Friday Closing LIvestock Market Update - The Scales Tip and Contracts Close Sharply Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a painful day for the entire livestock complex as all three of the markets closed lower Friday. Some more cash cattle trade developed in the South at $197, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. May corn is down 11 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $0.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 492.33 points.

From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: February live cattle down $0.10, April live cattle down $1.30; March feeder cattle up $7.03, April feeder cattle up $5.45; April lean hogs down $4.00, June lean hogs down $5.60; March corn down $0.38, May corn down $0.36.

LIVE CATTLE:

Friday didn't pan out the way cattlemen had hoped. Traders have already been on edge as they held the spot April live cattle contract mostly steady throughout the week between the market's 40-day and 100-day moving averages, showing that they weren't certain which way the market was going to tip. But upon seeing cash cattle trade another $2.00 lower this week -- the scale tipped and traders let the market slip lower. Unfortunately, this bearish news likely means next week's market will be subject to more pressure. This opens the door for the obvious question : How much lower is the market going to trade now? The market's next support threshold is at $188.00. April live cattle closed $3.47 lower at $192.65, June live cattle closed $3.55 lower at $188.77, and August live cattle closed $3.15 lower at $187.92. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded at $197, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at $313, which is also $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. It's likely the market could remain under pressure until seasonal boxed beef demand improves and packers have to pull more cattle out of the cash cattle market. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 107,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 6,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 2,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 566,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 28,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.65 ($311.83) and select down $0.08 ($302.05) with a movement of 101 loads (71.22 loads of choice, 10.52 loads of select, 10.81 loads of trim and 8.88 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Until boxed beef prices strengthen, packers will likely continue to push the cash cattle market lower.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Unfortunately, not even the feeder cattle complex could maintain its higher position through Friday's close as the live cattle market's pressure grew too burdensome to look beyond. Earlier in the day, the nearby feeder cattle contracts were trading higher; but shortly after the noon hour the market's pressure sent those contracts lower as well. March feeders closed $1.47 lower at $274.97, April feeders closed $2.55 lower at $273.00, and May feeders closed $2.85 lower at $271.12. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to the last full test two weeks ago, feeder steers traded $2.00 to $8.00 higher and feeder heifers traded $3.00 to $6.00 higher. Stock cattle and calves sold $10.00 to $25.00 higher. Demand continues to be extremely strong for cattle suitable for grass. Slaughter cows sold $4.00 to $10.00 higher and slaughter bulls traded $3.00 to $4.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 73%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 2/27/2025: up $1.42, $281.06.

LEAN HOGS:

There's no a kind way to put it -- Friday's market was another blow to the lean hog complex as the market anxiously waits to see what's going to develop next week in terms of tariffs. The lean hog market is especially worried about what's going to happen to its ability to export pork into Mexico if trade relationships become contentious. April lean hogs closed $0.70 lower at $83.67, June lean hogs closed $2.57 lower at $95.02, and July lean hogs closed $2.72 lower at $96.75. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.53 with a weighted average price of $90.02 on 4,142 head. Pork cutouts totaled 228.87 loads with 203.85 loads of pork cuts and 25.03 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.30, $100.96. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head -- 13,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 100,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index 2/26/2025: down $0.10, $89.39.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers rarely dive aggressively into the cash hog market on Mondays.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cautiousness From Traders Sets In

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's another mixed day for the livestock complex as traders are unsure of what's to come next week, with tariffs expected to go into play. A few more deals have been noted in the South for the cash cattle market, where cattle are trading for $197, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. May corn is down 8 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 173.48 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Unfortunately, the live cattle complex has taken a lower approach to Friday's market as the cash cattle market hasn't lent the support it was hoped to. There's some light trade that has been reported in the South at $197, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Although no new trade has developed in the North, on Thursday Northern dressed cattle sold for $313, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average as well. Asking prices for cattle left on showlists remain firm at $199 to $200 in the South and $315 in the North. Between the boxed beef market's mixed tone and the lower trend in cash prices, traders feel let down by the market's fundamentals that has created the downturn in the futures complex. April live cattle are down $2.10 at $194.02, June live cattle are down $1.97 at $190.35 and August live cattle are down $1.70 at $189.37.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.64 ($311.82) and select down $0.07 ($302.06) with a movement of 69 loads (48.37 loads of choice, 5.34 loads of select, 8.62 loads of trim and 7.08 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Although the live cattle contracts have fully elected to trade lower, the feeder cattle complex is split with the market's nearby contracts able to remain higher while the deferred months trade lower. Between the moisture the countryside received just last week combined with the continued support of excellent feeder cattle demand in the countryside, traders remain willing to continue to support the nearby contracts, while the rest of the market dips lower ahead of the weekend. At this point, it's a coin toss guess as to whether or not the nearby feeder cattle contracts will be able to remain higher through today's close or if traders will adapt to the rest of the market's trend. March feeders are up $1.42 at $277.87, April feeders are up $0.70 at $276.25 and May feeders are up $0.40 at $274.37.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market's uncertainty has crept into Friday's market following Thursday's sharp decline. April lean hogs are up $0.15 at $84.52, June lean hogs are down $0.27 at $97.32 and July lean hogs are down $0.40 at $99.07. But with morning pork cutout values not lending any support with a carcass decrease of $1.94 and tariff tribulation expected to hit next week, the market continues to hold its breath waiting for next week to come.

The projected lean hog index for 2/27/2025 is up $0.05 at $89.44, and the actual index for 2/26/2025 is down $0.10 at $89.39. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.02 with a weighted average price of $90.21, ranging from $84.00 to $93.00 on 3,877 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.13. Pork cutouts total 230.55 loads with 217.75 loads of pork cuts and 12.81 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.94, $99.02.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Could Go Either Way

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures regained the losses of Wednesday and then someone Thursday as contracts were pulled up by the strength in feeder cattle. Feeder cattle futures have been leading the complex and are within striking distance of retesting the highs. Cattle futures may have some headwinds Friday and lower cash trade and lower boxed beef prices on Thursday may increase trader caution ahead of the weekend. Limited cash trade took place on Thursday in the North at $2.00 lower than last week. That may set the stage for weakness in the South on Friday as business is done. The weakness of boxed beef does not indicate that beef demand is improving. Choice cuts were down $1.72 and select cuts were down $1.11. Weekly export sales were not as good as hoped with sales down 15% from last week. The inability of boxed beef to increase may limit cash potential.

