should fuel the fire for higher prices. Feedlots will hold for high cash again this week. Packers have lost control over the market and would need to cut slaughter drastically to avoid paying higher cash for cattle. This is not likely as boxed beef was up strongly with choice gaining $2.16 and select up $4.26. Demand is strong and the packers need to meet it. The packers continue to purchase some cattle for deferred delivery but have not purchased a sufficient supply and continue to pay more for cattle. Feeder cattle closed lower, but that does not change the trend. Feeder cattle are in demand.

Hog futures closed higher through the October contract and were slightly lower thereafter. Trader optimism is bullish and is carrying the market despite limited support from the underlying cash and cutouts. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.01 and begins the week on a stronger note similar to last week. Pork cutouts gained $1.47, indicating demand may be improving. The record-high beef prices should move more demand over to pork as consumers may not continue to pay the high beef prices.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	New contract highs in live and feeder cattle keep traders confident over higher prices. This is supported by strong demand and higher boxed beef prices.	1)	Each day the cattle market moves higher means it is closer to the top. The market will not go up forever. High prices always cure high prices.
2)	The feedlots are in control and will ask for higher prices again this week as supplies remain tight and packers need to maintain slaughter to meet demand.	2)	Record-long future positions may trigger a significant price correction once the fundamentals and traders' attitudes change.
3)	Hog futures are poised to move back to the highs as traders are friendly to the market for the long term.	3)	Hog futures will need continued support from cash and cutouts to keep the interest of traders in the market, otherwise the market could sell off again.
4)	The high beef prices seem to be turning more demand over to pork. Consumers will not continue to pay higher beef prices.	4)	Packers have not had to be very aggressive in the cash market as there has been a sufficient supply of hogs. Cash may have limited upside potential.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Live Cattle and Lean Hogs Push Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle and lean hog contracts rounded out the day higher as traders were thankful for the continued fundamental support. Meanwhile, the feeder cattle complex isn't taking anything for granted and wants to see how this week's fed cash cattle trade pans out before advancing the contracts. March corn is down 4 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $4.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 289.33 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market's unwavering rally continued into Monday's trade as the contracts were once again pushed higher by strong trader support and were able to end the day higher yet again. February live cattle closed $0.90 higher at $206.67, April live cattle closed $0.80 higher at $203.82 and June live cattle closed $0.82 higher at $198.20. It's utterly incredible that the market is continuing to run as aggressively as it is given that both fed cattle prices are trading at new all-time highs and that the futures contracts are trading at life-of-the-contract highs as well. And last but certainly not least, it was helpful that boxed beef prices were supportive again today although we know that box prices could endure some seasonal pressure in the weeks ahead as it's a long time until grilling season. New showlists appear to be mixed, slightly higher in Texas and Nebraska, but lower in Kansas. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $201 to $202 which is steady to $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded anywhere from $328 to $330 which is $6.00 to $8.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 82,583 head. Of that 76% (62,966 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 24% (19,617 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.16 ($330.08) and select up $4.26 ($320.55) with a movement of 137 loads (92.93 loads of choice, 29.97 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 13.80 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Until packers get a plethora of cattle bought up, feedlot managers are going to continue to push the market higher.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Although the live cattle contracts rounded out the day higher and corn prices were slightly lower at Monday's close, the feeder cattle market wasn't as confident and consequently fell lower. March feeders are down $1.32 at $275.25, April feeders are down $1.02 at $274.42 and May feeders are down $0.60 at $272.80. Today's lower move wasn't a decision made because of fundamental indications, but rather because traders are aware of just how high the market's prices currently are and want to see how the week's fed cash cattle trade is going to pan out before advancing the contracts anymore. At the midsession point at Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week feeder steers were trading $5.00 to $10.00 higher, and feeder heifers were trading $5.00 to $8.00 stronger. Steer and heifer calves were selling unevenly steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 65%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/24/2025: down $0.35, $277.93.