Hogs plummeted with nearby contracts showing the greatest pressure. There was no specific fundamental reason for the pressure, leaving much of the selling technical. Futures moved below support, likely triggering stops, which increased the selling and triggered more stops. The National Direct Afternoon report showed cash down $0.37 but not enough to turn the market bearish. Pork cutouts increased $4.30, supported by bellies jumping $26.64. Weekly export sales were good at 32,200 metric tons (mt), up 26% from the previous week. But none of this supported the market Thursday. June hogs closed at the lowest level since Nov. 15, 2024, with July falling to the lowest level since Jan. 8. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 99,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The strength of feeder cattle is providing the support for live cattle. Feeder cattle are in demand and continue to trade at higher prices.	1)	Light cash trade in the north took place at $2.00 lower than last week. That may set the stage for the rest of trading this week.
2)	Feedlots may hold for at least steady prices, and if they do not receive them, they may hold cattle over until next week.	2)	Boxed beef prices have been slipping the past few days, indicating demand may not be improving as much as expected.
3)	Hog futures were under technical selling pressure. Traders may buy back their recent short positions ahead of the weekend.	3)	Hog futures broke below support and may see follow-through selling to begin the day. Prices might test the next level of support.
4)	Hog slaughter remains strong, keeping pork moving to the market. Hog supplies are current with weights declining.	4)	The packers may have most of the needs purchased for the week, resulting in lower cash Friday.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Closed Higher While Hogs Plummeted Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Thursday was a mixed market for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts traded higher, but the hog sector traded sharply lower. Some light trade was reported in the North at $313, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. May corn is down 12 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 193.62 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 18,200 mt for 2025 were down 15% from the previous week but up 4% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (8,600 mt), Japan (2,500 mt) and China (1,800 mt). Pork net sales of 32,200 mt for 2025 were up 26% from the previous week but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (13,300 mt), Japan (3,500 mt) and China (2,800 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was able to successfully round out the day higher as the market was well supported by traders. The futures complex is still not without a slight bit of bearishness lingering overhead as the market continues to trade in between the market's 40-day and 100-day moving averages. And until cattlemen can see that traders have fully committed to moving the market above its 40-day moving average, some nervousness remains. Nevertheless, traders participated in the market modestly throughout the day, which helped keep prices elevated. April live cattle closed $1.50 higher at $196.12, June live cattle closed $1.05 higher at $192.32 and August live cattle closed $0.80 higher at $191.07. Throughout the day some light trade was reported in Nebraska at $313, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Bids were offered throughout the day in Texas at $196, but with asking prices firm at $200 to $201 packers and feedlot managers remained at odds. More trade will need to develop on Friday. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.72 ($311.18) and select down $1.11 ($302.13) with a movement of 163 loads (112.19 loads of choice, 19.89 loads of select, 12.07 loads of trim and 18.50 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY's CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that some early sales have been marked lower than last week's weighted average, the market's best hope for trade this week is likely at steady money.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex maintained its higher trend through Thursday's close as traders continued to support the live cattle complex diligently. With the market's stealthy $2.00 advancement in most of its contacts, the spot March contract is now within $5.00 from the contract's high reached in late January. March feeders closed $2.07 higher at $276.45, April feeders closed $2.02 higher at $275.55 and May feeders closed $2.15 higher at $273.97. At Hub City Livestock Auction in Aberdeen, South Dakota, compared to last week, the best test on steers was of those weighing 700 to 749 pounds, which traded $7.00 to $12.00 higher, and those weighing 750 to 799 pounds and 900 to 999 pounds, which both traded steady. The best test on heifers was of those weighing 650 to 699 pounds, which traded mostly steady, but those weighing between 750 to 799 pounds traded $4.00 to $5.00 higher. The change from cold wintery weather to nice sunny days brought a plethora of cattle to the sale as over 7,000 head were offered in today's auction. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 92%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/26/2025: up $0.91, $279.64.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex seemed to adopt the Chicken Little "the sky is falling" mentality throughout the day which led to its stark $2.00 to $3.00 decline. The mass pandemonium stemmed from the announcement that tariffs would indeed be imposed on Mexico and Canada as early as next week. This realization startled the market as traders and pork producers alike are concerned about the opportunity of being able to export pork into our neighboring countries if this does indeed happen. April lean hogs closed $3.92 lower at $84.37, June lean hogs closed $3.27 lower at $97.60 and July lean hogs closed $2.90 lower at $99.47. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.37 with a weighted average price of $89.49 on 2,116 head. Pork cutouts totaled 228.87 loads with 203.85 loads of pork cuts and 25.03 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.30, $100.96. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head -- 16,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/25/2025: up $0.02, $89.49.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, packers have likely completed the vast majority of their buying for the week.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Markets Remain Hopeful that Cash Prices Could Trade Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed as the cattle complex is inching higher, hopeful that prices will be steady to somewhat higher when the cash cattle market trades. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex is plundering lower as traders react frantically to the news that a 25% tariff is expected to go into place as early as next week. May corn is down 11 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $0.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 303.97 points

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 18,200 mt for 2025 were down 15% from the previous week but up 4% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (8,600 mt), Japan (2,500 mt) and China (1,800 mt). Pork net sales of 32,200 mt for 2025 were up 26% from the previous week but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (13,300 mt), Japan (3,500 mt) and China (2,800 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is again trading higher as the market seems encouraged by the morning's export sales report -- by the higher note of boxed beef prices and the potential that the cash cattle market could potentially trade steady to somewhat higher this week. The futures complex is in a critical position, hovering between both the market's 40-day moving average and the market's 100-day moving average, seeming to almost clearly say, "either market direction is possible, it's just going to depend on what surfaces fundamentally." Until the cash cattle market trades, we continue to watch earnestly. April live cattle are up $1.60 at $196.20, June live cattle are up $1.07 at $192.32 and August live cattle are up $0.82 at $191.10. A single bid is currently on the table in Texas at $196, but no sales have been reported today and with asking prices firm at $200 to $201 -- it's likely that packers are going to need to get more aggressive before we will see any cattle trade.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.30 ($313.20) and select up $0.59 ($303.83) with a movement of 79 loads (46.29 loads of choice, 12.41 loads of select, 5.28 loads of trim and 15.40 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

And once again, the feeder cattle market is leaping higher into Thursday's noon hour, eager to see its contracts advanced. March feeders are up $2.35 at $276.72, April feeders are up $2.22 at $275.75 and May feeders are up $2.72 at $274.10. At this point, the market will likely keep its upward momentum through the day's close as its $1.00 to $2.00 advancement seems strong and well supported fundamentally by the market's feeder cattle demand in the countryside.

LEAN HOGS:

The political pressure of tariffs that are set to be enforced as early as next week is weighing heavily on the lean hog complex as US hog producers rely heavily on their ability to export pork to Mexico -- specifically. And even though morning pork cutout values are higher here domestically today, the bearish news of how tariffs could affect current trade relationships is weighing heavily on the hog complex. The spot April contract has broken below the market's resistance at $86.00 -- a support plane that was established early in January. April lean hogs are down $3.75 at $84.55, June lean hogs are down $3.02 at $97.85 and July lean hogs are down $2.75 at $99.62.

The projected lean hog index is $0.10 lower at $89.39, and the actual index for 2/25/2025 is up $0.02 at $89.49. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.01 with a weighted average price of $90.23, ranging from $86.00 to $92.00 on 1,090 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.12. Pork cutouts total 116.65 loads, with 101.97 loads of pork cuts and 14.68 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.18, $96.84.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures May See Further Gains

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures had adjusted to the numbers on the Cattle on Feed report with further movement influenced by what the cash market will do. The packers have not been interested this week with limited bids posted. That should change Thursday as business should surface. Feedlots seem less interested in selling at lower cash, having moved the cattle they needed to over the past few weeks. They may again hold cattle over if they do not receive at least steady money. Boxed beef prices were lower Wednesday with choice down $1.42 and select down $0.89. Feeder cattle futures showed limited weakness but maintained the substantial price spread to live cattle. Potential tariffs on Mexico and Canada have been delayed to April 2.

Hog futures rebounded, posting triple-digit gains. The liquidation pressure subsided with the market correcting from being overdone to the downside. Cutout prices will influence further price direction. Pork cutouts gained $1.01 with bellies posting a gain of $10.30. Packers should be aggressive Thursday as they need to purchase hogs to procure the volume needed for the week. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.02 with a weighted average price of $89.86. Weekly hog weights declined to 288.1 pounds, but remain higher than a year ago.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures should find support if cash trades steady this week. Traders may become confident the liquidation is over.	1)	Cash cattle have yet to trade this week and steady cash may limit the upside price potential.
2)	Cattle supplies remain tight and that will not change anytime soon. Feeder cattle are in demand and continue to command higher prices.	2)	Packers are receiving sufficient cattle supplies to meet their slaughter needs. This may leave them less aggressive this week and they may not pay higher prices than last week.
3)	Hog prices may have declined sufficiently to stimulate demand. Traders may step into the market aggressively now that the liquidation is finished.	3)	Weekly hog weights remain 0.4 pound higher than a year ago, leaving more pork available for the market.
4)	Weekly hog weights declined by 1.5 pounds to an average of 288.1 pounds.	4)	Hog futures may chop around in a sideways range with traders potentially interested in scalping the market rather than taking a long-term position.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Wait to See What Cash Cattle Prices Will Do

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts hit the pause button on their rally, but the lean hog complex finally found some technical footing in the marketplace. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day. May corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and May soybean meal is down $0.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 188.04 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex had a mostly uneventful day as traders drug their feet throughout the day seeming to wait to see what's going to develop in this week's cash cattle market. Not helping traders keep their upward momentum was the fact that boxed beef prices did dip slightly lower -- but throughout the week prices have traded mostly higher. April live cattle closed $1.10 lower at $194.62, June live cattle closed $0.97 lower at $191.27 and August live cattle closed $0.80 lower at $190.27. A single bid of $196 was offered throughout the afternoon in the Southern plains, but no cattle traded as asking prices in the South are firm at $200 to $201. Still no asking prices have been established for the North, but feedlot managers are expected to price their cattle higher this week. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- 5,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.42 ($312.90) and select down $0.89 ($303.24) with a movement of 158 loads (110.58 loads of choice, 19.76 loads of select, 6.14 loads of trim and 21.50 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that feedlot managers are eager to again trade cattle higher, I think steady prices may be attainable this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Try as it might, the feeder cattle complex wasn't able to maintain its higher trend in its spot March contract by Wednesday's close. But today's slight pullback from traders doesn't seem to be anything other than some technical cautiousness as traders are hopeful that the fed cash cattle market will lend support. Thankfully, buyer demand in the countryside remains strong and feeder cattle prices are again trending higher in sale barns. March feeders closed $0.15 higher at $274.37, April feeders closed $0.27 lower at $273.52 and May feeders closed $0.50 lower at $271.82. At Winter Livestock Auction in La Junta, Colorado compared to last week feeder steers sold $5.00 to $8.00 higher, and feeder heifers traded mostly $2.00 to $3.00 higher. Boner cows sold $1.00 lower and lean hogs closed $1.00 higher. Slaughter bulls traded $3.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 52%. The CME feeder cattle index: down $0.71, $278.73.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex finally regained its footing and was able to make Wednesday's close a fruitful endeavor as most of the nearby contracts closed well over $1.00 higher. April lean hogs closed $1.72 higher at $88.30, June lean hogs closed $1.77 higher at $100.87 and July lean hogs closed $1.82 higher at $102.37. Continuing to help matters was the fact that afternoon pork cutout values did indeed close higher -- and although the carcass price was highly encouraged by the belly's $10.30 jump, a higher close is a higher close. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.02 with a weighted average price of $89.86 on 4,962 head. Pork cutouts totaled 244.65 loads with 216.09 loads of pork cuts and 28.56 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.01, $96.66. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/24/2025: down $0.21, $89.47.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. At this point, packers have likely fulfilled the bulk of their needs for the week and prices could trend lower.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Traders Pull Back From Fully Support the Cattle Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed as traders have hit the pause button on full-heartedly supporting the cattle contracts until they see what develops this week in the cash market. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but packers' interest could pick up at any moment. May corn is down 1 cent per bushel and May soybean meal is down $1.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 20.57 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Traders have seemed to press the pause button on the market's rally as they're wanting to see what pans out fundamentally this week. Boxed beef demand has improved, and prices have trended mostly higher this week -- but while there is the belief that cash prices could trade steady/somewhat higher this week, you can't count your eggs before they hatch. Traders seem keenly aware of this right now. April live cattle are down $0.67 at $195.05, June live cattle are down $0.06 at $191.60 and August live cattle are down $0.50 at $190.57. Asking prices are noted in the South at $200 to $201, but are still not established in the North. No bids are currently on the table, but packer demand could improve at any point.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.18 ($314.50) and select down $0.37 ($303.76) with a movement of 75 loads (47.09 loads of choice, 12.05 loads of select, 4.60 loads of trim and 11.01 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The live cattle complex may be pulling up the reins on its market. As the market heads towards Wednesday's noon hour, the nearby contracts are keeping their momentum. March feeders are up $0.37 at $274.60, April feeders are up $0.15 at $273.90 and May feeders are down $0.12 at $272.20. The deferred contracts have just recently followed the live cattle market's trend of trading lower, but that's not ailing the nearby contracts. Traders will likely watch any developments in the cash market and monitor feeder cattle buyer demand this afternoon.