LEAN HOGS:

With the help of traders and continued support from consumers -- the lean hog complex was able to push an aggressive rally through Monday's close. February lean hogs closed $0.75 higher at $83.05, April lean hogs closed $1.67 higher at $89.87 and June lean hogs closed $1.82 higher at $103.30. It was mostly because of the $5.24 jump in the butt and the $3.53 jump in the loin that the afternoon's carcass price was able to close higher – but more than anything traders remain pleased with the continued support of consumers which is helping advance the contracts. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report up $0.01 with a weighted average price of $80.39 on 1,011 head. Pork cutouts totaled 306.14 loads with 273.69 loads of pork cuts and 32.46 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.47, $93.16. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head -- 61,000 head more than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/23/2025: down $0.01, $81.92.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Monday's cash hog trade was minimal so packers will likely be more aggressive in the market on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Mixed Tones Summarize the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is entering the new week mixed as traders want to advance the cattle contracts again but are somewhat skeptical of doing so without knowing what this week's cash cattle market will do. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex is rallying as it's thankful to see the continued support of strong consumer demand. March corn is down 5 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $4.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 123.86 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading mostly mixed into Monday's noon hour as the market wants to continue to thrive and embrace its rallying momentum. Still, on the other hand, traders aren't naive to the fact that the contracts and the cash market are currently trading at price points some never believed they ever would. February live cattle are up $0.87 at $205.65, April live cattle are up $0.05 at $203.10 and June live cattle are up $0.12 at $197.50. This week will be a big one for the cattle complex as later this week the Cattle Inventory report is set to be released which will help market participants determine whether or not any cowherd rebuild build has begun. I don't believe that we will see any signs of that just yet, and if I'm wrong and there has been a small percentage of heifers kept back for breeding -- I still don't believe it will be to a large enough effect to add a significant number of calves into the marketplace. New showlists appear to be mixed, slightly higher in Texas and Nebraska, but lower in Kansas.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $201 to $202 which is steady to $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded anywhere from $328 to $330 which is $6.00 to $8.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.35 ($328.27) and select up $1.73 ($318.02) with a movement of 86 loads (55.40 loads of choice, 23.09 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.18 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Although the nearby live cattle contracts are trading higher, and it's widely accepted that Friday's Cattle on Feed Report was indeed bullish -- the feeder cattle contracts are trading steady/somewhat lower as the market seems to be apprehensive about trading any higher given that the contracts are already trading at contract high price points. March feeders are down $0.67 at $275.90, April feeders are down $0.20 at $275.90 and May feeders are down $0.30 at $273.10. The complex could regain some strength later this week -- but much of the market's fate is going to rely on the live cattle market's direction, how this week's fed cash cattle market pans out as well as the overall sediment and moral of traders this week.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is rallying aggressively this morning as traders have run the contracts back up to resistance levels, most likely because of the continued support in which they're seeing from consumer demand. February lean hogs are up $0.55 at $82.85, April lean hogs are up $2.02 at $90.22 and June lean hogs are up $1.90 at $103.37. And so long as the market continues to see support from consumers, it's likely that traders could attempt to surpass that resistance threshold at $91.00.

The projected lean hog index for 1/24/2025 is up $0.02 at $81.94, and the actual index for 1/23/205 is up $0.01 at $81.92. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.12 with a weighted average price of $78.00, ranging from $77.00 to $79.00 on 471 head and a five-day rolling average of $80.53. Pork cutouts total 172.03 loads with 151.42 loads of pork cuts and 20.61 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.64, $93.33.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Mixed Futures Trade Expected to Begin Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures are a sight to behold with new all-time highs made last week. Packers held back most of the week in hopes that feedlots would need to sell cattle at even money as some early initial cash trade indicated. But the feedlots had none of it and were determined to hold cattle another week if they did not receive higher prices. Southern cattle traded up to $5.00 higher with Northern dressed cattle as much as $6.00 to $8.00 higher Friday. Cattle futures continue to defy gravity as cattle supplies remain tight and demand remains strong. The Cattle on Feed report was supportive to the market with on-feed numbers on Jan. 1 at 99% compared to the estimate of 99.8%. Placements were 97% compared to the estimate of 101.8% and marketings were 101% compared to the estimate of 101.3%. The report may be factored, in leaving futures mixed Monday as traders wait for further direction. The Commitments of Traders report showed the funds adding just 31 contracts to their net-long position in live cattle bringing their total to 149,756 contracts. The funds added 1,215 long futures contracts, bringing their net-long futures position to 27,983 contracts and the third week of a record-long position.