LEAN HOGS:

Following immense down-pressure, the lean hog complex has again seemed to find some support as the contracts are trading higher. April lean hogs are up $1.12 at $87.70, Juen lean hogs are up $1.12 at $100.22 and July lean hogs are up $1.07 at $101.62. Pork cutout values are higher too, which is lending support, but that's not a stable facet that traders are going to hone in on just yet as prices have been finicky.

The projected lean hog index for 2/25/2025 is up $0.02 at $89.49, and the actual index for 2/24/2025 is down $0.21 at $89.47. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $90.24, ranging from $85.00 to $93.0 on 3,536 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.04. Pork cutouts total 121.98 loads with 105.68 loads of pork cuts and 16.30 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.74, $97.39.

Wednesday Morning LIvestock Market Update - Hog Futures May Find Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feeder cattle again led the complex higher with triple-digit gains. Feeder cattle futures have gained much of what has been lost since late January. Live cattle have broken the downtrend which may give traders more confidence to buy into the market. Higher boxed beef prices may provide an incentive for feedlots to hold out for at least steady cash this week. Choice boxed beef was up $0.59 with select up $0.16. Feeder cattle futures continue to outpace live cattle, widening the spread. This should pull live cattle higher to narrow the gap. Feeder cattle and calves are in strong demand in the countryside and will continue to support the market.

Hog futures are struggling with losses again. The May and June contracts closed below technical support while the other contracts held support. That may generate buying interest from traders. However, there also needs to be support from cutouts and cash. Pork cutouts declined $2.78 on Tuesday with bellies down $5.02 and loins down $4.69. The only category showing a gain was ribs. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.24. Packers should remain aggressive Wednesday to procure more hogs. However, they may not be very aggressive as struggling cutout prices indicate weaker demand.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Feeder cattle futures have regained much of what was lost over the past month while the trend in live cattle may have turned higher.	1)	It is uncertain whether feedlots will need to move more cattle this week. That could result in steady to lower cash.
2)	Feedlots may be more confident holding for steady to higher cash now that futures and boxed beef prices seem to have found support.	2)	Boxed beef prices have been higher recently but it is not certain the strength will hold. High beef prices may have impacted demand.
3)	The April, July, and later hog contracts held support. That could generate technical buying interest due to the magnitude of the recent decline.	3)	The May and June hog contracts closed below support Tuesday. If futures are unable to find support Wednesday, it could trigger further liquidation.
4)	Hog futures have chart gaps that were left last week. Gaps are generally filled before contracts go off the board.	4)	Pork cutouts have been struggling, indicating demand has slowed or supplies have increased. Lower cutouts may limit the upside price potential for hogs.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feeders Continue to Push the Cattle Complex Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was another positive day for the cattle complex as both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts closed higher. It would appear as though the market is indeed committing to trading higher following the low established last week. No cash cattle trade has developed yet, but packer interest could improve on Wednesday. May corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $2.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 159.95 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was another sound, successful day for the live cattle complex as traders are beginning to fully believe in the idea that the market is going to change its tune and turn from its recent lower trend to a higher one. April live cattle closed $0.62 higher at $195.72, June live cattle closed $0.85 higher at $192.25 and August live cattle closed $0.85 higher at $191.07. Every day when the market inches further and further away from its 100-day moving average is a good day in producer's minds, as it was painful having to look at how close the market was to potentially dipping below that threshold and what bearish implications that would have had for the marketplace. Nevertheless, traders are slowly adding a bottom to the market's trend and once again inching higher. And with the uptick in boxed beef prices, there's even hope that the cash cattle market could potentially trade steady if not a little higher this week, as last week's movement was thin. Asking prices are noted in the South at $200 plus but are still not established in the North. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- 4,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.59 ($314.32) and select up $0.16 ($304.13) with a movement of 144 loads (94.87 loads of choice, 21.76 loads of select, 15.84 loads of trim and 11.74 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. With boxed beef prices lending some positive support to the greater marketplace, there's a chance that cash prices could at least trade steady this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is the driving force behind the cattle market's recent direction change as it again today boasts an additional $1.00 to $2.00 higher, close behind yesterday's $3.00 to $4.00 advancement. But the recent moisture which parts of the North and Central plains have received mixed with the excellent demand in the countryside, traders have more than enough support to justify the daily gains that they're pushing. March feeders closed $1.92 higher at $274.22, April feeders closed $1.77 higher at $273.80 and May feeders closed $1.97 higher at $272.32. At Joplin Regional Stockyard in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers traded $8.00 to $25.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 66%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/24/2025: up $0.07, $279.44.

LEAN HOGS:

It was another painstaking day for the lean hog complex as the market yet again fell lower. What's concerning from a technical standpoint is that the spot April contract is nearing the support plane around $86.00, which remains a critical threshold for the marketplace. If the market happens to break below that threshold, then it's tough to say where the next bottom could be if domestic demand continues to lag behind. April lean hogs closed $0.82 lower at $86.57, June lean hogs closed $0.82 lower at $99.10 and July lean hogs closed $0.85 lower at $100.55. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.24 with a weighted average price of $88.84 on 4,315 head. Pork cutouts are unavailable because of packer submission issues. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head -- 11,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/21/2025: down $0.85, $89.68.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers were slightly more aggressive in Tuesday's cash market, but it's likely that they'll still need more hogs and procure them on Wednesday.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Continue to Climb Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's another promising day for the cattle complex as both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets are able to again trade higher. Still no developments have surfaced in the cash market, but asking prices are now noted in the South at $200 plus. May corn is down 5 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $1.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 47.75 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is continuing to trade higher and with boxed beef prices higher as well -- a sense of bullishness is again taking hold of the market. February live cattle are up $0.90 at $199.80, April live cattle are up $0.87 at $195.97 and June live cattle are up $1.15 at $192.55. The spot April contract is still tanking below its 40-day moving average, but thankfully every day that the market continues to trade higher, it's not only getting closer to that pivotal threshold in which bulls hope that the market reconquers quickly. Also, every day the market trades higher, it's distancing itself from the 100-day moving average. No developments have surfaced in the cash cattle market. Asking prices are noted at $200 plus in the South, but are still not established in the North.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.99 ($315.72) and select up $2.20 ($306.17) with a movement of 70 loads (39.07 loads of choice, 10.47 loads of select, 12.17 loads of trim and 8.49 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is continuing to trade higher, advancing by leaps and bounds as the market is trading an additional $2.00 higher Tuesday on top of Monday's $3.00 to $4.00 higher close. Friday's supportive Cattle on Feed report has undoubtedly helped the market regain the support of traders, but even though the complex was challenged this past month, the underpinning of the marketplace remained bullish at heart. March feeders are up $2.72 at $275.02, April feeders are up $2.60 at $274.62 and May feeders are up $2.60 at $272.95.