Hog futures traded on both sides of unchanged Friday, but eventually found the support needed to push the market higher into the close. This was somewhat of a feat as both cash and cutouts were lower. The National Dairy Direct Afternoon Hog report was $1.87 lower with cutouts down $0.08. Last week, cash traded higher on Monday, but packers are not expected to be as aggressive to begin this week. Technically, the futures might be developing a sideways trading pattern in the June through August contracts but also a potential head-and-shoulders bottom. However, it will take supportive cash and cutouts to turn the market higher. The Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders reducing their net-long futures positions by 7,622 contracts with their net-long position at 90,693.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	New contract highs and new all-time highs in cattle futures keep the upward momentum strong and traders bullish.	1)	Cattle futures are overbought and with another week of record-long feeder cattle futures, it is only a matter of time before a price correction will take place.
2)	Feedlots had a big win last week with higher cash. They will try to do the same this week as the fundamentals remain supportive.	2)	Boxed beef prices show signs of weakness as demand may become impacted as beef prices remain high.
3)	Hog futures are finding sufficient support from traders for the long term. They continue to buy the break with the anticipation that strong prices will unfold.	3)	Hogs have been unable to find consistent support from cash and cutouts. This will leave the upside limited.
4)	Hog slaughter remains strong to fulfill demand. This will keep supplies from backing up in the market.	4)	Some hog contracts may be developing a sideways trading pattern, leaving the market choppy in the near term.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Northern Cattle Trade $6.00 to $8.00 Higher, Live Cattle Trade $6.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a wild day for the cattle complex as fed cash cattle prices jumped $6.00 to $8.00 higher and the board echoed the cash market's excitement. March corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $10.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 140.82 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock contracts scored the following changes: February live cattle up $8.03, April live cattle up $5.53; January feeder cattle up $5.20, March feeder cattle up $8.52; February lean hogs up $1.18, April lean hogs down $0.13; March corn up $0.02, May corn up $0.04.

Friday's Cold Storage report shared that freezers were up 3% from the previous month but down 5% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 4% from the previous month but down 5% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were up 2% from the previous month but down 6% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 52% from last month but down 39% from last year.

LIVE CATTLE:

These prices are what history stories are made out of. We knew the market was likely to see some excitement this week as cash prices were assumed to trade steady in the worst-case scenario. To see the trader buy-in and support to this degree all while feedlot managers continue to push the cash cattle market higher week after week is what true price discovery feels like.

As soon as traders caught wind that fed cash cattle prices were trading $6.00 to $8.00 higher, the contracts jumped higher and maintained those gains through the day's end. February live cattle closed $3.67 higher at $204.77, April live cattle closed $2.30 higher at $203.02 and June live cattle closed $1.67 higher at $197.37 – which again are all new record-breaking contract highs for each of those months. A light movement of trade was noted in the North at $328 to $330 which is $6.00 to $8.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle were sold for mostly $210 which is $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average -- and both prices are yet again new all-time record-breaking achievements.

Packers are continuing to support the cash cattle market as they simply don't have enough supply built up around them. But moving forward, it remains critical to continue to monitor how they're committing the cattle because as soon as they have enough supply around them -- prices will weaken.

And last but certainly not least, Friday's Cattle on Feed report was another bullish feather that the market will tuck into its hat as on feed totals and placements were lighter, but marketings were higher than a year ago.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 111,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 10,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 2,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago. The week's total slaughter is estimated to be around 599,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago and 15,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.04 ($327.92) and select down $0.92 ($316.29) with a movement of 129 loads (93.87 loads of choice, 14.41 loads of select, 7.53 loads of trim and 12.84 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Until we see how many cattle packers were able to buy, it's a risky coin toss to call.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The market was well supported by traders and fundamental indicators alike. With the exciting developments in this week's fed cash cattle trade and the live cattle contracts rallying as they did, it was an easy option for traders to continue to push the feeder cattle contracts through Friday's close. March feeders closed $2.50 higher at $276.57, April feeders closed $3.00 higher at $275.45 and May feeders closed $2.92 higher at $273.40. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers and heifers traded steady to $4.00 higher. Steer calves traded steady to $3.00 higher and heifer calves sold steady to $3.00 higher except the 500- to 600-pound heifers traded $5.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold $3.00 to $7.00 higher and slaughter bulls traded $2.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 59%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/23/2025: up $0.73, $278.28.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex traded back and forth throughout the day but was able to luckily close higher ahead of Friday's end. February lean hogs closed $0.17 higher at $82.30, April lean hogs closed $1.00 higher at $88.20 and June lean hogs closed $0.80 higher at $101.47. However, with the robust developments transpiring in the cattle complex, the lean hog market successfully closed higher, but the market wasn't as lively. Hog prices closed $1.87 lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, with a weighted average of $80.38 on 1,240 head. Pork cutouts totaled 307.14 loads with 263.23 loads of pork cuts and 43.91 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.08, $91.69. Friday's slaughter is projected to be around 485,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 186,000 head. The CME lean hog index 1/22/2025: up $0.21, $81.93.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers rarely support the cash market on Mondays and that's likely to be the case again next week.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cash Cattle Prices Jump Another $6 to $8 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been a dynamic and fruitful Friday morning for the cattle complex as both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are rallying thanks to the aggressive surge in fed cash cattle prices. Southern live cattle are currently trading $6.00 higher and dressed cattle prices are trading as much as $6.00 to $8.00 higher. March corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $10.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 64.65 points