LEAN HOGS:

The technical downturn is continuing to pressure the lean hog complex as the market is again trading lower Tuesday. And with morning cutout values lower and the cash market not lending any support -- traders have little hope of trading the market higher Tuesday. April lean hogs are down $0.52 at $86.90, June lean hogs are down $0.75 at $99.15 and July lean hogs are down $0.72 at $100.67. The loin's $4.00 decline mixed with the belly's $2.97 drop is the biggest reason why the carcass price is lower Tuesday morning.

The project lean hog index for 2/24/2025 is down $0.21 at $89.47, and the actual index for 2/21/2025 is down $0.85 at $89.68. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 1,116 head have traded this morning and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $91.69. Pork cutouts total 175.03 loads with 151.59 loads of pork cuts and 23.44 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.85, $96.58.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Should See Follow-Through Strength

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders decided the market was overdone to the downside with the Cattle on Feed report providing a catalyst for buying Monday. Feeder cattle futures showed greater interest as nearby contracts gained over $4.00. The placements on the report were below the average trade estimate, providing buying support. Feeder cattle have been in a better technical position than live cattle, leading the complex higher. Boxed beef prices were higher Monday with choice up $2.96 and select up $1.41. This may be short-lived but should provide further support Tuesday. It is uncertain what cash will do this week but further weakness is possible as feedlots may need to move more cattle rather than have them gain weight. Packers continue to hold the line on slaughter, which has been to their advantage recently.

Hog futures could not find solid footing Monday, except for the December and later contracts. Traders were not ready to buy back into the market after the liquidation that took place last week. Traders need confirmation of stronger demand before they feel confident enough to step back in. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $1.48. A weaker cash price was expected to begin the week, but packers may be more aggressive Tuesday. Pork cutouts gained $1.36 and could provide support to the market. Futures may rebound in time to regain much of what was lost and close the chart gaps left last week.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report may have been enough to stem the selling tide as the market may have been overdone to the downside.	1)	Feedlots may need to move more cattle this week and may sell at lower prices rather than wait and receive no benefit from holding back.
2)	Feedlots may not be quite as aggressive sellers this week as they may have moved most of the cattle they needed to over the past three weeks. This may stabilize cash.	2)	The strength of boxed beef may be short-lived as consumers may still shy away from high beef prices. Food costs continue to rise.
3)	Hog futures may be overdone to the downside with futures nearing support. A further rebound in cutouts could trigger buying interest.	3)	Traders may be cautious about buying into hog futures unless they see consistent evidence of continued strong demand. That has been lacking recently.
4)	The April through July hog contracts have a chart gap above the market from last week. Chart gaps are generally filled.	4)	Hog futures need to find support soon or further liquidation is possible as funds may reduce their net-long positions. Support needs to hold or stops could be triggered.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Find Some Technical Support Following Friday's Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex was able to trade higher throughout Monday's market as traders were relieved to see some support stem from Friday's Cattle on Feed report. New showlists appear to be lower in all major feeding states. March corn is down 8 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 96.52 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a strong day for the live cattle complex as traders opted to find support in Friday's Cattle on Feed report and use that positive note to help push the contracts higher through Monday's trade. April live cattle closed $1.15 higher at $195.10, June live cattle closed $1.07 higher at $191.40 and August live cattle closed $1.25 higher at $190.22. It would be putting the cart before the horse to say that a bottom has been found for the market's current move and that traders will now actively work to advance the market -- but if good effort on their behalf is shown this week -- then maybe, just maybe, the market may think of changing its trend from lower to higher once again. New showlists appear to be lower in all major feeding states. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 95,000 head -- steady with last week but 26,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week, Southern live cattle traded at mostly $199, which is $4.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $315, which is $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 48,723 head. Of that, 89% (43,418 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 11% (5,305 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.96 ($313.73) and select up $1.41 ($303.97) with a movement of 85 loads (46.45 loads of choice, 15.61 loads of select, 9.18 loads of trim and 13.29 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Although packers committed the majority of last week's purchase to the nearby delivery, they still didn't buy very many cattle. And if they intend to keep enough supply around them moving forward, they're likely going to need to secure more inventory.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Monday was a prosperous day for the feeder cattle complex as the market jumped $3.00 to $4.00 higher by the day's close -- seeming to mostly be encouraged by last Friday's Cattle on Feed report. But I also believe that traders are again willing to look at the buyer demand in the countryside and pay it its respect as even though over the last month the market's technical have suffered, all in all, buyer demand has remained incredibly strong and with every day that the market gets closer to green grass, feeder cattle and calves are only likely to get more expensive. March feeders closed $4.35 higher at $282.30, April feeders closed $4.47 higher at $272.02 and May feeders closed $4.42 higher at $270.35. It was both relieving and encouraging to see the spot March contract again conquer its 40-day moving average, which has remained a critical price point for the futures complex. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week and at their mid-session point, feeder steers were trading steady to $3.00 higher and feeder heifers were trading steady to $2.00 higher. Steer calves were selling $3.00 to $8.00 higher, with stocker calves trading up to $10.00 to $15.00 higher. Stocker heifers were selling $10.00 to $20.00 higher. There was a stronger undertone for cattle that were suitable for grass. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 54%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/21/2025: up $0.53, $279.37.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex couldn't shake the heavy weight that overcame its market last week as most of its nearby contracts continued to trade lower but some of the deferred contracts did close slightly higher. April lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $87.40, June lean hogs closed $0.70 lower at $99.92 and July lean hogs closed $0.55 lower at $101.40. Again, this afternoon, it was comforting to see that pork cutout values closed higher and that besides the rib and the ham, every other cut closed higher. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.48 with a weighted average price of $88.60 on 730 head. Pork cutouts totaled 245.74 loads, with 212.56 loads of pork cuts and 33.18 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.36, $98.43. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head -- steady with last week but 2,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/20/2025: up $0.69, $90.53.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Given that packers hardly participated in Monday's market, they'll likely be more aggressive on Tuesday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle on Feed Report Helps Turn the Cattle Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are trading higher into Monday's noon hour as traders' applause Friday's slightly bullish Cattle on Feed Report. The feeder cattle market is trading higher with boldness as its contracts are all well above $3.00 higher. March corn is down 8 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 191.02 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

I hate to put the cart before the horse, but it's seeming as if Friday's Cattle on Feed report could be giving the live cattle complex some much needed support, which is thankfully allowing all the live cattle contracts to trade higher into Monday's noon hour. It's entirely too early to say whether or not the market will shift its trend from lower to higher, but the day's upward movement is a nice trend either way. April live cattle are up $1.00 at $194.92, June live cattle are up $0.90 at $191.20 and August live cattle are up $1.02 at $190.00. New showlists appear to be lower in all major feeding states.

Last week, Southern live cattle traded at mostly $199, which is $4.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $315, which is $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 48,723 head. Of that, 89% (43,418 head) were committed to the nearby delivery while the remaining 11% (5,305 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.97 ($313.74) and select up $1.07 ($303.63) with a movement of 35 loads (16.61 loads of choice, 5.69 loads of select, 5.50 loads of trim and 6.79 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex hasn't sat around waiting idly to see what the live cattle market is going to do with Friday's Cattle on Feed report -- as it's trading well above $3.00 higher in all the contracts. March feeders are up $3.20 at $271.10, April feeders are up $3.22 at $270.77 and May feeders are up $3.27 at $269.20. More than anything, it's relieving and encouraging to see the spot March contract trading back above the market's 40-day moving average.

LEAN HOGS:

Although morning pork cutout values are higher, the lean hog complex isn't willing to shake last week's tumultuous downturn just yet and fully change its direction. The spot April contract is trading higher, but otherwise the deferred months are trending lower as the market wants to see continued consumer demand. What's potentially most exciting about the uptick in pork cutout values Monday morning is that the big jump isn't stemming from just one of the major cuts; rather, most of the major cuts are higher this morning. April lean hogs are up $0.02 at $87.70, June lean hogs down $0.25 at $100.37 and July lean hogs are down $0.10 at $101.85.

The projected lean hog index for 2/21/2025 is down $0.85 at $89.68, and the actual index for 2/20/2025 is down $0.69 at $90.53. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.29 with a weighted average price of $88.96, ranging from $87.00 to $90.00 on 663 head and a five-day rolling average of $91.69. Pork cutouts total 157.62 loads with 141.72 loads of pork cuts and 15.91 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.84, $98.91.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures May Open Higher in Reaction to COF Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

There was limited price movement in cattle futures Friday ahead of the Cattle on Feed report. The trade had already adjusted to the lower cash, leaving traders positioning themselves ahead of the report. Cash cattle traded $4.00 lower in the South and $5.00 lower in the North. The Cattle on Feed report was neutral to slightly bullish and could provide some support to the market Monday. However, much of it may be factored in already, leaving most of the market direction to boxed beef prices and the expectation for cash trade. Boxed beef was lower Friday, which may limit upside potential. Choice was down $1.86 with select down $0.62. The continued weakness may set the stage for lower cash cattle this week. Feedlots have lost their bargaining power and are selling rather than holding over and potentially receiving yet lower prices. The Commitments of Traders report showed funds reducing their long position in live cattle by 8,766 contracts to a net-long of 127,603. They added 1,501 long futures positions to feeder cattle, bringing their net-long to 28,657 contracts.

Nearby hog contracts closed under pressure with weekly export sales not as good as hoped and the negative cutout prices of the week weighing on the market. However, cutouts rebounded nicely Friday, posting a gain of $3.04. This may turn the tide to begin the week. Futurse may have finished the substantial correcting with the potential for traders to buy back into the market. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.64 as buyers remained active. The combination of higher cutouts and stronger cash Friday should provide support to begin the week. The Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders adding 9,357 long positions to lean hogs, increasing their position to a net-long 11,745 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report showed placements below the average trade estimate, which may support the market.	1)	Cattle marketings were lower than the trade estimate, which may keep the reaction to the Cattle on Feed report neutral.
2)	Weekly beef export sales were good at 21,500 metric tons (mt) and 64% higher than the previous week. International demand remains strong.	2)	Boxed beef prices continue to slide and will keep pressure on the cash market.
3)	Pork cutouts were up significantly Friday, indicating demand remains strong. Further gains may be seen Monday.	3)	The packers may not need to purchase hogs aggressively to begin the week. They bought a good amount on Friday at higher prices.
4)	The packers seem to be short-bought in hogs. If this is the case, they may be aggressive in the cash market Monday,	4)	The liquidation phase seems to have subsided. However, it may be difficult to regain the losses anytime soon. Traders will be cautious over ongoing demand.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Late-Week Support Helps Contracts Close Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex found some late-week support, as all three of the markets were able to close mostly higher Friday afternoon. But what was most surprising was that Friday's Feb. 1 Cattle on Feed report came out neutral to somewhat supportive. March corn is down 6 3/4 cents per bushel, and March soybean meal is down $1.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 748.63 points.

Friday's export report revealed that beef net sales of 21,500 metric tons (mt) for 2025 were up 64% from the previous week and up 35% from the previous four-week average. The three primary buyers were Japan (9,800 mt), South Korea (3,400 mt) and China (2,700 mt). Pork net sales of 25,600 mt for 2025 were up 3% from the previous week, but down 27% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (5,700 mt), Japan (4,100 mt) and Colombia (3,800 mt).

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: February live cattle up $0.08, April live cattle down $0.30; March feeder cattle up $1.60, April feeder cattle up $1.13; April lean hogs down $4.93, June lean hogs down $4.05; March corn down $0.05, May corn down $0.04.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was finally able to gain some technical support by the week's end and successfully closed fully higher on Friday afternoon. April live cattle closed $0.15 higher at $193.95, June live cattle closed $0.35 higher at $190.32, and August live cattle closed $0.57 higher at $188.97. Friday afternoon's Feb. 1 USDA Cattle on Feed report was also slightly supportive, which could potentially help traders advance the contracts higher again early next week.

Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded for $199, which is $4 lower than last week's weighted average, but Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $315, which is $5 lower than last week's weighted average. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 107,000 head -- 7,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 9,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated to be around 563,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago but 27,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.86 ($310.77) and select down $0.62 ($302.56) with a movement of 174 loads (95.92 loads of choice, 10.24 loads of select, 45.77 loads of trim and 22.18 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Until the throughput picks up, it's likely that cash prices are going to trend lower.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was also able to close higher as the market rallied alongside the live cattle complex. March feeders closed $1.12 higher at $267.95, April feeders closed $1.17 higher at $267.55, and May feeders closed $0.85 higher at $265.92. But what was most exciting for the feeder cattle complex was seeing that Friday's Cattle on Feed report came in slightly supportive, as placements weren't as high as they were projected to be. With the added support of the COF report and the continued support of buyer demand in the countryside, one could argue that next week, the market may be able to continue its upward trend. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers and traded $6 to $9 higher, and steer calves sold $8 to $11 higher. Feeder heifers and heifer calves sold $3 to $8 higher, except those weighing 500 to 600 pounds, which traded $10 higher. Slaughter cows sold $7 to $11 higher with the biggest advancement seen on the lean cows. Slaughter bulls traded $5 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 68%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/20/2025: up $0.02, $278.84.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex rounded out the week mixed as the nearby contracts closed slightly lower, but the rest of the contracts were able to maintain their slightly higher edge through the day's end. April lean hogs closed $0.85 lower at $87.67, June lean hogs closed $0.32 higher at $100.62 and July lean hogs closed $0.50 higher at $101.95. The deferred contracts were able to close higher thanks to the support that came from this morning's export report, along with the slight uptick in domestic pork demand Friday as well. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.64 with a weighted average price of $90.08 on 2,140 head. Pork cutouts totaled 357.18 loads with 300.91 loads of pork cuts and 56.27 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.04, $97.07. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 481,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 125,000 head. The CME lean hog index 2/19/2025: up $0.24, $91.22.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers were aggressive in this week's cash market, and next week, their interest will depend on whether they are still short-bought or not.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Technical Support Mildly Appears

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex has finally found some technical support late in the week, which is partly because of the morning's favorable export report. Later this afternoon, the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released, which will be a big ticket item for the market. March corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 463.62 points.