LIVE CATTLE:

If your coffee wasn't quite strong enough Friday morning, that's OK because the jolting rally that's taking place in the cattle complex is enough to wake anyone from a groggy state. Upon seeing dressed cattle begin to trade in the North for $6.00 to $8.00 higher, the nearby live cattle futures quickly ran anywhere from $2.00 to $3.00 higher and have maintained that momentum through morning trade. February live cattle are up $3.02 at $204.12, April live cattle are up $2.00 at $202.72, and June live cattle are up $1.45 at $197.15. Early this week, the market was hesitant to move too boldly; but by Wednesday, traders saw the writing on the wall that fed cattle prices were going to be at least steady, if not a little higher, and the bullish excitement once again ran rampant through the contracts. So far Friday morning, there's been some light trade in the North at $328 to $330, which is $6.00 to $8.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and live sales have been marked at $210, which is $6.00 higher than last week's weighted average. I think it's worthwhile to note that Thursday at Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, slaughter cows were trading $6.00 to $8.00 higher and slaughter bulls were selling $15.00 to $18.00 higher as packers continue to fight being short bought but are looking for alternative ways to build up some more inventory. Again, this week it will be crucial to see how many cattle packers get bought because until they're flush with supplies, it's going to be hard for packers to slow this cash cattle rally down. But, above all else, it would be remiss of me not to credit Friday's wild success to feedlot managers who are keenly aware of the market dynamics at play and continue to hold out for more money -- which is paying dividends. Well done folks! This is history unfolding before our eyes!

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.19 ($328.77) and select down $1.08 ($316.13) with a movement of 77 loads (57.01 loads of choice, 5.10 loads of select, 4.21 loads of trim and 10.88 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With fed cash cattle prices rallying $6.00 to $8.00 higher and corn prices dipping lower, it's been smooth sailing for the feeder cattle contracts Friday morning as support has been more than ample. March feeders are up $1.00 at $275.07, April feeders are up $1.47 at $273.92, and May feeders are up $1.62 at $272.10. And with the robust fundamental support that's poured into the complex Friday morning -- it's likely the moves in the fed cash cattle market outweigh whatever is noted in this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is mostly trading sideways into Friday's noon hour as the market has shifted to the backburner of the livestock complex as the cattle contracts are rallying robustly. February lean hogs are up $0.12 at $82.25, April lean hogs are down $0.05 at $87.15, and June lean hogs are down $0.12 at $100.55. Once again this morning, pork cutout values are showing modest support as the carcass is up by $0.25 -- and although that may not be by much, consistent stable support is.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 1/23/2025 is up $0.01 at $81.92, and the actual index for 1/22/2025 is up $0.21 at $81.93. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $78.12, ranging from $78.00 to $79.00 on 414 head and a five-day rolling average of $80.28. Pork cutouts total 180.27 loads with 151.18 loads of pork cuts and 29.09 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.25, $92.02.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle on Feed Report After the Close Today

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feedlots continue to hold out for higher cash and seem prepared to hold cattle until next week if they do not get what they want. Earlier this week, cash trade took place at steady money with last week. This indicated it would set the tone for the week. However, that does not seem to be the case. The feedlots have drawn a line in the sand, and they intend to make the packers cross that line and pay higher prices. In the meantime, futures continue to make new contract highs. Trades may pull back a bit Friday as they position themselves ahead of the Cattle on Feed report this afternoon. The average estimate for on-feed as of Jan. 1 is 99.8% of a year ago. Placements in December at 101.8% and marketed in December at 101.3%. Placements are expected to be the wild card with the range of estimates from 98.8% to 107.1%. Lower boxed beef prices may provide some pressure along with some profit-taking. Choice cuts declined $1.06 with select down $0.78.