Friday's export report shared that beef net sales of 21,500 mt for 2025 were up 64% from the previous week and up 35% from the previous 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Japan (9,800 mt), South Korea (3,400 mt) and China (2,700 mt). Pork net sales of 25,600 mt for 2025 were up 3% from the previous week, but down 27% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (5,700 mt), Japan (4,100 mt) and Colombia (3,800 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is thankfully trading mildly higher into Friday's noon hour after receiving a supportive export sales report this morning. The change in market direction comes as a huge sigh of relief for traders (and everyone else involved in the marketplace) as it was concerning that the contracts were growing closer and closer to threatening the market's 100-day moving average. And if the complex happened to break below that threshold -- bearishness would have undoubtedly overcome the complex. April live cattle are up $0.57 at $194.37, June live cattle are up $0.67 at $190.65 and August live cattle are up $0.85 at $189.25. A few more cash cattle sales have developed throughout the morning with prices full steady with the week's decline. So far this week, Southern live cattle have traded for mostly $199, which is $4.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle have traded for $315, which is $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. For cattle left on showlists asking prices remain firm in the South at $200 plus and in the North at $316 plus.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.76 ($311.87) and select up $0.90 ($304.08) with a movement of 98 loads (72.05 loads of choice, 6.06 loads of select, 5.96 loads of trim and 13.92 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also trading higher into Friday's noon hour as the market is thankful to see the added support of the live cattle contracts higher trend. It wouldn't be all that surprising to see the market grow a little anxious this afternoon as it's up in the air what could come later with the Cattle on Feed report. Placements are expected to be higher than a year ago but until the chips fall -- you never really know. I do want to make a special note that it's important to remember that last year placements in January were down 7% because of the brutally cold temperatures and snow accumulations. So logically, one would expect placements to be higher than a year ago, but with Mexican cattle imports banned still during the month of January, there is a case to be made that placements may simply be steady. Time will tell. March feeders are up $1.82 at $268.62, April feeders are up $1.92 at $268.30 and May feeders are up $1.80 at $266.87.

LEAN HOGS:

Friday's supportive export report has also helped the lean hog complex find a little stability as well. Also, helping trader's is the fact that morning pork cutout values are higher, which is a significant relief given the sharp decline prices saw earlier this week. But it is important to note that the belly jump $18.17 which is greatly influencing the carcass price. April lean hogs are down $0.22 at $88.30, June lean hogs are up $0.70 at $101.00 and July lean hogs are up $0.75 at $102.20.

The projected lean hog index for 2/20/2025 is down $0.69 at $90.53, and the actual index for 2/19/2025 is up $0.24 at $91.22. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.80 with a weighted average price of $90.25, ranging from $87.00 to $93.00 on 1,929 head and a five-day rolling average of $91.91. Pork cutouts total 246.37 loads with 209.51 loads of pork cuts and 36.86 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $5.16, $99.19.

 

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders to Position Ahead of the Report Today

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle traded lower than anticipated Thursday. Southern live cattle traded $4.00 lower with Northern dressed cattle trading $5.00 lower. It has not paid off to hold out for the past three weeks. Feedlots are willing to sell before prices decline further. The current market is feeding on itself as cattle are sold to avoid further weakness. The Cattle on Feed report will be released after Friday's close with traders expecting higher placements than a year ago. The average estimate for the Cattle on Feed report is for on-feed numbers at 99.3% of a year ago with a range of 98.7% to 100.0%. Placements are expected at 103.0% with a wide range of 98.6% to 106.1%. Marketings are estimated at 102.2%, ranging from 101.6% to 102.5%. Boxed beef prices were lower on Thursday with choice down $1.26 and select down $0.58.

Hog futures had a second day of liquidation Thursday as stops were hit. Traders have not liked the weakness of cutouts as it may reflect weaker demand. Cutouts were down Thursday, posting a loss of $1.49. The National Daily Direct Hog report showed cash down $2.54. Packers have been reducing slaughter this week, attempting to support cutout prices and improve margins. Futures may bounce Friday as the past few times the market had sold off quickly the weakness only lasted two days. Short-covering may take place ahead of the weekend.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures may have factored in the lower cash and a potentially negative Cattle on Feed report. Traders may cover short positions ahead of the report and the weekend.	1)	Lower cash cattle trade and the weakness of boxed beef may keep the downtrend intact.
2)	Feeder cattle may be developing a sideways trading pattern, providing traders the confidence to buy back into the market.	2)	If weekly beef export sales are low on the report Friday, it may keep further pressure on the market as international demand might be slowing.
3)	Hog futures have finished two days of liquidation. If the recent pattern holds, the market should bounce Friday.	3)	Hog futures closed near the lows Thursday and could result in follow-through selling at least to begin Friday. .
4)	Pork cutouts have shown a substantial decline this week. The lower prices should stimulate demand.	4)	Packers have been reducing slaughter to improve margins and be less aggressive with purchases. This could back up hogs in the country.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Pressure Continues to Whittle on Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a dreadful day for the livestock complex as the contracts continued to bleed lower as the market continues to lack the necessary technical support to put a bottom in the market's current move. Some cash cattle trade did develop -- but prices were marked $4.00 to $5.00 lower than last week's weighted average. March corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $1.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 450.94 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The only good thing that developed throughout Thursday's trade is that although the futures complex traded lower -- thank God prices remained above the market's 100-day moving average. April live cattle closed $0.97 lower at $193.80, June live cattle closed $0.95 lower at $189.97, and August live cattle closed $0.77 lower at $188.40. The market's 100-day moving average is well within a day's worth of trade, so monitoring that threshold remains imperative, as a close below it would be extremely bearish. Some light trade was reported in the cash cattle market throughout the day as Southern live cattle traded for $199, which is $4.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for $315, which is $5.00 lower than last week's weighted average. 

Thursday's is estimated at 117,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.26 ($312.63) and select down $0.58 ($303.18) with a movement of 101 loads (62.54 loads of choice, 21.45 loads of select, 5.74 loads of trim and 11.10 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week. At this point, any more trade that develops likely remains steady with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex endured a painful day as the market again dipped below its 40-day moving average without receiving the necessary technical support it needed. March feeders closed $2.20 lower at $266.82, April feeders closed $2.22 lower at $266.37 and May feeders closed $1.97 lower at $265.07. Not helping matters is Friday's monthly Cattle on Feed report that is expected to show placements will be higher than a year ago, which causes the market some anxiousness. But that's one of the problems with the COF reports because it makes logical sense that placements should be greater than a year ago, given that just this past month Mexican cattle imports were allowed to resume to the U.S. after a two-month hiatus. At La Junta Livestock Commission in La Junta, Colorado, compared to last week, feeder steers weighing 500 pounds or less sold sharply higher, while steers weighing 500 pounds or more traded mostly $2.00 to $4.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold $1.00 to $4.00 higher across all weighted groups. The CME feeder cattle index 2/19/2025: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

It was another painful day of significant losses for the lean hog complex as not only did the futures market close lower -- but so did cash prices and pork cutout values. The market is desperately hoping that Friday's export report shares the news of strong sales to countries abroad because the domestic demand pulse in the U.S. isn't helping the market right now. But once again today, it was the belly that significantly caused the carcass price's decline as it alone fell $7.46. April lean hogs closed $1.22 lower at $88.52, June lean hogs closed $1.37 lower at $100.30 and July lean hogs closed $1.15 lower at $101.45.

Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.54 with a weighted average price of $89.44 on 1,386 head. Pork cutouts totaled 323.95 loads, with 297.33 loads of pork cuts and 26.62 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.49, $94.03. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 473,000 head -- 13,000 head less than a week ago and 15,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/18/2025: up $0.79, $90.98.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Friday's cash hog market likely sees less interest as packers have likely secured their needs for the week.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Prices Dip Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been a disappointing day thus far for the livestock complex as all three of the livestock markets are trading lower, as technical support simply isn't available right now. Still, no cash cattle trade has developed, but packer demand should improve at any time. March corn is up 1 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $0.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 547.89 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The market has decided to add yet another down leg to the charts as the live cattle complex continues to dive lower. The morning's regression is modest, but it feels gut wrenching given the mass position lost since the end of January. April live cattle are down $1.37 at $193.40, June live cattle are down $1.25 at $189.67 and August live cattle are down $1.02 at $188.15. If the market happens to dip below it' 100-day moving average, more downward pressure is likely, as that's a bearish signal. A few bids are currently on the table at $198 live in Texas, and $200 live and $315 dressed in Iowa. Still no cattle have sold today, but packer interest could improve at any time now. Asking prices are firm in the South at $202 to $205, but are still not established in the North.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.80 ($312.09) and select up $0.25 ($304.01) with a movement of 63 loads (38.29 loads of choice, 16.39 loads of select, 5.50 loads of trim and 3.27 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The positive move above the market's 40-day moving average in the spot March contract earlier this week is no longer a reality, as the contracts are trading $1.00 to $2.00 lower in Thursday's noon hour. Upon seeing the live cattle complex trade lower yet again, technical uncertainty starts to again take root in the feeder cattle complex. But I think it's important to remember that although feeder cattle prices have softened slightly compared to recent weeks (partly because of the decline in the futures complex, and partly because of weather challenges), the CME feeder cattle index is still extremely high, as it closed at $278.51 Wednesday afternoon. This continues to prove that demand is still strong despite the futures market's weakness.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is enduring another painstaking day of continued loss, as pork cutout values and traders are currently finding one thing in common -- lower prices. April lean hogs are down $1.17 at $88.57, June lean hogs are down $1.12 at $100.55 and July lean hogs are down $0.97 at $101.62. Again today, the carcass price is being pulled lower, mainly by the belly's $9.16 drop, which is problematic for traders as they desperately yearn to see consistent consumer demand.

The projected lean hog index for 2/19/2025 is up $0.24 at $91.22, and the actual index for 2/18/2025 is up $0.79 at $90.98. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.32 with a weighted average price of $89.45, ranging from $88.00 to $90.00 on 686 head and a five-day rolling average of $91.25. Pork cutouts total 200.09 loads with 184.75 loads of pork cuts and 15.34 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.28, $94.24.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures May Show Further Liquidation

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders may be cautious the rest of the week as cash is expected to trade lower and the Cattle on Feed report will be released after the close on Friday. Traders may be trying to defend their long positions or taking some profits on short positions to prepare for cash info and the report. The average estimate for the Cattle on Feed report is for on-feed numbers at 99.3% of a year ago. Placements are expected at 103.0%. Marketings are estimated at 102.2%. As usual, there is a wide range for placements ranging from 98.6% to 106.1%. Boxed beef prices were less than stellar on Wednesday with choice down $1.88 and select up $0.05. Packers continue to reduce slaughter and remain less aggressive with purchases. This may have feedlots moving more cattle at lower prices rather than holding for yet again lower prices. Feeder cattle futures failed to follow through on Tuesday's strength, leaving the potential for further weakness.

Hogs were hit hard Wednesday due to sharply lower cutouts Tuesday and weakness again on Wednesday. It is unusual to see pork cutouts drop substantially for two consecutive days. The futures are following the pattern set since the end of last year in which a strong price increase is met with a sharp retracement. Pork cutouts fell $3.95, setting a bearish tone for Thursday. Bellies posted a decline of $16.75, dragging the complex lower. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a gain of $0.19, but that may be the last gain for the week. The sharp decline of futures will be difficult to overcome anytime soon.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures may have been overcorrected to the downside ahead of the Cattle on Feed report. The market may rebound somewhat once the report is released.	1)	The cattle market is having difficulty finding support. The inability to bounce higher may trigger increased selling.
2)	Lower boxed beef prices may again stimulate demand. Lower cattle supplies will be around for a while.	2)	The weakness of boxed beef indicates demand has slowed and lower prices may be needed to stimulate demand.
3)	Hog futures may be following the pattern seen since December. A sharp decline will be met with renewed buying interest as strong pork demand should continue.	3)	Weekly hog weights are 1.6 pounds higher than a year ago at an average weight of 289.6 pounds.
4)	Weekly hog weights declined by 0.4 pounds from the previous week. Declining weights may tighten supply.	4)	April hog futures gapped lower and closed the chart gap remaining from Feb. 5. Follow-through selling is expected due to the weakness of cutouts