Hog futures just could not get anything going with a mixed close. It was surprising to see cash higher again Thursday with the National Daily Direct Afternoon report up $0.99. The packers should be done for the week with lower cash expected Friday. Cutouts posted a nice gain of $1.60. The combination of higher cash and cutouts may provide support. Slaughter has been running below a year ago for the past two days, likely due to some plants having mechanical issues. This may be made up on Saturday with a higher slaughter number.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The trend remains up as traders continue to push cattle futures to new highs. Tight cattle supplies and good demand support the market.	1)	Cattle prices will not go up forever and will find a level at which liquidation will be triggered in the futures market.
2)	Feedlots are determined to get higher prices for cattle this week and are prepared to hold them over the next week if they do not receive it.	2)	Boxed beef has been choppy and mixed this week, indicating a threshold may have been reached.
3)	Cash hogs have increased each day this week with the packers aggressively looking for hogs. The numbers of market-ready hogs may be tightening.	3)	Packers may have finished buying hogs for the week, which may keep futures from moving higher ahead of the weekend.
4)	If hog futures build support at this level, traders might be more aggressive buyers for the long term.	4)	Hog futures may have limited upside as cutouts have remained choppy this week. Consistent support remains elusive.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Markets Continue to Inch Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts continued to rally through Thursday's end, but the lean hog contracts weren't as lucky. Still no sizeable sales have developed in the cash cattle market so Friday's market will be busy as not only will market participants need to be looking for sales to develop but they'll also be watching to see what the Cattle on Feed report does. March corn is up 5 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 408.34 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex again stepped up its game as the market continued to add position onto the already jaw-dropping gains that were made throughout Wednesday's market. Today's move seems to be driven by a number of different factors: traders' belief in the market's strong trajectory, trader's eagerness to continue to advance the complex amid the Dow Jones' rally which signs economic strength and stability and the belief that cash cattle prices will likely trade steady/somewhat higher again this week. February live cattle closed $1.05 higher at $201.10, April live cattle closed $0.95 higher at $200.72 and June live cattle closed $0.80 higher at $195.70. The market's resilient nature mixed with the gains made today have again pushed many of the nearby contracts to new contract high price points. But the unsettling factor about today's trade is the decline in boxed beef prices -- which needs to continue to be monitored as a loss of demand could circumvent the market's aspirations if it were to become a trend. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day as feedlot managers are happy to wait until the week's bitter end for packer interest to improve. Earlier this week there were some live sales marked at $201 to $202 which is $1.00 to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average, but not enough cattle were traded to say that an accurate trend has been established for the week. Asking prices are noted in the South at $203 plus and at $330 in the North. Do note that Friday afternoon the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.06 ($330.96) and select down $0.78 ($317.21) with a movement of 163 loads (87.97 loads of choice, 41.07 loads of select, 22.09 loads of trim and 11.73 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. Given that feedlot managers are simply in a position to roll over their showlists if prices aren't what they yearn for, it's likely that worst-case scenario prices will be steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the technical support of the live cattle complex's higher trend, mixed with the unwavering demand from buyers in the countryside – it was an easy decision for traders to push the feeder cattle contracts higher through Thursday's close. March feeders closed $1.00 higher at $274.07, April feeders closed $1.15 higher at $272.45 and May feeders closed $1.00 higher at $270.47. At the Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, compared to last week feeder steers weighing 500 to 800 pounds sold steady to $10.00 higher on a light test. There weren't enough heifers at auction to depict an accurate test. Slaughter cows sold $6.00 to $8.00 higher and slaughter bulls sold $15.00 to $18.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 77%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/22/2025: down $0.63, $277.55.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was slightly disappointing to watch as the market lost some of its momentum by the day's end. Some of the nearby contracts were able to keep a mildly higher position through closing time, but by and large, unsettled tones dominated the nearby contracts, and weaker tones dominated the deferred contracts. February lean hogs closed $0.65 higher a $82.15, April lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $87.20 and June lean hogs closed steady at $100.67. But it was encouraging to see continued pork demand show up in the marketplace as the carcass price closed $1.60 higher -- as the only cut to post a day-over-day decline was the picnic which closed just $0.45 lower. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.99 with a weighted average price of $82.25 on 3,430 head. Pork cutouts totaled 293.47 loads with 268.15 loads of pork cuts and 25.32 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.60, $91.77. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 472,000 head -- 10,000 head less than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/21/2025: up $0.26, $81.72.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, it's most likely that the bulk of this week's cash hog trade is done with.